Congressional Approval Low -- Will a Democratic Tide Hit in November?

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With midterm congressional elections about eight months away, Americans hold a very dim view of the job Congress is doing. The low ratings are not unprecedented for an election year, but are among the worst Gallup has measured in more than a decade. In past midterm elections, there has been a greater net shift of seats from one party to the other when Congress' approval rating has been low. If there is not a significant change in the public's mood over the next several months, a low opinion of Congress coupled with an unpopular Republican president could make Republicans very vulnerable in the fall.

A recent Gallup Poll, conducted March 13-16, 2006, finds just 27% of Americans approving (and 65% disapproving) of the way Congress is handling its job. Congress' approval rating has been below 30% since October 2005, and the current rating marks the continuation of a slow descent from record-high congressional approval after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

In fact, the recent ratings of Congress are the worst Gallup has measured in more than a decade. An Oct. 22-25, 1994, Gallup Poll shows 23% of Americans approving of Congress just before a Republican landslide in that year's elections. The lowest approval ratings Gallup has recorded for Congress were 18% in March 1992 and 19% in June 1979.

Not surprisingly, Republicans (45%) are much more likely to approve of the Republican-controlled Congress at this point than are independents (20%) and Democrats (17%), but even half of Republicans disapprove.

Congressional Approval and the Election

The low congressional job ratings stand in stark contrast to the last midterm election year. In October 2002, 50% of Americans approved of Congress, and approval had been as high as 63% earlier that year. In that election, the incumbent Republican Party gained seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, an unusual occurrence in a midterm election year.

Ratings of Congress generally track other "mood of the nation" indicators, such as Americans' assessments of how things are going in the United States in general, perceptions of the economy, and presidential job approval. None of these are currently rated positively. Research has demonstrated a strong link between these factors and midterm election outcomes, particularly presidential approval and measures of economic health. Generally speaking, the worse the ratings on these measures, the worse the incumbent party fares in the elections.

During recent midterm election years, low congressional approval ratings have been associated with greater shifts in the partisan composition of the U.S. House of Representatives. In the five elections since 1974 in which Congress' approval rating was below 40%, the average net change in U.S. House seats from one party to the other was 29. In the three midterm elections in which congressional approval ratings were above 40%, the average change was five seats.

The direction of the net change is tied more closely to the party controlling the White House than the party controlling Congress. In the last eight midterm elections, the president's party suffered a net loss of U.S. House seats six times, while the party in control of Congress had a net loss of seats three times. During two of the elections, 1978 and 1994, the same party controlled Congress and the White House.

The fact that both congressional and presidential approval ratings are low does not bode well for the Republican Party. The current situation is similar to the political environment in 1978 and 1994, when Democrats controlled both the legislative and executive branches -- which were both unpopular. Those elections resulted in net losses for the Democratic Party of 11 and 53 seats, respectively.

Such a dramatic change may not be as likely this year, as recent redrawing of U.S. House districts has resulted in an increasing proportion of safe seats for both parties. But if the political environment does not improve for the Republicans between now and November, Republican members of Congress will find out whether their districts are safe enough to insulate them from a possibly strong Democratic tide.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 13-16, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?