American Public Opinion on Iraq: Five Conclusions

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A number of extraordinary events last week underscored the position of Iraq as the most significant public policy issue facing the United States at this point in time. President Bush not only convened an all-day meeting of his top advisors at Camp David to review the Iraq situation, he also flew out in the middle of the night to appear in Baghdad with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Additionally, both the Senate and the House debated Iraq resolutions near the end of last week, with the Senate defeating a measure that would have dictated a specific withdrawal timetable, and the House passing a resolution that -- among other things -- explicitly rejected the idea of a timetable.

Pollsters have probably asked Americans more questions about the Iraq situation over the last three years than any other specific issue, and as a result a great deal is known about the American public's views on this controversial and important topic.

Here are five key points summarizing where the American public stands on the issue of Iraq at this time.

1. The majority of Americans -- albeit a small majority -- view the initiation of the war in Iraq as a mistake and say that, in retrospect, it has not been worth the costs.

Poll assessments of the basic decision to go to war in Iraq can vary based on two factors: the exact way in which the question is asked and what is happening in Iraq at the time of the survey.

In general, questions that explicitly spell out the costs of the war obtain more negative responses from the American public than those that do not.

Gallup has asked a basic question about the validity of war involvement stretching back to the 1950s: "In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to [name of country goes here], do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to [name of country here], or not?"

The latest result from this measure as applied to the Iraq war is from June 9-11, after the death of insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, but before the president's trip to Baghdad and last week's congressional debates. This poll shows that a slight majority -- 51% -- say the war in Iraq was a mistake, while 46% say it was not.

Public opinion in response to this measure has varied significantly since the war began in March 2003. Americans were highly likely to say that the war was not a mistake just after the war began, but by June 2004, the percentage criticizing involvement had moved above the majority level. Opinion on the war became more positive in September 2004, after the Republican presidential convention, moved back above 50% by January of the next year, and has fluctuated from that point forward. The most negative reading on this measure came in September 2005, when 59% said that it had been a mistake to get involved in Iraq, and only 39% said that it had not. The current 51% reading is a drop from the 57% recorded in two polls in March and April of this year.

The last time less than a majority of Americans said that involvement was a mistake was in December 2005.

Two recent questions asked in NBC News/Wall Street Journal and CBS News polls show more negative results:

In both of these questions the respondent is, in essence, given an explicit rationale for opposing the war. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, respondents were given this wording: "… not worth the number of U.S. military casualties and the financial cost of the war," and in the CBS News poll they were given "… worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq …" The more negative response to the CBS News poll question is most probably the result of the fact that the only positive rationale offered was "… the result of the war …", while the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll included the phrase "… removing Saddam Hussein from power ..."

Regardless of wording, however, a majority of respondents to both of these questions say that the war was not worth it.

2. About half or slightly more of Americans believe that the Iraqi people may eventually be better off as a result of the war, but there is fairly widespread agreement that the broader aims of the war -- helping in the fight against terrorism and spreading democracy to the Middle East -- have not been accomplished. Americans in particular recognize that the war in Iraq has diminished the image of the United States around the world.

Gallup recently asked Americans to ponder a list of groups and objectives, and to indicate whether the war had made each better off, worse off, or had made no difference. As reviewed in a recent analysis [see related item] in no instance did a majority of Americans believe that the groups or objectives had been made better off as a result of the war, although just slightly less than half did say that the Iraqi people are better off as a result of the war. Still, this is not necessarily a strong result given the degree to which the administration has discussed the removal of the dictator Saddam Hussein as a significant achievement for the Iraqi people. Less than a majority believe that the rest are better off as a result of the war.

Earlier this spring, Gallup asked about the impact of the war on Iraq in a slightly different way, and found a slightly more positive read, with over two-thirds of Americans saying that Iraq will be better off in the long run as a result of the U.S. and British invasion.

Thus, it appears possible that a majority -- perhaps even a substantial majority -- of Americans may at some point agree that Iraq per se is better off as a result of the U.S. intervention in that country. But at this point, it appears less likely that a majority of Americans will agree that other objectives of the war as stated by the administration have been accomplished.

3. There is no clear-cut majority guidance from the American people to their elected representatives about what to do now in Iraq. About as many Americans oppose a timetable for withdrawal as favor it.

Newly appointed White House spokesman Tony Snow this past Sunday on Fox News Sunday reinforced the oft-stated administration position that decisions on the war (and other policy matters) are not made on the basis of public opinion: "… the president -- and I've heard him say this many times. You can't conduct the war based on public opinion polls. You have to do it as commander-in-chief on the basis of what is the right thing to do. Let me give you an example. A lot of people seem to argue that, you know, we need to set a timetable, we need to get out. You've got to keep in mind the situation in Iraq is critical in a lot of ways. Iraq is not the theater in the war on terror. It is one of many places in the larger war on terror."

In this situation, the admonition from Snow against governing by polls is not needed. The polls do not show that the majority of Americans strongly favor an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, nor for that matter do they show that Americans want an explicit timetable for withdrawal. The public is quite divided.

This is Gallup's most recent question on this issue.

As can be seen, Americans are split right down the middle. Forty-nine percent want an immediate withdrawal or a deadline of 12 months, but 48% say that the withdrawal should take as long as is needed, or that the United States should send more troops.

Other polls show similar results. A recent CBS News poll, for example, found that 48% agreed that U.S. troops should stay in Iraq as long as needed in order to make sure it is a stable democracy even if that takes a long time, while 46% agreed that U.S. troops should leave as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable.

4. Americans' views of the war in Iraq are extraordinarily polarized on the basis of politics.

The basic idea that the public's views on policy issues are sharply divided along partisan lines is not startling or new, but it is important to reiterate the degree to which this holds true in terms of the war in Iraq.

On the basic "mistake" question reviewed previously, for example, the views of Republicans and Democrats are essentially mirror images of one another. Only 19% of Republicans in Gallup's latest survey say that it was a mistake to have become involved in Iraq, while 79% say it was not. Among Democrats, 78% say it was a mistake, while 20% say it was not. This is about as polarized as we find opinion on major policy issues.

Some of this polarization arises from the fact that this war is, to an unusual degree, "Bush's war," given that the administration essentially created the rationale for the war and pursued it despite the absence of a dramatic precipitating event immediately preceding the war. This puts the war on a different front than the Korean War, for example, which originated as an almost instant response to the North Korean invasion of South Korea in 1950. Even the controversial Vietnam War was less of a partisan war than Iraq. A Democratic president was responsible for the escalation of the war, but it continued for years under the subsequent Republican administration.

Also, unlike public policy issues in which the average American has some personal exposure and life experience (such as abortion, race relations, gay rights, healthcare, etc.), Americans are almost totally dependent on obtaining information about the war in Iraq from others. In situations like these, it is perhaps not surprising that Americans would rely on guidance and direction from party leaders, thus increasing overall polarization.

5. Americans continue to view the Iraq war as the most important problem facing the country today and believe that it should be the top priority for Congress and the administration.

The fact that the Bush administration and Congress spent a substantial amount of time last week reviewing and debating the war is presumably good news for the average American. There is no other issue that Americans believe is more important for these governmental entities to be debating and discussing. Iraq has been the issue at the top of the list of Gallup's monthly assessment of the most important problem facing the country since March 2004, and regularly appears at the top of the list of governmental priorities from the public's perspective.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 1-4, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?