GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans currently enjoy a thirteen-seat advantage over the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, but the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll suggests at least a 50-50 chance the GOP could lose majority control. The "generic ballot" asks voters which party's candidate they will support in their own district, and currently 48% say a Democratic candidate, while 47% say a Republican. This ballot measures the aggregate vote across the country, while the actual results are based on which candidate wins at least a plurality of the vote in each of 435 House districts. In theory, a party could win each district with just over 50% of the vote and thus win all of the 435 seats, but in practice the aggregate vote has been a reliable indicator of which party actually wins majority control.
The current results have a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, suggesting that Democrats could be leading by as much as 50% to 45%, or Republicans could be leading by 49% to 46%. Thus, it is clearly too close to call the winner, with the best estimate suggesting the Republicans are more likely to lose than to gain seats -- although it is a virtual toss-up as to whether they will lose enough seats to relinquish majority control to the Democrats. There is also an outside chance Republicans could gain seats in the House.
Gore supporters vote Democratic by a margin of 87% to 10%, while Bush supporters vote Republican by a slightly lower margin of 85% to 12%. Nader supporters vote mostly Democratic, by 64% to 25%.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted November 4-5, 2000 with a representative sample of 2,386 survey respondents, aged 18+, deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: 1) The Democratic Party's candidate or 2) The Republican Party's candidate]?
RECENT TREND
|
Democratic |
Republican |
Undecided/ |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
|||
|
2000 Nov 4-5 |
48 |
47 |
5 |
|
2000 Oct 26-28 |
45 |
49 |
6 |
|
2000 Oct 23-25 |
44 |
47 |
9 |
|
2000 Oct 16-18 |
45 |
50 |
5 |
|
2000 Oct 13-15 |
47 |
46 |
7 |
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
46 |
46 |
8 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
48 |
46 |
6 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
47 |
48 |
5 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
47 |
47 |
6 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
48 |
46 |
6 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
45 |
48 |
7 |
|
2000 Feb 4-6 |
44 |
49 |
7 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
46 |
45 |
9 |
|
2000 Jan 13-16 |
42 |
48 |
10 |
|
2000 Jan 7-10 |
49 |
45 |
6 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2000 Nov 4-5 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
2000 Oct 26-28 |
46 |
46 |
8 |
|
2000 Oct 23-25 |
46 |
44 |
10 |
|
2000 Oct 16-18 |
48 |
45 |
7 |
|
2000 Oct 13-15 |
50 |
41 |
9 |
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
48 |
43 |
9 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
46 |
47 |
7 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
49 |
42 |
9 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
46 |
45 |
9 |
|
2000 Feb 4-6 |
46 |
45 |
9 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
46 |
45 |
9 |
|
2000 Jan 7-10 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
|
1999 Nov 18-21 |
47 |
43 |
10 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
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