Attitudes Toward Iraq: Update

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Congressional Democrats early this week authored a letter to President Bush calling for "a more limited mission" in Iraq, saying that the "open-ended commitment in Iraq that you have embraced cannot and should not be sustained." The letter goes on to say: "We believe that a phased redeployment of U.S. forces from Iraq should begin before the end of 2006". The letter was signed by Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, and a number of other House and Senate Democrats.

The White House has resisted efforts to establish a strict timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, arguing that there is a need for flexibility depending on circumstances on the ground.

What direction would the American people give their elected representatives on this situation in Iraq?

One answer to that question comes from a basic Gallup Poll question that gives Americans four options: withdraw all troops immediately, withdraw all troops by August 2007, withdraw troops but take as many years to do this as are needed to turn control over to the Iraqis, or send more troops to Iraq.

Several points are clear:

• A majority of 55% of Americans currently favor the withdrawal of troops either immediately or within a year's time (by August 2007), although only about one in five favor immediate withdrawal.

• Just about a third -- 35% -- believe that troops should be withdrawn without a strict timetable and only when the control of the country can be turned over to the Iraqis.

• Only a few Americans want more troops to be sent to Iraq.

Public opinion on this question has not changed significantly over the last year. The range of support for either immediate withdrawal or a one-year timetable for withdrawal has been just six percentage points across the six times this question has been asked, from the high point of 55% in the most recent July 28-30, 2006 survey to the low point of 49% measured in June of this year.

While the percentage of Americans who favor a withdrawal of all U.S. troops either now or within a year is not a supermajority, it is a majority, suggesting that the Democratic leadership is speaking to an issue that resonates with many Americans.

A recent New York Times/CBS News Poll asked about a timetable in a different way, but in similar fashion found a 56% to 40% split in those who said the U.S. should set a timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq:

Do you think the United States should or should not set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq?

One of the most significant findings about public opinion and the Iraq war over the past three years has been the remarkable partisan divisions in attitudes towards the war. Republicans generally hew to the administration policy, Democrats overwhelmingly oppose it, and independents are somewhat in the middle.

That partisan distinction is starkly evident in the most recent Gallup Poll on the withdrawal question:

Here are four different plans the U.S. could follow in dealing with the war in Iraq. Which ONE do you prefer -- [ROTATED: withdraw all troops from Iraq immediately, withdraw all troops by August 2007 -- that is, in 12 months' time, withdraw troops, but take as many years to do this as are needed to turn control over to the Iraqis, (or) send more troops to Iraq]?

Although the relationship between party and preference for policy on withdrawing troops form Iraq is not perfect, it is strong. The majority of Republicans favor withdrawing troops only when the Iraqis can take over. Over three-quarters of Democrats favor either immediate withdrawal or withdrawal within 12 months. Independents break closer to the Democratic point of view than towards the Republican point of view.

In short, the recent Democratic call for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq within a fixed timetable would appear to be strongly supported by Democrats, supported by a majority of independents, but rejected by the majority of Republicans.

Mistake?

The July 28-30, 2006 poll included an update on Gallup's "mistake" question that is designed to measure basic support for the war: "In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?"

There has not been much change on this measure all year. Between 50% and 57% of Americans have said that the war was a mistake, while between 41% and 47% have said that it was not.

Gallup has asked this question four times in June and July, with an average of 54% saying that the U.S. involvement in Iraq was a mistake, and average of 44% saying that it was not.

Priority

A number of recent Gallup Poll questions have reinforced the fact that Americans perceive that resolving the situation in Iraq is the nation's top priority at this time. It appears at the top of the list when Americans are asked to name the country's most important problem, Americans say it is top priority for the president and Congress to deal with, and a recent poll shows that Americans say a candidates' position on Iraq is the top criteria they will take into account in casting their vote for Congress this fall.

Survey Methods

The latest results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 28-30, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.