2006 in Context of Previous Mid-term Elections

These data and analysis focus on four key measures that Gallup has tracked over the years in midterm elections. This history provides a framework for forecasting the results of this year’s election. The four measures are: congressional generic ballot, presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the way things are going in the country.

Democratic Lead in the Congressional Generic Ballot
(Percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent for Republican candidate)
Among Registered Voters

Year	Election outcome	Net change in Dem. seats	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep. (1)	Sep. (2)	Sep. (3)	Oct. (1)	Oct. (2)	Oct. (3)	Final Poll
1974	59-41 D	+43					26		32	28	25		28		26
1978	55-46 D	-11	26	24		22	24	19	24	24	24	25	17
1982	56-44 D	+26	11	20		16	17	14	18	17					18
1986	--	+5				10		0	13			1				8
1990	54-46 D	+9			4	5				2			7		5	10	7
1994	54-47 R	-53		-1				6	-5	0	-4		-3	0	-3	3	0
1998	50-50 R	+5	11			1	5		4	4	13	4	9	1	3	9	7
2002	52-48 R	-3	-3	-4	0	7	2	2	6	8	3	5		5	9		5
2006	--	--	6	11	16	13		12	10	6	12	9		23		15	11

Democratic Lead in the Congressional Generic Ballot
(Percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent for Republican candidate)
Among Likely Voters

Year	Election outcome	Net change in Dem. seats	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep. (1)	Sep. (2)	Sep. (3)	Oct. (1)	Oct. (2)	Oct. (3)	Final Poll
1974	59-41 D	+43													18
1978	55-46 D	-11														10
1982	56-44 D	+26													10
1986	--	+5
1990	54-46 D	+9														8
1994	54-47 R	-53													-12	-10	-7
1998	50-50 R	+5				-6			0	-4	1	1	6	1	-2	4	0
2002	52-48 R	-3										4		1	3		-6
2006	--	--										0		23		13	7

Presidential Job Approval
(Percent saying approve)
Among National Adults

Year	Election outcome	Net change in Dem. seats	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep. (1)	Sep. (2)	Sep. (3)	Oct. (1)	Oct. (2)	Oct. (3)	Final Poll
1974	59-41 D	+43	27	27	26	26	26	27	24	48	66		50		53
1978	55-46 D	-11	54	49	49	41	42	43	40	41	42	45	48			49
1982	56-44 D	+26	48	47	46	44	45	45	42	42		42			42
1986	--	+5	64		63	62	68	63	63	61		62				63
1990	54-46 D	+9	80	73	71	68	65	68	62	75	76	73	67	66	55	54
1994	54-47 R	-53	55	53	51	50	51	46	43	41	39	42	44	42	41	48
1998	50-50 R	+5	62	66	65	65	64	60	63	63	62	63	64	63	65	65
2002	52-48 R	-3	84	82	79	76	76	73	72	67	66	70	67	67	62	67	63
2006	--	--	43	40	37	35	32	37	40	40	39	44		37	37	37	38

NOTE: August 1974 presidential approval results represent the average of Richard Nixon's final approval rating (24%) and Gerald Ford's first approval rating (71%).

Congressional Job Approval
(Percent saying approve)
Among National Adults

Year	Election outcome	Net change in Dem. seats	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep. (1)	Sep. (2)	Sep. (3)	Oct. (1)	Oct. (2)	Oct. (3)	Final Poll
1974	59-41 D	+43				30				47				35
1978	55-46 D	-11									29
1982	56-44 D	+26						29
1986	--	+5				42
1990	54-46 D	+9												28	23	24
1994	54-47 R	-53		28	29				27					21		23
1998	50-50 R	+5	42	57		49	44				55			46		44
2002	52-48 R	-3	62	62	63	57	57	52	54	46	52			50
2006	--	--	27	25	27	23	21	27	29	27	29			24	23	26	26

General Mood of the Nation
(Percent saying satisfied with the way things are going)
Among National Adults

Year	Election outcome	Net change in Dem. seats	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep. (1)	Sep. (2)	Sep. (3)	Oct. (1)	Oct. (2)	Oct. (3)	Final Poll
1974	59-41 D	+43
1978	55-46 D	-11
1982	56-44 D	+26				25						24
1986	--	+5			66			69			58
1990	54-46 D	+9		55					45	43	51		37		29	31
1994	54-47 R	-53	35	36	35	32	33		33							31
1998	50-50 R	+5	63	62		58	59			62
2002	52-48 R	-3	65	61	61	61	56	52	49	47	47			47			48
2006	--	--	35	35	29	27	25	30	32	28	32				30		35

2006 in Context of Previous Mid-term Elections

Related Topics Include:

The Five Conditions Assessment