GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- About six out of ten registered voters across the country are paying "quite a lot" of attention to the presidential election this year, a number that has been remarkably consistent since Labor Day. In January, only 33% of registered voters were paying quite a lot of attention. Attention rose to 55% in March, in the midst of the presidential primaries, and then sank back to as low as 42% in July. Interest rose again in August, as the Republican and Democratic conventions got under way, and has been at roughly the current levels since then. One exception to this pattern was the period between September 19 and 23 -- in the midst of the Olympics -- when attention sagged to the 54% to 57% level.
Attention levels this year are generally similar to those in 1996. That year, attention ultimately peaked at about 70% in late October. The current trends suggest a similar pattern in 2000. While this one variable cannot by itself predict the ultimate turnout on Election Day, the trends suggest that it could be similar to turnout for 1996 -- which was just a little under half of the voting-age population.
Here are the numbers:
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% Paying Quite a Lot of Attention to the Presidential Campaign |
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|
Based on Registered Voters
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Dates below represent the last day in a 3-day rolling average |
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|
1996 |
2000 |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
6-Sep |
61 |
59 |
|
7-Sep |
62 |
57 |
|
8-Sep |
63 |
58 |
|
9-Sep |
65 |
60 |
|
10-Sep |
63 |
63 |
|
11-Sep |
60 |
64 |
|
12-Sep |
58 |
60 |
|
13-Sep |
58 |
59 |
|
14-Sep |
59 |
59 |
|
15-Sep |
60 |
60 |
|
16-Sep |
60 |
58 |
|
17-Sep |
60 |
58 |
|
18-Sep |
57 |
59 |
|
19-Sep |
56 |
63 |
|
20-Sep |
56 |
60 |
|
21-Sep |
57 |
57 |
|
22-Sep |
57 |
54 |
|
23-Sep |
59 |
56 |
|
24-Sep |
60 |
61 |
|
25-Sep |
61 |
63 |
|
26-Sep |
58 |
64 |
|
27-Sep |
56 |
62 |
|
28-Sep |
57 |
60 |
|
29-Sep |
62 |
60 |
|
30-Sep |
64 |
61 |
|
1-Oct |
62 |
63 |
|
2-Oct |
60 |
64 |
|
3-Oct |
62 |
60 |
|
4-Oct |
64 |
60 |
|
5-Oct |
60 |
|
|
6-Oct |
58 |
|
|
7-Oct |
59 |
|
|
8-Oct |
60 |
|
|
9-Oct |
61 |
|
|
10-Oct |
62 |
|
|
11-Oct |
62 |
|
|
12-Oct |
64 |
|
|
13-Oct |
64 |
|
|
14-Oct |
63 |
|
|
15-Oct |
63 |
|
|
16-Oct |
61 |
|
|
17-Oct |
62 |
|
|
18-Oct |
65 |
|
|
19-Oct |
68 |
|
|
20-Oct |
70 |
|
|
21-Oct |
69 |
|
|
22-Oct |
65 |
|
|
23-Oct |
66 |
|
|
24-Oct |
68 |
|
|
25-Oct |
65 |
|
|
26-Oct |
66 |
|
|
27-Oct |
69 |
|
|
28-Oct |
68 |
|
|
29-Oct |
67 |
|
|
30-Oct |
69 |
|
|
31-Oct |
71 |
|
|
1-Nov |
70 |
|
|
2-Nov |
68 |
|
|
3-Nov |
67 |
|
Who is paying the most attention to the election this year? An analysis of Gallup's latest polling, combining the nights of October 2-4, suggests that age is by far the biggest predictive variable. Only 32% of those 18-29 are paying attention to the campaign, compared to 60% of those 30 to 49, and 70% or more among those 50 and above. Attention is also higher among those with higher levels of education and with higher incomes.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,224 national adults, aged 18+, conducted October 2-4, 2000. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Results based on the subsample of 965 people who indicate they are registered to vote have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of -- 672 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.
Gallup's current likely voter estimation for 2000 assumes that 50% of the voting-age population (VAP) will turn out to vote. (In 1996, turnout among the VAP was 49%. The average turnout rate in all presidential elections since 1980 is approximately 52%.)