GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted immediately after the first debate between Vice President Al Gore and Governor George W. Bush Tuesday evening, shows that among registered voters who watched the two candidates exchange views on a variety of issues, 48% thought Gore did the better job, while 41% said Bush did. Additionally, when asked to rate each candidate individually on how well he performed in the debate, 76% said Gore did an excellent or good job, while 24% said fair or poor. Bush fared only slightly worse, with 70% rating his performance as excellent or good, and 27% as poor.
The sample of voters includes respondents who had participated in Gallup polls conducted over the past five days and had indicated they intended to watch the debate. Prior to the event, they supported Gore over Bush in the presidential race by 49% to 46%, a margin that is reflective of Gallup's polls among likely voters over the past several days. Gore's margin of victory in the debate is slightly larger than his lead over Bush in the presidential contest, as Bush's supporters cited Bush the winner by a margin of 79% to 11%, while Gore's supporters cited their own candidate by the slightly greater margin of 81% to 7%.
Voters were asked two additional questions about the effect of the debate -- whether they felt more or less favorably toward each candidate because of the debate, and whether they felt more or less confident that each candidate could handle the job of being president. Responses to both questions again mirrored the voters' presidential preferences, with most of the differences between the ratings related to partisan differences. Still, voters say they have become more favorable toward Bush by 34% to 14%, while voters have become more favorable toward Gore by a smaller margin of 27% to 18%. That difference is mostly due to Bush's supporters expressing more positive feelings for their candidate and more negative feelings for their opponent than did Gore's supporters.
Despite these changes in opinion and Gore's slight advantage in voters' ratings of his debate performance, the instant effect of the debate appears negligible. Just three percent of all voters say they have changed their votes from one presidential candidate to the other -- 4% among Gore voters and 3% among Bush's voters.
While 70% and 76% of voters who watched the debate rate Gore and Bush respectively as doing an excellent or good job in the debate, most of these voters say "good" rather than "excellent." In fact, just 20% of voters say Bush did an excellent job and 25% say Gore did -- suggesting that neither candidate overwhelmed voters with his performance.
The Tuesday evening poll results are based on voters' immediate reactions to the debate, before they have had an opportunity to discuss the debate with friends and colleagues, and to be exposed to much media coverage about the event. It is quite possible that over the next several days, voters' opinions could change and indicate a more substantial impact of the debate on the election campaign.
Survey Methods
All results are based on telephone interviews with 435 registered
voters, aged 18+, who watched the debate, conducted October 3,
2000, between 10:35 and 10:55 PM, Eastern Daylight Time.
Respondents were first interviewed September 28-October 2, 2000,
when they indicated there was some chance they would watch
tonight's debate and were willing to be called back. For results
based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with
95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 5
percentage points.
Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.
First, how much of tonight's presidential debate did you happen to watch -- all or most, about half, only some, hardly any of it, or none?
All or most |
About half |
Only some |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Gore/Bush 2000 |
|||
2000 Oct 1-3 |
81 |
10 |
9 |
Clinton/Dole 1996 |
|||
1996 Oct 16 |
79 |
13 |
8 |
1996 Oct 6 |
86 |
8 |
6 |
Clinton/Bush 1992 |
|||
1992 Oct 19 |
89 |
7 |
4 |
1992 Oct 11 |
85 |
11 |
4 |
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate -- [ROTATED: Al Gore (or) George W. Bush]?
Gore/Bush 2000
|
|
|
Both/ |
|
|
2000 Oct 3 |
48% |
41 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
Clinton/Dole 1996
Clinton |
Dole |
No opinion |
|
1996 Oct 16 |
59% |
29 |
12 |
1996 Oct 6 |
51% |
32 |
17 |
Clinton/Bush/Perot 1992
|
|
|
None in particular (VOL.) |
|
||
1992 Oct 19 ^ |
28% |
28 |
37 |
7 |
* |
|
1992 Oct 16-18 ^ |
58% |
16 |
15 |
7 |
4 |
|
1992 Oct 11 ^ |
30% |
16 |
47 |
5 |
2 |
|
^ |
Wording: Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- George Bush, Bill Clinton, or Ross Perot? |
Dukakis/Bush 1988
Dukakis |
Bush |
Neither (VOL.) |
No opinion |
|
1988 Sep 27-28 |
38% |
29 |
31 |
2 |
Mondale/Reagan 1984
Mondale |
Reagan |
Neither (VOL.) |
No opinion |
|
1984 Oct 21 |
40% |
43 |
-- |
17 |
1984 Sep 28-30 |
54% |
35 |
8 |
3 |
How would you rate the job [ROTATED: Al Gore/George W. Bush] did in the debate tonight -- excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
A. Al Gore
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2000 Oct 3 |
25% |
51 |
20 |
4 |
* |
B. George W. Bush
Excellent |
Good |
Only fair |
Poor |
No opinion |
|
2000 Oct 3 |
20% |
50 |
27 |
3 |
* |
Q.103/Q.104 ROTATED
How has your opinion of Al Gore been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Gore -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
More |
Less |
Not changed much |
No |
|
Al Gore |
||||
2000 Oct 3 |
27% |
18 |
55 |
* |
Bill Clinton |
||||
1992 Oct 19 |
27% |
22 |
50 |
1 |
1992 Oct 11 |
29% |
14 |
57 |
* |
How has your opinion of George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Bush -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
More |
Less |
Not changed much |
No |
|
George W. Bush |
||||
2000 Oct 3 |
34% |
14 |
52 |
* |
Former President George Bush |
||||
1992 Oct 19 |
29% |
25 |
46 |
0 |
1992 Oct 11 |
13% |
24 |
62 |
1 |
As a result of tonight's debate, have you changed your vote from one presidential candidate to another?
Yes |
No |
No opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Gore/Bush 2000 |
|||
2000 Oct 3 |
3 |
96 |
1 |
Clinton/Dole 1996 |
|||
1996 Oct 16 |
2 |
97 |
1 |
1996 Oct 6 |
2 |
97 |
1 |
Clinton/Bush/Perot 1992 |
|||
1992 Oct 19 |
12 |
86 |
2 |
Based on your impressions of [ROTATED: Al Gore/George W. Bush] from the debate, are you more confident that he can handle the job of being president, less confident, or has your confidence in [Gore/Bush] not changed much?
A. Al Gore
|
|
|
Never |
|
|
2000 Oct 3 |
33% |
15 |
50 |
1 |
1 |
B. George W. Bush
|
|
|
Never |
|
|
2000 Oct 3 |
40% |
20 |
38 |
1 |
1 |
*Less than 0.5%