Bush Pulls Even With Gore Once Again

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican nominee George W. Bush has again pulled even with Democrat Al Gore in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup daily tracking poll of likely voters. The latest average, combining interviewing conducted Thursday, Friday and Saturday, September 21-23, shows Bush at 47% and Gore at 46%. This is almost precisely the status of the presidential race in polling conducted in late August and early September, after both conventions had been completed, and emphasizes once again the close nature of this year's presidential race.

A few days after Labor Day this year, Gore began to pull slightly away from Bush, and the vice president has led the Texas governor by margins between 3% and 10% over the last two weeks. The current figures come near the end of a week which, by most accounts, was a positive one for Bush -- including his much-publicized appearance on Oprah (and the Regis Philbin show), a newly publicized "Blueprint for the Middle Class," and various other events that some have interpreted as positive for Bush. The end of the week also saw the high-visibility move on the part of the Clinton-Gore administration to tap into the nation's strategic oil reserves -- quickly criticized by the Republicans -- although it is unclear at this point how much of an impact this one event may have had on the candidates' standings.

The closeness of the race also emphasizes the importance of the three presidential debates -- to be held October 3, 11 and 17 -- in ultimately deciding what appears to be one of the closest presidential elections in 20 years.

Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,207 adults, 18 years and older, conducted September 21-23, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Results based on the subsample of -- 979 -- people who indicate they are registered to vote have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of -- 693 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster as the Reform Party candidates, and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. Would you vote for -- [RANDOM ORDER: Al Gore and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicancandidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster, the Reform Party candidates, (or) Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke, the Green Party candidates]?

As of today do you lean toward Gore and Lieberman, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, Buchanan and Foster, the Reform Party candidates, or Nader and LaDuke, the Green Party candidates?

 

	Gore/ Lieberman		Bush/ Cheney	Buchanan/ Foster	Nader/ LaDuke	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%		%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2000 Sep 21-23	46	47		1	1	*	5
2000 Sep 20-22	48	45		*	1	*	6
2000 Sep 19-21	50	42		2	2	*	4
2000 Sep 18-20	51	41		1	3	*	4
2000 Sep 17-19	49	43		1	3	*	4
2000 Sep 16-18	48	44		*	2	1	5
2000 Sep 15-17	48	43		1	3	*	5
2000 Sep 14-16	49	41		1	3	*	6
2000 Sep 13-15	48	42		1	3	*	6
2000 Sep 12-14	49	42		1	2	1	5
2000 Sep 11-13	49	42		1	3	*	5
2000 Sep 10-12	49	41		1	4	1	4
2000 Sep 9-11	48	42		1	4	1	4
2000 Sep 8-10	49	42		1	3	1	4
2000 Sep 7-9	47	44		1	2	1	5
2000 Sep 6-8	45	46		1	2	*	6
2000 Sep 5-7	46	43		1	3	*	7
2000 Sep 4-6	47	44		*	3	*	6
2000 Aug 24-27	45	46		1	3	*	5
2000 Aug 18-19	47	46		2	3	*	2
2000 Aug 11-12 †	39	55		*	2	*	4
2000 Aug 4-5	37	54		1	4	*	4
2000 Jul 25-26 ^	39	50		1	4	1	5
2000 Jul 14-16	43	45		3	5	*	4
2000 Jun 23-25	38	50		2	6	0	4
2000 Jun 6-7	41	46		2	6	*	5
2000 Apr 28-30	41	47		4	4	1	3
Registered Voters
2000 Sep 8-10	49	40		1	3	*	7
2000 Sep 7-9	47	41		1	3	1	7
2000 Sep 6-8	46	43		1	2	*	8
2000 Sep 5-7	46	42		1	2	1	8
2000 Sep 4-6	47	41		1	3	*	8
2000 Aug 24-27	48	41		1	3	1	6
2000 Aug 18-19	48	44		1	3	*	4
2000 Aug 11-12 †	40	50		*	3	*	7
2000 Aug 4-5	35	54		1	4	*	6
2000 Jul 25-26 ^	41	46		2	4	1	6
2000 Jul 14-16	41	43		3	6	*	7
2000 Jun 23-25	40	47		3	6	0	4
2000 Jun 6-7	42	43		3	5	*	7
2000 Apr 28-30	41	43		4	4	1	7
^ Vice presidential candidates Cheney and LaDuke included on ballot beginning July 25-26, 2000
† Vice presidential candidates Lieberman and Foster included on ballot beginning August 11-12, 2000

(vol.) Volunteered response