Clinton, Obama, McCain, Giuliani Lead for 2008

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With George W. Bush serving his last term as president and Vice President Cheney having clearly removed himself as a presidential contender, the fields are wide open for both the Republican and Democratic nominations for president in 2008. According to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's early position as the Democratic Party's clear front-runner is facing somewhat of a challenge from Illinois freshman Sen. Barack Obama, while two potential candidates -- Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- continue to be neck-and-neck for the Republican Party's nomination.

The poll, conducted Nov. 9-12, finds that, among self-identified Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, Clinton leads a field of 13 possible contestants for the Democratic Party's nomination, with Obama trailing by 12 points in second place. John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, is grouped with former Vice President Al Gore and the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. John Kerry, in a close bid for third place.

At this early juncture, it is impossible to rule out anyone rising through the primary process and winning at the Democratic convention -- a feat accomplished in the last 20 years by Kerry in 2004, Bill Clinton in 1992, and Michael Dukakis in 1988. Still, it would seem that all other possible Democratic candidates tested in the poll face a much stiffer battle for a place at the top, because they are supported by no more than 4% of Democrats.

Please tell me which of [these] candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

BASED ON 544 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

The dynamics are slightly different with respect to the Republican nomination, where Giuliani and McCain are virtually tied for the lead among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Giuliani leads by a slim but statistically insignificant margin, 28% to 26%. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice holds clear title for a distant third place with 13%, which is nearly double the support expressed for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (7%) in fourth place. All other possible contestants are supported by no more than 5% of Republicans.

Please tell me which of [these] candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

BASED ON 379 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

As a result of the nearly equal support for Giuliani and McCain, 2008 is shaping up to be the first presidential election in nearly three decades when the GOP nomination is not headlined by a sitting president or early front-runner. Bush faced no significant challenge in 2004, and in 2000 he won the Republican nomination after holding sway over the field, with more than half of voters backing him nearly from the time he announced his candidacy. In 1996, the Republican Party nomination was a bit more competitive; still, then-Kansas Sen. Bob Dole held a dominant lead over a handful of rivals throughout the campaign. There was a similar dynamic in 1988, when the sitting vice president, George H.W. Bush, held a consistent double-digit lead over his chief rival, Dole. One has to go back to 1980 to find an election in which two leading contenders, Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford, fought to lead the GOP ticket for president.

Women Boosting Female Candidacies

None of the four current front-runners across both parties appears to be resonating with a particular political wing of their party, at least at this point. Giuliani and McCain are about tied among conservative Republicans as well as among moderate/liberal Republicans. Similarly, there is relatively little difference in support for Clinton versus Obama between self-described conservative Democrats and moderate/liberal Democrats.

To the extent demographic differences are evident today, particularly with the small sample sizes in a single poll, these are seen with respect to gender. Women in both parties show higher support than men for their top female contenders.

Among Democratic women, Clinton is the clear favorite, chosen by 38% to 18% for Obama, while among men, Clinton and Obama are about tied.

Republican men and women are similar in their degrees of support for Giuliani and McCain -- the slight differences seen are not significant. However, support for Rice is significantly higher among women than men, 18% vs. 8%.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 9-12, 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 379 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 544 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

46. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party:) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

[ROTATED: Virginia Senator, George Allen; Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Tennessee Senator, Bill Frist; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; New York Governor, George Pataki; Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice; Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney]

BASED ON 379 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

47. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party:) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

[ROTATED: Indiana Senator, Evan Bayh; Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Retired General, Wesley Clark; New York Senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton; Former South Dakota Senator, Tom Daschle; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Wisconsin Senator, Russ Feingold; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson; Iowa Governor, Tom Vilsack]

BASED ON 544 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS