"Don't Know" Leads for President in 2008

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Many Americans cannot spontaneously think of the name of a person they would like to see elected president in 2008. While this lack of firm conviction about presidential candidates over a year before the first 2008 primaries is not necessarily unusual, it underscores the certainty of change as various politicians announce their candidacies and jockey for position in the months ahead.  

Beyond the "don't know" category, eight men and women are mentioned spontaneously as desired candidates by 2% or more of Americans as their choice for president in 2008. Two candidates top the list -- New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with 15% of spontaneous mentions and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 11%. The other six mentioned by between 2% and 6% of the people are Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. John Edwards, Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and former Vice President Al Gore. Five other individuals are named by 1% -- Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist (who has formally said he won't run), and former Sec. of State Colin Powell.

Asked in a separate question if they would like to see a list of candidates run for president, McCain and Giuliani are the only two candidates who get a "yes" answer from more than half of Americans. Clinton tops the list among Democrats, over three-quarters of whom would like to see her run, but the majority of independents and Republicans say they would not like to see her run.

Top-of-Mind Measure

The traditional way of measuring a candidate's standing a year or more before an election is to read a list of names and ask Americans which person they would support if they had to vote for one. Another measurement technique involves asking Americans to react to each of a list of names, indicating if they have ever heard of the person, and if so, whether their opinion of that person is favorable or unfavorable.

The Nov. 27-29, 2006 Gallup Poll Panel study approached the issue of the 2008 presidential race in a somewhat different way. The poll asked the representative sample of Americans to respond to this question: "Thinking ahead to the election for president in 2008, who would you most like to see elected president?"

This technique allows us to get a sense of the "share-of-mind" space held by candidates at this juncture -- over a year before the first primaries and caucuses in January 2008. The fact that many Americans cannot name anyone in response to the question shows that a significant number of voters are simply not focused at this point on the coming election, have not begun to sort out the various candidates, or have not yet settled on a favorite.

The overall rank-ordered list of names is as follows:

But the rank-order of names within political groups does give a good feel for the lay of the land at this point.

Among Democrats, there are no major surprises. Clinton leads the way, at 31% mentions among Democrats as the person they would like to see elected president, more than twice as many "votes" as received by any other candidate. Obama is in second place at 14% among Democrats, followed by the generic "a Democrat" at 6%, Edwards at 4%, and McCain at 3%.

Among Republicans, there is no dominant leader as is the case among Democrats. McCain gets 15% of the vote, followed by Giuliani with 10%. Other Republicans with measurable support include Rice at 4%, Gingrich and a "Republican" at 4%, and Romney with 3%.

Among the crucial group of Americans who describe themselves as independents, McCain leads, followed by Clinton.

McCain does well in the overall results because of his strong appeal -- at least based on this top-of-mind measure -- among independents in addition to his Republican base. McCain is first among independents with 16% mentions (and is fifth among Democrats, with 3% mentions).

Hillary Clinton comes in second to McCain among independents, with 11% of their top-of-mind vote. Like McCain, she gets only a minimal number of mentions from those who identify with the opposite party. Giuliani gets only 3% among independents and 1% among Democrats. Obama gets 5% among independents but not enough mentions among Republicans to round up to 1%.

Thinking ahead to the election for president in 2008, who would you most like to see elected president? (OPEN ENDED)

Like to See Run?

A slightly different way of measuring the strength of individuals who might potentially run for president at this point was also included in the Nov. 27-29 poll:

Now, I am going to read a list of people who may run for president in 2008. For each, please say whether you, personally, would or would not like to see this person run for president in the next election. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]

The most significant difference here is that only 44% of Americans say they would like to see Clinton run for president, putting her in fourth place on the list, in contrast to her first place showing in the open-ended format.

The primary reason for her not being number one on this list is the tepid response of independents and Republicans. Clinton is tops on the list among Democrats, 77% of whom would like to see her run. But only 11% of Republicans and 44% of independents would like to see her run.

The man at the top of the list -- McCain -- has a much broader base of support. His candidacy is favored by 62% of Republicans, but also by a very healthy 58% of independents and 48% of Democrats. 

Giuliani does better than McCain among Republicans (74%), but less well among independents and Democrats.

Edwards does less well among Democrats than Clinton, but does as well among independents and better among Republicans -- giving him an overall total that puts him one point higher than Clinton among all Americans.

All in all, this measure shows that Clinton and Edwards are at the top of the list of Democrats' preferences for whom they would like to see run in 2008, while Giuliani, McCain, and Rice are at the top of the list among Republicans. Importantly, independents would most like to see two Republicans run -- McCain and Giuliani. 

Clinton has low cross-appeal to voters who are not Democrats, while McCain and Giuliani are much better positioned at this point among voters who are independents and Democrats.

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 27-29, 2006. Respondents were randomly drawn from Gallup's nationally representative household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.