Americans Troubled by Little Beyond Iraq

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- If it weren't for the Iraq issue, one might think the state of the country today is fairly comfortable -- only Iraq stands out as a significant concern for Americans in Gallup's latest monthly reading of the "most important problem" facing the country. This continues the pattern seen for the last five months since concerns about immigration and fuel prices in the first half of 2006 largely waned.

According to Gallup's Jan. 15-18, 2007 survey, conducted prior to President George W. Bush's State of the Union address Tuesday night, 36% of Americans cite Iraq as the nation's top problem. No other single issue is mentioned by more than 8% of Americans this month, although all economic issues combined (including the economy in general, unemployment, taxes, and others) are mentioned by a total of 17% of the public. Additionally, immigration, terrorism, and education are each mentioned by 6%. Unemployment, poverty, and ethical matters each registers 5%.

Gallup's historical trends on the most important problem show that it is unusual for public concerns to be spread so thinly across a wide number of issues as they are now, with only one issue garnering a substantial number of mentions.

This month's results are highly similar to those from November and December of 2006. The only exception is the specific category "the economy," which has declined as a concern. After being consistently mentioned by 8% to 11% of Americans from November 2005 through November 2006, it fell to 5% in December 2006 and to 4% in the latest poll.

All of this belies the fact that the great majority of Americans (63%) are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country today; only 35% are satisfied. While no single issue is a top concern to the majority of Americans, many Americans (particularly Democrats and independents) may simply be riled by whatever issue they do view as paramount. Also, while only 36% of Americans mention the war in Iraq as a top problem, 6 out of 10 (61%) oppose it.

A Run at the Top

January 2007 represents the 34th consecutive month Iraq has held the top spot on Gallup's most important problem measure, starting with April 2004. Iraq was also the top mentioned problem at the start of the war in 2003. In between, the economy ranked No. 1.

The 36% mentioning Iraq today matches November 2006 for the highest percentage the Iraq war has registered on this question since 2003. However, it is still much lower than the percentages of Americans citing the Vietnam War at the height of public concern about that conflict. Readings of greater than 40% were routine in the early years of the Vietnam War and it peaked in January 1967 at 55%.

Some Historical Context

Gallup has been asking the most important problem question since 1939. The trends show much higher percentages of Americans citing many of the domestic issues that barely occur to Americans as top problems today.

For instance, the 8% mentioning healthcare today is nearly a quarter of the percentage citing this at its highest: 31% mentioned healthcare in January 1994. The 6% mentioning terrorism today is only a fraction of the 46% citing it in the first month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The price of gas, currently at 1% as a concern, has nearly been erased as a top concern since it peaked at 22% last May.

As the accompanying table shows, many other issues that currently register minimal public concern -- including crime, drugs, unemployment, inflation, racism, and the environment -- have each had their day as a dominant problem in the minds of Americans.

Presidential Speech Could Have Changed Attitudes

Had Bush used his 2007 State of the Union speech as an opportunity to rally public concern around a specific issue or two -- such as he attempted with Social Security in 2005 and as former President Bill Clinton did with crime and healthcare in 1994 -- one could expect to see mentions of those issues rise in public perceptions of the nation's most important problem.

• In 1994, Gallup recorded a 12-percentage point increase in mentions of crime as the most important problem within a week of Clinton's State of the Union speech and an 11-point increase in healthcare. At the same time, there were minimal changes in other issues.
  
• Gallup's surveys several weeks before and after Bush's 2005 State of the Union address found a more than doubling of mentions of Social Security/Medicare as the nation's top problem from 5% to 13%.

In his latest speech, Bush touched on new solutions to the nation's problems in the areas of education, Social Security, healthcare, immigration, energy, and criminal justice. However, he spent even more time discussing the Iraq war than on all of these issues combined. Clearly, his goal was to raise public confidence in his handling of that issue. As a result, it is unlikely that the speech prompted any significant shifts in Americans' perceptions about the nation's broader roster of problems. Next month's Gallup update of most important problem will help to confirm that.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,018 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 15-18, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

7. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]