GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The key to Saturday's South Carolina primary will be turnout within three key constituency groups: Republicans, Independents, and Democrats.
South Carolina does not have party registration, and the South Carolina Republican primary does not restrict participation based on any measure of party affiliation or past voting behavior. Any registered voter in the state can vote on Saturday.
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday night of this week, estimates that the voting population on Saturday will be approximately 60% Republican, 30% Independent, and 10% Democrat. These estimates are based on a self-reported "plan to vote" measure asked of the random sample of all registered South Carolina voters in the poll.
That these percentages of the total population of those who turn out to vote on Saturday will be important is evident when the voting preferences of each group are examined:
| South Carolina Primary Vote by Party | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Independent | Democrat | |
| % | % | % | |
| Bush | 66 | 32 | 22 |
| McCain | 28 | 57 | 64 |
| Keyes | 3 | 7 | 7 |
Texas Governor George W. Bush does extraordinary well among core Republican voters. If the South Carolina primary was restricted only to Republicans, he could be projected to win by a very substantial margin. But, as can be seen, Arizona Senator John McCain does extraordinarily well among Independents and Democrats. The higher the percentage turnout among these groups, the better McCain's chances of winning the primary.
Gallup's current estimate that George W. Bush leads McCain by a 52% to 40% margin is based, as noted, on the turnout estimates of 60% Republican, 30% Independent and 10% Democrat. Even a relatively slight variation in these estimates, given the sharp differences in voting preferences, could make a substantial difference in the election outcome on Saturday.
RESULTS ARE BASED ON TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS CONDUCTED FEBRUARY 16-17, 2000 WITH - 560 - LIKELY REPUBLICAN SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY VOTERS.
FOR RESULTS BASED ON SAMPLES OF THIS SIZE, ONE CAN SAY WITH 95% CONFIDENCE THAT THE MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR IS PLUS OR MINUS 5 PERCENTAGE POINTS.
Suppose the Republican primary election for president were being held today. If you had to choose among the following candidates, which candidate would you vote for -- [Random order: George W. Bush, John McCain, or Alan Keyes]?
(If unsure) As of today, to which of the Republican candidates do you lean most
| Bush | McCain | Keyes | Other/ Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | 52% | 40 | 4 | 4 |
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 49% | 42 | 5 | 4 |
(If Q2/2A '01, 06-08') Are you certain to support [INSERT NAME FROM Q. 2/2A] for the Republican nomination or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else for the nomination?
| Bush voters | McCain voters | |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | ||
| % | % | |
| Certain | 86 | 80 |
| May change mind | 13 | 18 |
| Unsure | 1 | 2 |
Next I'm going to read a list of characteristics a president might have. For each one, please tell me, regardless of which candidate you support, whether you think it applies more to [Rotate: George W. Bush or John McCain]? (Random order)
| Bush | McCain | BOTH(vol.) | NEITHER(vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Has a vision for the country's future | |||||
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | 49% | 38 | 9 | 2 | 2 |
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 44% | 38 | 14 | 1 | 3 |
| Is a reformer | |||||
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | 46% | 37 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 40% | 44 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| Is a person you admire | |||||
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | 38% | 45 | 13 | 3 | 1 |
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 32% | 46 | 16 | 4 | 2 |
| Has the better chance of beating the Democratic candidate in November | |||||
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | 58% | 32 | 5 | * | 5 |
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 59% | 29 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| Has the necessary experience to be a good president | |||||
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | 52% | 34 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 47% | 35 | 13 | 2 | 3 |
(Rotated)
From what you know about the campaign so far, would you say George W. Bush has been attacking John McCain unfairly, or not?
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 2000 Feb 16-17 | |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, Bush attacking McCain unfairly | 35% | 35% |
| No, has not | 55 | 59 |
| No opinion | 10 | 6 |
From what you know about the campaign so far, would you say John McCain has been attacking George W. Bush unfairly, or not?
| 2000 Feb 11-13 | 2000 Feb 16-17 | |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, McCain attacking Bush unfairly | 38% | 39% |
| No, has not | 53 | 55 |
| No opinion | 9 | 6 |
As you may know, the three major candidates for the Republican nomination participated in a debate this Tuesday evening in South Carolina that was moderated by Larry King. How much of that debate did you happen to watch - all of it, most of it, only some of it, hardly any of it, or none of it?
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | |
|---|---|
| All of it | 14% |
| Most of it | 14 |
| Only some of it | 20 |
| Hardly any of it | 9 |
| None of it | 43 |
(If Q. 12 '1-3') Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate Tuesday night - (ROTATE: George W. Bush, John McCain, (or) Alan Keyes]?
BASED ON -- 270 -- WHO WATCHED ALL/MOST/SOME OF DEBATE; +/- 7 PCT PTS
| 2000 Feb 16-17 | |
|---|---|
| George W. Bush | 34% |
| John McCain | 19 |
| Alan Keyes | 40 |
| All equally (vol.) | 3 |
| No opinion | 4 |