GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Much of the media attention in the days since the New Hampshire primary has been focused on the race for the Republican nomination for president, but in some ways the continuing dominance of Vice President Al Gore on the Democratic side forms an equally compelling story. Gore, despite a narrower-than-expected victory in New Hampshire, continues to lead former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley by over 40 points among Democrats nationwide.
Gore's Lead Roughly the Same Before and After New
Hampshire
Gore has led Bradley among Democrats throughout the last year in
trial-heat polls, although the precise margin has varied from month
to month. In the last national Gallup poll conducted before the New
Hampshire primary, Gore got 67% of the Democratic vote, compared to
Bradley's 21%. This marked Gore's highest percentage during the
last three months, and Bradley's lowest. (At one point, in early
December, Gore had dropped to 54% of the vote among registered
Democrats, while Bradley received 39%.)
After New Hampshire, not much changed. In the latest national Gallup poll conducted February 4-6, Gore leads Bradley by 65% to 24%, suggesting that the New Hampshire publicity did little to move significant numbers of Democrats across the nation into Bradley's camp. These national numbers are important because they are in part representative of the Democrats who will be voting in high-population states, including New York, California, Texas and Florida, in the critical March primaries.
The February 4-6 poll also shows that Gore's supporters are more strongly committed to their man than are Bradley's: 61% of those voting for Gore say they are certain to support him, while only 45% of Bradley's make the same claim.
No Advantage for Gore in General Election Trial
Heats
How do the two Democratic contenders do against the Republican
candidates in hypothetical general election trial heats? Gore does
better against Republican front-runner George W. Bush than does
Bradley, although there is little difference in the trial-heat
positioning of the two Democrats against McCain. The bad news for
the Democrats more generally: the Republican candidates beat them
both handily. Bush beats Gore by 9 points and he beats Bradley by
14 points. Against McCain, both Democrats are defeated by larger,
22- and 23-point, margins.
The Images of Gore and Bradley
Among the general American public, Bradley actually has a higher
favorable rating than does Gore. Sixty-three percent of Americans
say their opinion of Bradley is favorable, while 18% say it is
unfavorable. The same numbers for Gore are 57% favorable and 37%
unfavorable. Part of the difference here is that Republicans across
the country know Gore better and presumably associate him more
directly with the current Democratic Clinton administration,
driving up his negative ratings.
Gore, however, scores higher than does Bradley among Democrats on a series of image dimensions that were included in the February 4-6 poll:
| Percentage of Democrats Ascribing Each Characteristic to Gore and to Bradley | ||
|---|---|---|
| Gore | Bradley | |
| Independent in thoughts and actions | 58 | 67 |
| A reformer | 49 | 47 |
| Worthy of the office of president | 81 | 65 |
| Too cocky | 20 | 22 |
| Will keep the economy strong | 81 | 59 |
| Too much of a Washington insider | 49 | 23 |
| Best chance of winning in November | 69 | 30 |
| New ideas | 66 | 61 |
| Strong and decisive leader | 69 | 60 |
Gore has several significant perceptual advantages that help explain his significant lead over Bradley on the election ballot. Chief among these are the facts that Gore is more likely than Bradley to be seen as worthy of the office of president, as the person who can keep the economy strong, and as the candidate who has the best chance of defeating the Republican challenger in November.
On the other hand, an apparent problem for Bradley is that he manages to tie Gore on just two key dimensions that to some degree exemplify Bradley's campaign approach: being a reformer, and having new ideas. (By way of contrast, John McCain, the challenger on the Republican side, does better on these dimensions than does front-runner George W. Bush.) In fact, the only dimension on which Bradley scores somewhat better than Gore is "independent in thoughts and actions" -- although the fact that Bradley is 26 points less likely to be seen as "too much of a Washington insider" is presumably a plus in some Democrats' eyes (even though, of course, Bradley spent 18 years in Washington as a U.S. senator).
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews
conducted February 4-6, 2000 with 386 Democrats (including
independents who "lean" to the Democratic Party). For results based
on this Democratic sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence
that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random
effects is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In addition to
sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
public opinion polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who are running in the Democratic primary for president. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president this year. [ROTATED: Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley; Vice President, Al Gore]
BASED ON -- 386 -- REGISTERED/LEAN DEMOCRATS; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Al Gore | Bill Bradley | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | |
| Registered Democrats | ||||
| 2000 Feb 4-6 | 65 | 24 | 0 | 11 |
| 2000 Jan 25-26 | 67 | 21 | 1 | 11 |
| 2000 Jan 17-19 | 60 | 27 | -- | 13 |
| 2000 Jan 13-16 | 59 | 30 | * | 11 |
| 2000 Jan 7-10 | 59 | 30 | * | 11 |
| 1999 Dec 20-21 | 52 | 38 | 1 | 9 |
| 1999 Dec 9-12 | 54 | 39 | * | 7 |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | 56 | 34 | * | 10 |
* = less than 0.5%
(vol.) = volunteered response