GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- According to interviews with New Hampshire voters conducted this past weekend, the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll in that state finds John McCain and Al Gore holding comfortable leads over their competitors heading into Tuesday's primary vote. Senator McCain is now favored by 42% of likely Republican voters, compared to 32% for George W. Bush and 14% for Steve Forbes. Among likely Democratic voters, Vice President Gore leads his only rival, Bill Bradley, by a six-point margin, 51% to 45%.
In addition to trailing McCain, Governor Bush now receives the lowest favorability ratings from Republican voters since the tracking poll began. At one point last week, Bush's favorable ratings reached as high as 73%, but today just 65% have a favorable view of him while 31% have an unfavorable view. By comparison, McCain is viewed favorably by 80% of likely Republican voters, with only 17% viewing him unfavorably. And his ratings have been stable at that level for the past ten days.
On the Democratic side, both Gore and Bradley enjoy highly positive images among Democratic voters. Roughly three-quarters have a favorable view of Gore, and 81%, of Bradley.
John McCain and Al Gore have led their respective field of candidates throughout Gallup's New Hampshire primary tracking that began February 20. Both men saw their leads shrink last week in the days following the Iowa caucuses and a highly publicized set of candidate debates in New Hampshire. Steve Forbes seemed to temporarily draw some conservative support away from McCain after Forbes' strong second-place showing in Iowa. (The percentage voting for Forbes increased over the course of last week from 12% to 17%, while McCain was cut down from 43% to 36%.) Similarly, Bradley appeared to get a substantial bounce late last week out of his debate with Al Gore on Wednesday night. But both trends reversed themselves over the weekend, and McCain and Gore now seem to have momentum going in their favor with only one day remaining before the primary.
Over the past week, support for Alan Keyes in the Republican primary climbed to just under 10% of the vote, with a small but clear increase in support for him evident after the Republican candidates' debate in New Hampshire Wednesday night. Today he receives 8%, putting him in fourth place behind Forbes, but ahead of Gary Bauer who receives less than 1% of the vote.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with New
Hampshire voters conducted January 29 through January 30.
Republican figures include interviews with 911 Republicans and
independents who are likely to vote in the February 1 New Hampshire
Republican primary, and have a margin of sampling error of plus or
minus three percentage points. Democratic figures include
interviews with 716 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters,
and have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording
and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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Suppose the Republican primary election for president were being held today. If you had to choose among the following candidates, which candidate would you vote for? [RANDOM ORDER: Gary Bauer, George W. Bush, Steve Forbes, John McCain, Alan Keyes]
(If Unsure) As of today, to which Republican candidate do you lean most?
| Bauer | Bush | Forbes | McCain | Keyes | Hatch | Other/ Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| 2000 Jan 29-30 |
* | 32 | 14 | 42 | 8 | -- | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 |
* | 34 | 15 | 39 | 9 | -- | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 |
1 | 35 | 17 | 36 | 8 | -- | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 |
* | 37 | 15 | 36 | 9 | -- | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 |
* | 35 | 14 | 40 | 7 | -- | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 |
* | 36 | 12 | 43 | 6 | * | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 |
* | 33 | 12 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 |
1 | 34 | 13 | 43 | 7 | * | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 |
1 | 33 | 13 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
Do you support [INSERT: Gary Bauer, George W. Bush, Steve Forbes, John McCain, Alan Keyes] strongly or only moderately?
| Strongly support | Moderately support | |
|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | ||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 71% | 29 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 66% | 34 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 64% | 36 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 60% | 40 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 61% | 39 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 60% | 40 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 60% | 40 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 58% | 42 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 55% | 45 |
| John McCain | ||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 68% | 32 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 66% | 34 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 64% | 36 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 71% | 29 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 66% | 34 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 60% | 40 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 54% | 46 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 51% | 49 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 53% | 47 |
| Other candidates | ||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 70% | 30 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 64% | 36 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 66% | 34 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 68% | 32 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 67% | 33 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 66% | 34 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 63% | 37 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 61% | 38 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 62% | 38 |
Next, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following Republican candidates. First, … . How about … [ROTATED]?
| Favorable | Unfavorable | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Bauer | |||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 29% | 46 | 25 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 29% | 48 | 23 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 28% | 48 | 24 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 27% | 45 | 28 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 24% | 46 | 30 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 23% | 49 | 28 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 23% | 48 | 29 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 25% | 44 | 31 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 27% | 39 | 34 |
| George W. Bush | |||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 65% | 31 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 69% | 28 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 72% | 26 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 73% | 25 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 71% | 26 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 71% | 27 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 70% | 27 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 70% | 27 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 69% | 27 | 4 |
| Steve Forbes | |||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 58% | 37 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 61% | 34 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 63% | 32 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 62% | 33 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 58% | 36 | 6 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 52% | 42 | 6 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 50% | 43 | 7 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 52% | 41 | 7 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 52% | 40 | 8 |
| Alan Keyes | |||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 52% | 35 | 13 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 56% | 31 | 13 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 55% | 30 | 15 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 54% | 30 | 16 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 50% | 34 | 16 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 46% | 39 | 15 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 46% | 38 | 16 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 46% | 35 | 19 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 48% | 30 | 22 |
| John McCain | |||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 80% | 17 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 80% | 18 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 78% | 19 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 77% | 20 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 79% | 18 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 80% | 17 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 82% | 14 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 82% | 14 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 82% | 14 | 4 |
Suppose the Democratic primary election for president were being held today. If you had to choose between [ROTATE: Bill Bradley or Al Gore], which candidate would you vote for?
(If Unsure) As of today, to which Democratic candidate do you lean more?
| Bradley | Gore | Other/ undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 45% | 51 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 47% | 48 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 43% | 51 | 6 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 40% | 56 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 39% | 57 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 44% | 53 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 45% | 51 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 45% | 50 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 43% | 52 | 5 |
Do you support [INSERT: Bill Bradley or Al Gore] strongly, or only moderately?
| Strongly support | Moderately support | |
|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | ||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 60% | 40 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 58% | 42 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 59% | 41 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 58% | 42 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 56% | 44 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 54% | 46 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 52% | 48 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 52% | 48 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 53% | 47 |
| Bill Bradley | ||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 63% | 37 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 60% | 40 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 59% | 41 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 51% | 49 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 51% | 49 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 49% | 51 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 52% | 48 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 49% | 51 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 52% | 48 |
Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following Democratic candidates. First, ... . How about... (ROTATED)?
| Favorable | Unfavorable | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | |||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 76% | 22 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 74% | 24 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 78% | 20 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 78% | 19 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 83% | 15 | 2 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 82% | 15 | 3 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 81% | 15 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 78% | 18 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 77% | 20 | 3 |
| Bill Bradley | |||
| 2000 Jan 29-30 | 81% | 15 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 27-29 | 81% | 15 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 26-28 | 82% | 14 | 4 |
| 2000 Jan 25-27 | 80% | 15 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 24-26 | 80% | 15 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 23-25 | 80% | 15 | 5 |
| 2000 Jan 22-24 | 80% | 14 | 6 |
| 2000 Jan 21-23 | 80% | 14 | 6 |
| 2000 Jan 20-22 | 81% | 11 | 8 |