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Gore and Bradley in Close Race in New Hampshire

Gore and Bradley in Close Race in New Hampshire

Both candidates viewed favorably by New Hampshire Democrats

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A special CNN/Gallup survey of New Hampshire Democratic voters finds Al Gore and Bill Bradley in a tight race for the support of voters in the first presidential primary election in 2000. Bradley is favored by 48% of the voters surveyed, compared to 46% for Gore, with 6% undecided.

The poll was conducted Thursday, October 28, one day after a televised forum in Hanover, New Hampshire patterned after a town hall meeting, during which the two candidates answered questions from the public. The winner of New Hampshire's February 1 primary will earn only a handful of delegates to the Democratic National Convention, but more importantly, is likely to leave the state with valuable political momentum in the quest for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The close race in New Hampshire is markedly different from the current pattern of support nationally, where Gore leads by a substantial margin. According to the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup national poll, conducted October 21-24, Gore leads Bradley among Democrats by 25 points, 57% to 32%.

While the race in New Hampshire is close among all Democratic voters, Bradley performs significantly better among men, receiving 57% of the male vote, compared with 37% for Gore. Conversely, women -- by a 54% to 40% margin -- favor Gore. Bradley also wins among voters with college degrees, while those with less formal education prefer Gore. This pattern could have an important impact on the outcome of the primary, perhaps giving Bradley an additional advantage if voters who are more educated disproportionately turn out to vote on the day of the primary, as is typically the case.

Debate Was a Draw
Who won the October 27 debate? Among the subset of New Hampshire voters in the new survey who watched all or some of the town meeting forum last Wednesday night, Bradley and Gore are tied: 39% choose Bradley compared to 38% for Gore, while 14% think they performed equally well. Most of the Democratic voters who say they watched none of the debate refrain from giving their impression of who won on the basis of news reports, but among those who did respond, perceptions are divided, with Gore chosen by 18% and Bradley by 13%.

The one issue at the town hall meeting generating the most discussion was health care, with Gore and Bradley swapping criticisms about the costs of each other's plans. When asked who would do a better job of improving the nation's health care system, New Hampshire Democratic voters split evenly, with Gore chosen by 41% and Bradley by 40%.

One perception where Gore maintains a solid lead over Bradley is his electability. Half the Democratic voters surveyed, 51%, believe Gore would have the better chance of winning the national election against George W. Bush as the possible Republican nominee. Only 35% believe Bradley stands a better chance of beating Bush.

Perceptions of Candidates Vary Widely
While the New Hampshire primary vote for Bradley and Gore reflected in the poll is evenly divided, both men enjoy very positive personal images among New Hampshire Democrats, with 75% saying they have a favorable impression of each candidate. Only 21% currently have an unfavorable image of Gore, and even fewer, 11%, feel negatively about Bradley.

Beyond these generally favorable impressions, however, voters make many distinctions between the qualities and characteristics each candidate possesses. When 12 different positive qualities were tested, Gore was chosen over Bradley on just two. By a 51% to 34% margin, he is more likely to be perceived as "presidential" and, by a slightly greater margin, as someone who understands the nation's problems. Bradley wins on five dimensions: He "has new ideas," is "not a typical politician," is "inspiring," "likeable," and "sincere." Gore and Bradley are closely matched on all other qualities rated.

Interestingly, on all the personal qualities tested, Bradley tends to rate better with Democrats who watched Wednesday's town meeting than with those who did not watch. This difference in Bradley's ratings is particularly wide in terms of "caring about the needs of people like you" and "understanding the nation's problems," on which Bradley is rated eight points higher by people who watched the forum. However, it is not clear whether this is due to Bradley's performance at the event, or is simply a result of more Bradley supporters tuning in.

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 432 New Hampshire voters, aged 18 and older, who plan to vote in the 2000 New Hampshire Democratic primary. Interviews were conducted October 28, 1999. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one evening, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Suppose the Democratic primary election for president were being held today. If you had to choose between [ROTATE: Bill Bradley (or) Al Gore], which candidate would you vote for?

(If unsure:) As of today, to which Democratic candidate do you lean more?

Bill Bradley 48%
Al Gore 46
Other/Undecided 6
  100%

Do you support [Al Gore/Bill Bradley] strongly, or not so strongly?

  Gore voters Bradley voters
Strongly 43% 49%
Not so strongly/ No opinion 57 51
  100% 100%

Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following candidates, or if you have never heard of him. First, ... . How about ... ?[ROTATED]

  Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
Al Gore 75% 21 * 4
Bill Bradley 75% 11 2 12

As you may know, Al Gore and Bill Bradley both appeared at a town meeting in Hanover, New Hampshire last night, which was broadcast on CNN and WMUR, where they answered questions from members of the audience. How much of that town meeting did you happen to watch -- all or most of it, about half of it, only some of it or none of it?

All or most of it 18%
About half of it 5
Only some of it 16
None of it 61
No opinion 0
  100%

(If saw town meeting) Just your best impression -- who do you think did a better job in that town meeting -- Al Gore (or) Bill Bradley? [ROTATED]

(If didn't see) Just your best impression from what you may have heard or read -- who do you think did a better job in that town meeting --Al Gore (or) Bill Bradley? [ROTATED]

  Total Watched
(n=168)
Did not watch
(n=264)
Al Gore 26% 38% 18%
Bill Bradley 23 39 13
BOTH EQUALLY (vol.) 11 14 9
No opinion 40 9 60
  100% 100% 100%

If George W. Bush wins the Republican nomination, who do you think would have a better chance to beat him in the presidential election in November 2000 -- [ROTATE: Al Gore (or) Bill Bradley]?

Al Gore 51%
Bill Bradley 35
BOTH EQUALLY (vol.) 3
NEITHER (vol.) 3
No opinion 8
  100%

Regardless of which candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following personal characteristics and qualities applies more to Al Gore or Bill Bradley. How about ... ? [RANDOM ORDER]

  Applies more to Gore Applies more to Bradley BOTH EQUALLY (vol.) No opinion
  % % % %
Fights for what he believes in 37 36 19 8
Understands the nation's problems 49 27 17 7
Strong and decisive leader 43 38 8 11
Has new ideas 24 56 8 12
Not a typical politician 15 66 8 11
Inspiring 35 44 8 13
Has a vision for the future 38 37 19 6
Likeable 33 42 21 4
Sincere 30 41 21 8
Cares about the needs of people like you 35 38 19 8
Thoughtful 34 38 21 7
Presidential 51 34 9 6

If elected president, who do you think would do the better of job of improving the health care system in this country -- Al Gore (or) Bill Bradley? [ROTATED]

Al Gore 41%
Bill Bradley 40
BOTH EQUALLY (vol.) 6
NEITHER (vol.) 3
No opinion 10
  100%

If you had to choose, which of the following schedule of Democratic Party debates would you like to see happen -- [ROTATE 1) A debate between Bill Bradley and Al Gore on a different issue every week between now and the primary election in February (or) 2) Four debates between Bill Bradley and Al Gore between now and the primary election in February]?

Every week 39%
Four times 56
No opinion 5
  100%

(vol.) volunteered response
* less than 0.5%


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/3499/gore-bradley-close-race-new-hampshire.aspx
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