GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The United States is 14 months, numerous primaries, and at least three conventions away from the general election that will determine who will be its next president. At this early point in the process, however, Texas Governor George W. Bush seems to have cornered the market on the winning poll numbers.
A new Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll, conducted September 10-14, finds little change in the Year 2000 electoral picture compared to previous surveys. Governor Bush maintains an imposing presence in the race for the Republican Party nomination -- earning 62% of the vote and leading second-place rival Elizabeth Dole, who has just 10%. The poll also shows that Bush would win the November election handily if it were held today, against either of the two major Democratic contenders. Bush maintains a large lead in the general election (56% vs. 39%) over the leading Democrat, Vice President Al Gore. Put former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley on the ticket, rather than Gore, and Bush performs slightly better, winning by 57% to 37%.
Among Democrats, Bill Bradley's campaign for his party's nomination shows no signs of momentum nationally, despite some recent evidence that he is doing better in selected states, such as New Hampshire and Iowa. Today, Democrats nationwide favor Al Gore over Bradley by 63% to 30% -- a slightly greater lead for Gore than last month, when his margin was 58% to 31%.
Bush Weathered Drug Controversy Without Injury
The latest survey is the first conducted by Gallup since troubles
emerged in August for the Bush campaign surrounding issues relating
to possible past drug use by the candidate. There is no sign,
however, that public support for the Texas governor or his personal
image has diminished as a result. Current support for Bush among
Republicans nationwide is similar to that found in Gallup surveys
taken in June and August, when 59% and 61% of Republicans,
respectively, favored him for the nomination. His current 17-point
lead over Al Gore also represents no significant change, compared
with his 14-point lead in August and a 17-point lead in June.
Beyond electoral support, George W. Bush continues to be viewed in positive personal terms by a majority of Americans. Today 56% say the phrase "shares your values" applies to Bush. A similar proportion, 58%, felt this way in March when Gallup last asked the question. (By contrast, slightly fewer, 52%, feel that Al Gore shares their values.)
Republican "Also-rans" Are Currently Stalled
George W. Bush's electoral appeal has left a crowded GOP field
scrambling over the relatively few remaining Republican votes. Thus
far, none of the eight other major Republican candidates has been
able to consolidate sufficient numbers to claim a dominant
second-place position. Elizabeth Dole showed promise shortly after
she announced her candidacy this spring, when she garnered the
support of 24% of Republicans nationwide and cut Bush's lead in
half (from 37 points to just 18 points). Dole's support quickly
dwindled, however, and today, at 10%, her poll figures are barely
distinguishable from those of Dan Quayle, Steve Forbes and John
McCain, each favored by just 5% of Republicans.
Further down in the Republican pack are Pat Buchanan, Gary Bauer, Orrin Hatch and Alan Keyes. Their support levels fall in the 1-3% range and have shown no sign of movement, either up or down, since late June.
Dole Could Be a Contender
While Dole, a former Red Cross president and well-credentialed
former cabinet member, has not been able to sustain a high level of
public support for the GOP nomination, there are indications in the
new Gallup survey that she is well-positioned to emerge as a
credible alternative to Bush for the nomination -- or to be an
attractive vice-presidential choice.
In addition to measuring candidate strength in election match-ups, Gallup explored the relative strength of various candidates by asking respondents how likely they would be to vote for each if the candidate's name were to appear on the ballot in November 2000. Out of the 10 candidates rated, Elizabeth Dole ranks second behind George W. Bush, but ahead of both Al Gore and Bill Bradley, as someone Americans would be "very" or "somewhat" likely to support next November. Over half the public, 54%, say they would likely vote for Dole if she were on the ballot, compared to 68% who feel this way about Bush. By contrast, 51% say they would be likely to vote for Gore and 45% for Bradley. However, all other announced and potential candidates rated, including Forbes, Quayle, McCain, Buchanan, Jesse Ventura, and Warren Beatty, receive far less support using this measure, ranging from 11% for Beatty to 33% for Forbes.
One distinguishing feature of the potential support for Elizabeth Dole is that it crosses party lines. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans, 63%, say they would likely vote for her next November if she were on the ballot, as would 55% of independents and 47% of Democrats. By contrast, support for Gore is highly partisan, with 82% of Democrats saying they would support him, compared to 45% of independents and just 23% of Republicans. Bush's support also tends to vary substantially by party, although support for him is high among all three groups: 91% among Republicans, 68% among independents and 48% among Democrats.
Elizabeth Dole also provides the Republican Party crossover appeal to a group her party has been anxious to attract in recent elections: women. With 59% of women saying they would be likely to support her if she were on the ballot, compared to 50% of men, she is the only Republican presidential candidate rated -- including Bush -- who has greater support among women than among men.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,698 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted September 10-14, 1999. For results based on this sample,
one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000. [RANDOM ORDER: Family Research Council Chairman, Gary Bauer; Political commentator, Patrick Buchanan; Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Former Red Cross Director, Elizabeth Dole; Businessman, Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former Vice-president, Dan Quayle; Utah Senator, Orrin Hatch; Political commentator, Alan Keyes]
BASED ON -- 721 -- REPUBLICANS/LEAN REPUBLICAN; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Bsh | Dol | Qay | Frb | McC | Buc | Bau | Htc | Key | No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999
Sep 10-14 |
62% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 |
61 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 |
59 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -- | 6 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 |
46 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 May 23-24 |
46 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 30- May 2 |
42 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -- | -- | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 |
53 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | -- | -- | 2 |
-- Candidate's name not included in list for that survey (either
because person had not yet announced candidacy, or because
candidate had dropped out of the race)
Bsh: Bush
Dol: Dole
Qay: Quayle
Frb: Forbes
McC: McCain
Buc: Buchanan
Bau: Bauer
Htc: Hatch
Key: Keyes
No: None/ Other/ No opinion
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000? [ROTATE: Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley; Vice President, Al Gore]?
BASED ON -- 778 -- DEMOCRATS/LEAN DEMOCRATIC; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Gore | Bradley | OTHER (vol.) | None/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 63% | 30% | *% | 7% |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 58 | 31 | 1 | 10 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 | 64 | 28 | 1 | 7 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 63 | 28 | 0 | 9 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 59 | 30 | 0 | 11 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 66 | 23 | 1 | 10 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 54 | 34 | 1 | 11 |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
(If unsure) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Gore, the Democrat (or), Bush, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 39% | 56% | *% | 5% |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 41 | 55 | * | 4 |
| 1999 Jul 16-18 | 38 | 55 | * | 7 |
| 1999 Jun 25-27 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| 1999 Jun 4-5 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| 1999 May 23-24 | 40 | 54 | * | 6 |
| 1999 Apr 30-May 2 | 40 | 56 | * | 4 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 38 | 59 | * | 3 |
| 1999 Mar 12-14 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 41 | 56 | * | 3 |
| 1999 Feb 19-21 | 43 | 54 | * | 3 |
| 1999 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 48 | * | 5 |
| 1998 May 8-10 | 46 | 50 | * | 4 |
If former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
(If unsure) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Bill Bradley, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Bill Bradley | George W. Bush | OTHER (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Sep 10-14 | 37% | 57% | *% | 6% |
| 1999 Aug 16-18 | 40 | 55 | * | 5 |
| 1999 Apr 13-14 | 34 | 61 | * | 5 |
Next, if each of the following candidates were on the ballot for president next November, please say how likely it is you would vote for him or her -- very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not at all likely, or if you don't know enough about that person to say.
First, ... . How about ... [RANDOM ORDER: Vice President, Al Gore; Former New Jersey Senator, Bill Bradley; Texas Governor, George W. Bush; Former Red Cross Director, Elizabeth Dole; Businessman, Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Political commentator, Patrick Buchanan; Former Vice President, Dan Quayle; Movie actor, Warren Beatty; Minnesota Governor, Jesse Ventura]?
| Total likely to support | Total not likely | Don't know enough to say | |
|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | 68% | 27% | 5% |
| Elizabeth Dole | 54 | 34 | 12 |
| Al Gore | 51 | 44 | 5 |
| Bill Bradley | 45 | 31 | 24 |
| Steve Forbes | 33 | 43 | 24 |
| Dan Quayle | 32 | 61 | 7 |
| John McCain | 27 | 32 | 41 |
| Patrick Buchanan | 24 | 56 | 20 |
| Jesse Ventura | 23 | 56 | 21 |
| Warren Beatty | 11 | 71 | 18 |
(vol.) volunteered response