GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Although both Republican and Democratic political leaders have hailed the recent federal budget agreement between the President and Republican leaders in Congress as an historic event, most Americans seem unimpressed. The plan calls for eliminating the deficit by the year 2002, making it the first balanced budget in over three decades. But a new Gallup poll shows that an overwhelming number of Americans are skeptical: 81% think the agreement will not result in a balanced budget, while just 17% think it will. In addition, more Americans say it will hurt senior citizens rather than help them, and a substantial majority of Americans feel the plan will unfairly benefit some groups at the expense of others.
The poll also shows, however, that few Americans have paid much attention to the budget agreement, and that their views about it -- whether positive or negative -- are not strongly held. About half of Americans have followed the issue at least somewhat closely, but only 10% very closely. Furthermore, while Americans support the new plan by a two-to-one margin, 50% to 26%, only one in six expresses strong views -- split about evenly between support and opposition.
At this time, the political impact of the agreement appears to be slight or nonexistent. Neither Clinton's ratings, nor the ratings of Congress and its political leaders, seem to have been affected by the announcement. The poll shows that 57% approve of Clinton's overall performance, and 59% approve of the way he has handled the economy. Both of these ratings are high for the President, but little changed over the past several months. The approval rating for Congress is at 32%, virtually unchanged since April (although nine points lower than its near record high rating in January).
Another indication that the budget agreement has not greatly helped either party: while Americans express slightly greater trust in Clinton and the Democrats to deal with the federal budget than Republicans, they also give slightly more credit for reaching the budget agreement to the Republicans than to Clinton.
Mixed Feelings About Specific Recommendations
When asked to evaluate specific provisions of the agreement,
Americans express strong support for the middle-income tax cut and
the education tax credit, with 80% or more approving these
measures. They also give majority support to cuts in the capital
gains and inheritance taxes, but are evenly divided over the small
increases in Medicare premiums and are slightly opposed to making
small reductions in the amount by which Social Security benefits
are increased each year.
Given the low level of awareness of the agreement and the low intensity of feelings about it, these views could change dramatically in the next few months, as the details of the budget are spelled out in actual legislation.
METHODOLOGY
The current results are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,019 adults, conducted May
6-7, 1997. For results based on the whole sample, one can say with
95 percent confidence that the error attributable to sampling and
other random effects could be plus or minus 3 percentage points. In
addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.
(Asked of Sample A, 504 respondents, ±5%) Who do you trust more when it comes to dealing with the federal budget -- Bill Clinton or the Republicans in Congress? (if unsure, asked:) If you had to choose, who would you say you trust more -- Clinton or the Republicans?
| Bill Clinton | 47% |
| Republicans in Congress | 41 |
| Both equally (vol.) | * |
| Neither(vol.) | 9 |
| No opinion | 3 |
| ___ | |
| 100% | |
| * Less than 0.5% | |
Asked of Sample B, 515 respondents, ±5%) Who do you trust more when it comes to dealing with the federal budget -- The Democrats in Congress or the Republicans in Congress? (If not sure, asked:) If you had to choose, who would you say you trust more -- the Democrats or the Republicans?
| Democrats | 44% |
| Republicans | 35 |
| Both equally (vol.) | 4 |
| Neither(vol.) | 12 |
| No opinion | 5 |
| ___ | |
| 100% |
As you may know, President Clinton and leaders in Congress have agreed on a new budget plan to make changes in taxes and spending which they say would balance the federal budget by the year 2002. How closely have you followed the news about this plan -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely or not at all?
| Very | 10% |
| Somewhat | 39 |
| Not too | 33 |
| Not at all | 18 |
| No opinion | * |
| ___ | |
| 100% | |
| * Less than 0.5% | |
In general, do you favor or oppose the proposed federal budget plan? (If answered favor/oppose, asked:) How strongly do you [favor/oppose] the plan -- strongly or only moderately?
| Strongly favor | 9% |
| Moderately favor | 41 |
| Moderately oppose | 18 |
| Strongly oppose | 8 |
| Not sure | 15 |
| Haven't heard about plan (vol.) | 9 |
| ___ | |
| 100% |
Next, how likely is it that the federal budget will be balanced in the year 2002 as Clinton and Congressional leaders say it will under this plan -- do you think the budget will definitely be balanced, probably be balanced, probably not be balanced or definitely not be balanced by the year 2002?
| Definitely | 1% |
| Probably | 16 |
| Probably not | 51 |
| Definitely not | 30 |
| No opinion | 2 |
| ___ | |
| 100% |
Which of the following statements best describes the way you feel about the proposed budget plan -- it is fair to all Americans, or, it unfairly benefits some groups at the expense of others? (ROTATED by split samples A and B)
| Fair | 21% |
| Unfair | 60 |
| Not sure | 9 |
| Haven't heard (vol.) | 15 |
| ___ | |
| 100% |
Overall, do you think the proposed budget plan would be good or bad for you personally?
| Good for you | 48% |
| Bad for you | 31 |
| Not sure | 18 |
| Haven't heard (vol.) | 3 |
| ___ | |
| 100% |
Overall, do you think the proposed budget plan would be good or bad for senior citizens?
| Good | 31% |
| Bad | 48 |
| Not sure | 18 |
| Haven't heard (vol.) | 3 |
| ___ | |
| 100% |
Next, please indicate whether you would generally favor or oppose each of the following proposals which might be included in the plan to balance the budget by the year 2002: (RANDOM ORDER)
| Favor | Oppose | ||
| Reducing taxes for middle-income families with young children | 82% | 16% | 2% |
| Establishing a tax credit to help families pay for two years of education for their children beyond high school | 80 | 17 | 3 |
| Reducing the taxes people must pay when they inherit money or property | 60 | 37 | 3 |
| Reducing the taxes people pay when they sell stocks, bonds, or real estate | 55 | 41 | 4 |
| Making small increases in Medicare premiums | 47 | 48 | 5 |
| Making small reductions in amount by which Social Security benefits are increased each year | 45 | 51 | 4 |
Who do you think is most responsible for reaching the budget agreement -- Bill Clinton or the Republicans in Congress?
| Clinton | 40% |
| Republicans | 44 |
| Both equally (vol.) | 6 |
| Neither/other(vol.) | 2 |
| No opinion | 8 |
| ___ | |
| 100% |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?
| Clinton Job Approval - Recent Trend | |||
| Approve | Disapprove | ||
| 1997 May 6-7 | 57% | 35 | 8 |
| 1997 Apr 18-20 | 54% | 37 | 9 |
| 1997 Mar 24-26 | 59% | 35 | 6 |
| 1997 Feb 24-26 | 57% | 33 | 10 |
| 1997 Jan 30-Feb 2 | 60% | 31 | 9 |
| 1997 Jan 10-13 | 62% | 31 | 7 |
| 1997 Jan 3-5 | 58% | 35 | 7 |
| 1996 Dec 9-11 | 58% | 34 | 8 |
| 1996 Nov 21-24 | 58% | 35 | 7 |
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Congress
| Congress Job Approval - Recent Trend | |||
| Approve | Disapprove | ||
| May 6-7 | 32% | 58 | 10 |
| Apr 18-20 | 30% | 59 | 11 |
| Feb 24-26 | 37% | 48 | 15 |
| Jan 31-Feb 2 | 36% | 51 | 13 |
| Jan 10-13 | 41% | 49 | 10 |
Now thinking about some issues, do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling [item].? Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way he is handling [item]... (RANDOM ORDER)
| Handling of Key Issues - 1997 Trend | |||
| Approve | Disapprove | ||
| Federal budget deficit | |||
| May 6-7 | 44% | 46 | 10 |
| Mar 24-26 | 43% | 45 | 12 |
| Feb 24-26 | 33% | 51 | 16 |
| Taxes | |||
| May 6-7 | 41% | 48% | 11% |
| Feb 24-26 | 39 | 48 | 13 |
| Economy | |||
| May 6-7 | 59% | 33% | 8% |
| Mar 24-26 | 57 | 35 | 8 |
| Feb 24-26 | 56 | 36 | 8 |
| Foreign affairs | |||
| May 6-7 | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Mar 24-26 | 51% | 35 | 14 |
| Feb 24-26 | 46 | ||
| May 6-7 | 39% | 44% | 11% |
| Feb 24-26 | 35 | 47 | 18 |