Gallup's August Economic Audit

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates on Tuesday -- for the 7^th time this year. The results of the Gallup Poll's August audit on consumer attitudes towards the economy and business suggest that such an attempt to continue to stimulate the economy is warranted.

American consumers' ratings of both the national economy and their own financial situation show no signs of improvement. As measured in this weekend's Gallup poll, the ratings of the national economy remain negative. Any hint of the optimism found in previous months' ratings of future economic conditions has been erased. Only a little more than a third of Americans now rate the economy as either excellent or good, and six out of 10 say it is getting worse instead of better. Two-thirds of Americans say the economic news they hear is negative. About one out of four Americans spontaneously mention the economy, unemployment or a recession when asked to name the number one problem facing the nation. None of these measures, it should be noted, are as negative as they were in the early 1990s, but most continue to represent low points for the recent past.

More Americans say their own financial situations are worse today than they were in 2000. Gallup first asked this question in 1976 and never has the response been so negative.

Here are the details:

1. Rate the Current Economy

Public Rating of Economy October 2000 - August 2001

The August16-19 Gallup poll shows that 36% of Americans rate the economy positively (either "excellent" or "good"). This represents a decline from July, when 41% rated the economy positively. Positive ratings have leveled off in the low- to mid-40s since the spring, after steeper declines from late 2000 and early 2001. As recently as January, 67% of Americans rated the economy positively, and in February a majority still thought economic conditions were either excellent or good. Still, the 36% positive number is much higher than was measured early in the 1990s, when at one point just 10% have gave the economy a positive rating.

At the same time, Americans remain reluctant to rate the current economy as "poor." Only 14% give such a rating. A near majority of Americans, 49%, rate the economy as "only fair" in the poll. In 1992, 40% of Americans routinely rated the economy as poor.

2. Looking Ahead, Is the Economy Getting Better or Worse?

Future Expectations of Economy October 2000 - August 2001

The public's responses to the optimism/pessimism question had shown a glint of optimism -- the percentage thinking things would get better had steadily increased from 24% in April to 35% in July. However, that positive view of the future economy seems to have subsided. Just 27% of the public now believes things are getting better. A majority of Americans continue to believe that things are getting worse, as has been the case since January of this year. Last fall, however, the optimists outnumbered the pessimists by a significant margin.

Looking further back, the "getting worse" number peaked at 71% back in January 1992. The "getting better" number was at its highest point of 69% in January of 2000.

3. The #1 Problem Facing the Country Today

Each month, Gallup asks the public to name the most important problem currently facing the country. The question is asked in an open-ended fashion, allowing us to measure Americans' spontaneous, top-of-mind concerns without prompting or suggestions. Over the past few months, there has been an increase in the percentage of Americans who mention the economy, although this percentage remains significantly lower than in previous years. Currently, 15% of Americans name the economy in general terms as the nation's number one problem, 9% cite unemployment, 1% say inflation, 1% mention recession, and 3% mention some other economic problem, for a combined total of 29% mentioning economic problems. This number is slightly higher than it was last month, when 24% mentioned one of these as the most important problem, but is roughly on par with what we found in April.

Back in March 1991, by way of comparison, 42% named the economy as the number one problem, 25% said unemployment and jobs, and 3% mentioned the recession, for a total of 70%, almost three times what we find today.

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?[Open-ended]

	Aug 16-19, 2001	Jul 19-22, 2001	Jun 11-17, 2001	May 10-14, 2001	Apr 6-8, 2001	Mar 5-7, 2001	Jan 10-14, 2001
Economy in general	15	14	10	10	15	10	7
Unemployment/jobs	9	6	4	6	6	4	4
Other specific economic	3	*	--	2	--	1	*
Recession	1	--	--	*	--	3	4
Inflation	1	4	3	1	7	2	1
TOTAL	29	24	17	19	28	20	16
Education	9	10	12	9	10	16	12
Ethics/moral/religious/family decline; dishonesty; lack of integrity	9	9	9	8	9	11	13

4. Personal Financial Situation Compared to One Year Ago

Personal Financial Situation Compared to One Year Ago October 2000 - August 2001

In the latest poll, 41% say their own personal financial situation is worse now compared to one year ago, while 37% say it is better. This 41% figure is the highest Gallup has ever recorded on this measure, stretching back to 1976. The number is also nearly double what it was last October, when just 21% said their personal financial situation was worse compared to a year ago. The fact that the economy has changed so dramatically from last year, a time of highly visible and sustained economic growth to a time of very minimal growth, may help explain why negative assessments on this "compared to a year ago" measure are at an all-time high. Other years, such as 1991, 1982 and the late 1970s, were actually marked by worse economic conditions than currently exist, but these times were not preceded by the kind of economic growth witnessed from the mid-to-late 1990s to 2000.

The 37% figure representing those who say their financial situation is better is not among the lowest recorded, but it is the lowest since March of 1994 (34%). The measure has been as low as 25% in August of 1982.

5. Looking Ahead, What Will Your Personal Financial Situation Be in One Year?

Personal Financial Situation This Time Next Year October 2000 - August 2001

Despite the generally pessimistic comparisons of this year's financial situation and negative views about the future of the national economy, Americans remain optimistic that their own financial situation will improve in the next 12 months. Currently, 66% believe that their personal financial situation will be better this time next year. The number has remained in the 60% range throughout this year. In fact, it is apparent that Americans are essentially eternal optimists -- it is rare for Americans to believe things will not get better for them in the future. This measure has only fallen below 50% a few times -- 1993, 1990-1991, and 1977-1983.

6. Economic News You Have Recently Heard

It is not surprising Americans rate the economy poorly -- given that 66% say the economic news they have been hearing recently has been mostly bad. Only 22% say it has been mostly good. At the same time, these numbers are actually more positive than they were in April of this year, when 75% said they had heard mostly bad economic news lately and only 16% had heard mostly good news. However, in 2000, the story was quite different. At that time, 71% said they had heard mostly good economic news and just 19% had heard mostly bad.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,013 adults, 18 years and older, conducted August 16-19, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now turning to the economy,

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

	Ex- cel- lent	Good	Only fair	Poor	No opin-ion			Ex- cel- lent	Good	Only fair	Poor	No opin-ion
	%	%	%	%	%			%	%	%	%	%
2001							1997
2001 Aug 16-19	2	34	49	14	1		1997 Jan 31-Feb 2	4	38	43	15	*
							1996
2001 Jul 19-22	3	38	47	11	1		1996 Oct 26-29	5	42	39	13	1
2001 Jun 11-17	3	39	45	12	1		1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 †	3	34	46	16	1
2001 May 10-14	3	37	45	15	*		1996 Jul 18-21	5	38	43	14	*
2001 Apr 6-8	4	41	41	14	*		1996 May 9-12	3	27	50	19	1
2001 Mar 5-7	3	43	43	10	1		1996 Apr 9-10	1	26	52	20	1
2001 Feb 1-4	7	44	36	13	*		1996 Mar 15-17	2	31	48	18	1
2001 Jan 10-14	11	56	27	6	*		1996 Jan 5-7	1	28	47	23	1
2000							1995
2000 Dec 2-4	12	51	28	8	1		1995 Nov 6-8	2	28	47	22	1
2000 Nov 13-15	19	53	21	7	*		1995 May 11-14	2	27	50	20	1
2000 Oct 6-9	14	57	24	4	1		1994
2000 Aug 18-19	25	49	21	4	1		1994 Dec 16-18	2	25	52	21	*
2000 Jul 25-26	26	48	21	4	1		1994 Nov 2-6	2	28	49	20	1
2000 May 18-21	17	49	24	9	1		1994 Oct 22-25	1	25	52	21	1
2000 Apr 3-9	14	46	30	9	1		1994 Jul 15-17	1	26	52	21	*
2000 Jan 7-10	19	52	23	5	1		1994 Apr 22-24	1	23	49	26	1
1999							1994 Jan 15-17	*	22	54	24	*
1999 Oct 21-24	16	49	27	8	*		1993
1999 Sep 10-14	20	47	24	8	1		1993 Dec 4-6	1	20	57	21	1
1999 Aug 24-26	14	50	28	7	1		1993 Nov 2-4	1	16	50	33	*
1999 Jun 4-5	18	56	21	5	*		1993 Aug 8-10	*	10	49	40	1
1999 Jan 15-17	14	55	27	4	*		1993 Jun 29-30	1	14	52	32	1
1998							1993 Feb 12-14	*	14	46	39	1
1998 Dec 4-6	13	52	27	8	*		1992
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1	13	53	27	6	1		1992 Dec 18-20	2	16	34	47	1
1998 Sep 1	11	54	25	9	1		1992 Dec 4-6	1	14	41	43	1
1998 Mar 20-22	20	46	27	7	*		1992 Oct 23-25	*	11	45	43	1
1997							1992 Sep 11-15	1	10	37	51	1
1997 Dec 18-21	7	41	38	12	2		1992 Aug 31-Sep 2 †	1	9	37	53	*
1997 Nov 6-9	10	48	33	9	*		1992 Jun 12-14 †	1	11	47	41	*
1997 Aug 22-25^	8	41	38	13	*		1992 Apr 9-12 †	1	11	40	48	*
1997 May 6-7	7	39	38	15	1		1992 Jan 3-6	*	12	46	41	1
^ Asked of half sample
† Asked of Registered Voters

Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

	Get- ting better	Get- ting worse	SAME (vol.)	No opin- ion			Get- ting better	Get- ting worse	SAME (vol.)	No opin- ion
	%	%	%	%			%	%	%	%
2001						1998
(NA) 2001 Aug 16-19	27	59	11	3		(NA) 1998 Dec 4-6	52	38	8	2
						(NA) 1998 Oct 29-Nov 1	51	38	8	3
(NA) 2001 Jul 19-22	35	53	9	3		(NA) 1998 Sep 1	45	41	11	3
(NA) 2001 Jun 11-17	29	60	8	3		(NA) 1997 Dec 18-21	49	39	8	4
(NA) 2001 May 10-14	25	63	9	3		(NA) 1997 Nov 6-9	51	37	9	3
(NA) 2001 Apr 6-8	24	63	9	4		(NA) 1997 May 6-7	50	40	7	3
(NA) 2001 Mar 5-7	28	61	7	4		(NA) 1997 Jan 31-Feb 2	46	39	12	3
(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4	23	66	8	3		1996
(NA) 2001 Jan 10-14	32	56	8	4		(NA) 1996 Oct 26-29	50	38	7	5
2000						(RV) 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1	52	37	8	3
(NA) 2000 Dec 2-4	39	48	8	5		(NA) 1996 Jul 18-21	43	46	9	2
(NA) 2000 Nov 13-15	50	38	9	3		(NA) 1996 May 9-12	39	49	9	3
(NA) 2000 Oct 6-9	54	34	10	2		1992
(NA) 2000 Aug 18-19	60	26	10	4		(RV) 1992 Aug 31-Sep 2	29	59	10	2
(NA) 2000 Jul 25-26	58	29	9	4		(RV) 1992 Aug 10-12	24	65	10	1
(NA) 2000 May 18-21	52	37	9	2		(RV) 1992 Jun 12-14	28	61	9	2
(NA) 2000 Jan 7-10	69	23	6	2		(RV) 1992 Apr 9-12	40	45	13	2
1999						(RV) 1992 Mar 20-22	37	51	11	1
(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24	52	34	11	3		(RV) 1992 Jan 31-Feb 1	22	70	7	1
(NA) 1999 Sep 10-14	59	29	9	3		(NA) 1992 Jan 3-6	22	71	6	1
(NA) 1999 Aug 24-26	54	31	12	3		1991
(NA) 1999 Jun 4-5	60	27	9	4		(NA) 1991 Dec 5-8	19	69	9	3
(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17	63	28	6	3		(NA) 1991 Sep 5-8	27	60	10	3
						(NA) 1991 Jul 11-14	34	51	9	6

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GROUPS (Q. 5/6 COMBINED)

	Posi- tive	Mixed	Nega- tive	Un- desig-nated			Posi- tive	Mixed	Nega- tive	Un- desig- nated
	%	%	%	%			%	%	%	%
2001						1999
2001 Aug 16-19	20	27	50	3		1999 Aug 24-26	48	28	21	3
						1999 Jun 4-5	59	20	17	4
2001 Jul 19-22	25	29	42	4		1999 Jan 15-17	54	26	17	3
2001 Jun 11-17	22	28	45	5		1998
2001 May 10-14	20	28	49	3		1998 Dec 4-6	47	28	23	2
2001 Apr 6-8	21	30	44	5		1998 Oct 29-Nov 1	47	27	22	4
2001 Mar 5-7	22	33	41	4		1998 Sep 1	45	27	24	4
2001 Feb 1-4	22	33	42	3		1998 Mar 20-22	59	21	18	2
2001 Jan 10-14	30	40	26	4		1997
2000						1997 Dec 18-21	36	28	31	5
2000 Dec 2-4	36	35	25	4		1997 Nov 6-9	46	23	28	3
2000 Nov 13-15	47	32	18	3		1997 May 6-7	38	23	36	3
2000 Oct 6-9	51	28	18	3		1997 Jan 31-Feb 2	33	24	40	3
2000 Aug 18-19	60	21	15	4		1996
2000 Jul 25-26	57	23	16	4		1996 Oct 26-29	37	25	33	5
2000 May 18-21	48	28	21	3		1996 Aug 30-Sep 1	31	29	36	4
2000 Jan 7-10	61	21	15	3		1996 July 18-21	32	25	40	3
1999						1996 May 9-12	22	28	47	3
1999 Oct 21-24	50	24	23	3		1992
1999 Sep 10-14	55	22	19	4		1992 Aug 31-Sep 2	7	25	66	2
						1992 Jun 12-14	8	25	65	2

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]

		Aug 16-19, 2001	Jul 19-22, 2001	Jun 11-17, 2001	May 10-14, 2001	Apr 6-8, 2001	Mar 5-7, 2001	Jan 10-14, 2001
	ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET)	34	31	26	31	33	29	22
1	Economy in general	15	14	10	10	15	10	7
2	Unemployment/jobs	9	6	4	6	6	4	4
3	Other specific economic	3	*	--	2	--	1	*
4	Taxes	3	4	4	4	4	7	5
5	Federal budget deficit/federal debt	2	1	1	1	1	2	1
6	Wage issues	1	*	1	*	*	1	1
7	Recession	1	--	--	*	--	3	4
8	Fuel/oil Prices	1	2	4	9	1	1	2
9	High cost of living/inflation	1	4	3	1	7	2	1
10	Gap between rich and poor	*	1	1	1	2	1	1
11	Trade relations/deficit	--	1	1	*	1	*	*
	NON-ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET)	62	71	75	68	69	76	77
1	Education	9	10	12	9	10	16	12
2	Ethics/moral/religious/family decline; dishonesty; lack of integrity	9	9	9	8	9	11	13
3	Crime/violence	6	9	9	7	6	8	9
4	Foreign aid/focus overseas	5	1	2	3	1	1	*
5	Poor healthcare/ hospitals; high cost of healthcare	6	7	6	4	5	7	7
6	Dissatisfaction with government/ Congress/ politicians/ candidates; poor leadership; corruption	5	6	6	5	7	5	9
7	Drugs	4	6	5	5	6	6	7
8	Environment/ pollution	4	5	5	3	3	2	2
9	Poverty/ hunger/ homelessness	3	6	8	4	4	5	4
10	Medicare/Social Security issues	3	4	3	3	2	4	3
11	Lack of money	2	*	1	2	--	--	--
12	Immigration/illegal aliens	2	3	2	1	1	*	2
13	Judicial system/courts/laws	2	1	3	1	2	1	1
14	Children's behavior/ way they are raised	2	3	3	4	6	6	3
15	Welfare	1	1	1	1	1	1	2
16	Abortion	1	2	1	1	1	1	1
17	National security	1	*	1	*	*	1	--
18	Lack of respect for each other	1	1	2	1	1	1	--
19	Care for the elderly	1	1	1	*	1	1	2
20	Unifying the country	1	1	*	1	*	1	1
21	Fear of war	1	1	1	*	1	2	*
22	Overpopulation	1	1	1	*	1	1	1
23	The media	1	1	*	*	1	1	1
24	Guns/gun control	1	*	1	1	1	4	1
25	Race relations/ racism	1	2	3	2	2	2	4
26	Cancer/diseases	*	*	1	--	1	--	--
27	Situation/conflict with China	*	*	--	2	7	--	--
28	School shootings/school violence	*	*	1	*	3	5	0
29	Election/election reform	*	*	--	*	1	*	2
30	Lack of military defense	*	3	2	1	1	2	2
31	Child abuse	*	*	*	*	*	--	1
32	AIDS	*	--	*	--	--	--	*
33	International issues/ problems	*	2	3	*	3	4	4
34	Lack of energy sources; the energy crisis	--	3	7	12	2	2	4
35	Advancement of computers/technology	--	*	--	--	--	*	0
36	Other non-economic	6	4	5	6	4	1	3
	No opin- ion	7	6	5	6	7	7	8
	Total	122%	132%	139%	127%	138%	141%	135%
Total adds to more than 100% due to multiple responses

Next, we are interested in how people's financial situation may have changed. Would you say that you are financially better off now than you were a year ago, or are you financially worse off now?

 

	Bet- ter off	Worse off	SAME (vol.)	No opin- ion			Bet- ter off	Worse off	SAME (vol.)	No opin- ion
	%	%	%	%			%	%	%	%
2001 Aug 16-19	37	41	21	1		1991 May	32	33	32	3
						1991 Apr	29	37	33	1
2001 Jul 19-22	39	36	25	*		1991 Mar 21-24	31	32	37	1
2001 Jun 11-17	42	37	20	1		1991 Mar 28-31	37	34	28	1
2001 Apr 6-8	42	36	22	*		1991 Feb	37	35	28	*
2001 Feb 1-4	46	30	23	1		1991 Jan 11-13	27	39	33	1
2001 Jan 10-14	49	30	21	*		1991 Jan 3-6	35	32	32	1
2000 Oct 6-9	55	22	22	1		1990 Dec	38	26	36	*
2000 May 18-21	53	26	20	1		1990 Oct 25-28	38	26	35	1
1999 Oct 21-24	56	19	24	1		1990 Oct 18-21	27	30	41	2
1999 Aug 24-26	53	22	25	*		1990 Oct 11-14	32	26	41	*
1999 Jun 4-5	57	20	22	1		1990 Sep	40	32	27	1
1999 Jan 15-17	58	21	21	*		1990 Aug	43	29	27	1
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1	53	24	22	1		1990 Jul	44	27	28	1
1998 Mar 20-22	55	24	20	1		1990 Feb	49	26	24	1
1997 Jun 26-29	44	29	26	1		1990 Jun	42	31	25	2
1997 May 6-7	45	25	28	2		1988 May	47	28	24	1
1996 Mar 8-10	49	21	29	1		1987 Jun	43	24	32	1
1994 Dec 16-18	40	29	31	*		1986 Jun	46	24	30	*
1994 May 20-22	40	33	26	1		1985 Jun	43	26	29	2
1994 Mar 7-8	34	31	34	1		1984 Jul	40	34	25	1
1993 Dec 4-6	36	31	33	*		1983 Jun	28	32	39	1
1993 Jun	29	34	36	1		1982 Aug	25	26	46	3
1992 Feb	34	19	46	1		1981 Jun	33	30	35	2
1992 Jan	30	26	43	1		1980 Mar	30	24	45	1
1991 Dec	33	26	40	1		1979 Jun	30	27	41	2
1991 Oct	35	22	42	1		1978 Jun	35	31	32	2
1991 Sep	34	37	28	1		1977 Jun	39	28	31	2
1991 Jul	34	33	32	1		1976 Sep	33	36	30	1

Looking ahead, do you expect that at this time next year you will be financially better off than now, or worse off than now?

 

	Bet- ter off	Worse off	SAME (vol.)	No opin- ion			Bet- ter off	Worse off	SAME (vol.)	No opin- ion
	%	%	%	%			%	%	%	%
2001 Aug 16-19	66	18	13	3		1991 May	57	19	16	8
						1991 Apr	56	18	17	9
2001 Jul 19-22	64	18	13	5		1991 Mar 21-24	56	20	18	6
2001 Jun 11-17	62	22	11	5		1991 Feb 28-Mar 1	64	20	9	7
2001 Apr 6-8	62	18	15	5		1991 Feb	57	20	15	8
2001 Feb 1-4	61	19	16	4		1991 Jan 11-13	41	21	25	13
2001 Jan 10-14	63	21	13	3		1991 Jan 3-6	52	20	18	10
2000 Oct 6-9	68	11	15	6		1990 Dec	58	17	18	7
2000 May 18-21	67	13	14	6		1990 Oct 25-28	50	15	27	8
1999 Oct 21-24	68	13	12	7		1990 Oct 18-21	41	16	34	9
1999 Aug 24-26	67	16	13	4		1990 Oct 11-14	48	13	30	9
1999 Jun 4-5	67	12	17	4		1990 Sep	51	20	17	12
1999 Jan 15-17	68	14	14	4		1990 Aug	57	20	16	7
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1	66	12	16	6		1990 Jul	58	18	17	7
1998 Mar 20-22	71	14	9	6		1990 Feb	65	16	13	6
1997 Jun 26-29	59	17	20	4		1989 Jun	58	20	13	9
1997 May 6-7	60	17	20	3		1988 May	63	17	9	11
1996 Mar 8-10	66	16	11	7		1987 Jun	57	18	17	8
1994 Dec 16-18	63	17	17	3		1986 Jun	57	17	20	6
1994 May 20-22	59	21	16	4		1985 Jun	52	19	19	10
1994 Mar 7-8	53	22	19	6		1984 Jul	52	28	12	8
1993 Dec 4-6	56	18	22	4		1983 Jun	43	28	19	10
1993 Jun	49	32	14	5		1982 Aug	37	24	29	10
1992 Feb	54	14	28	4		1981 Jun	41	25	26	8
1992 Jan	51	15	28	6		1980 Mar	36	24	31	9
1991 Dec	54	17	21	8		1979 Jun	33	27	30	10
1991 Oct	55	16	23	6		1978 Jun	38	30	20	12
1991 Sep	53	22	19	6		1977 Jun	47	27	17	9
1991 Jul	57	19	15	9

Has the economic news you've heard or read about recently been mostly good or mostly bad?

 

	Mostly good	Mostly bad	MIXED (vol.)	No opin- ion
	%	%	%	%
2001 Aug 16-19	22	66	7	5
2001 Apr 6-8	16	75	6	3
2000 Apr 7-9	71	19	5	5
1997 Dec 18-21	51	37	7	5
1997 Jan 31-Feb 2	50	35	9	6
1996 Mar 15-17	37	50	9	4
1994 May 20-22	42	46	6	6
1993 Dec 4-6	39	48	9	4

* -- Less than 0.5%

(vol) -- Volunteered response