This is the last in a three-part series of articles investigating the key issues of the 2002 elections.
Over the last two weeks, the Tuesday Briefing has examined the potential effects of the issues of terrorism and the economy on the 2002 congressional elections. While it may now seem improbable that a third or fourth issue would emerge as the key issue in the elections, the potential still exists. Should education, prescription drugs for older Americans or Social Security become an issue, which party would benefit? What if the situation with Iraq escalates into a larger conflict? This article investigates the possible key "sleeper" issues that could affect the 2002 elections.
Each month, Gallup asks Americans to name, without prompting, "the most important problem facing the country today." Throughout the year, terrorism and the economy have vied for the top spot. Currently, 36% of Americans name some aspect of the economy as the most important problem facing the country, while 34% mention terrorism*. No other issue is mentioned by more than 10% of the public.
However, that does not mean that these are the only two issues that occupy voters' minds as they decide how to cast their ballots. A June CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll presented Americans with a list of seven issues and asked them which issue would be most important to them when they vote for Congress this November. About a quarter of Americans said the economy (26%) and terrorism (22%) would be most important to them, but half of the public named other issues as more important. Specifically, 19% mentioned education, 11% said Social Security and 10% said prescription drugs for older Americans. Seven percent mentioned a quasi-economic issue: making sure that large corporations act responsibly.
The Impact of Issues on the Vote
Previous analyses show Democrats enjoy an edge among voters on the economy while Republicans do so on terrorism. The domestic issues below would seem to benefit the Democrats this fall. However, an increased focus on Iraq may benefit the Republicans.
- Education: When asked which party would do a better job dealing with education, the public is divided, with 43% saying the Democrats and 43% saying the Republicans. Of those citing education as the most important issue to their vote, 49% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate while 41% say they will vote for the Republican.
- Social Security: Democrats enjoy a perceptual advantage over Republicans on Social Security, with 48% saying the Democrats would do a better job on the issue and 38% saying the Republicans. The advantage is amplified when looking at the vote intentions of those who cite Social Security as the most important issue to their vote, as the Democrats prevail 54% to 38%.
- Prescription Drugs for Older Americans: Democrats hold their biggest edge over Republicans on prescription drug benefits for seniors -- 50% to 33% -- when Americans are asked which party would better handle this issue. That lead is moderated somewhat when looking at the vote intentions of those who cite prescription drug benefits as the most important issue -- 52% of this group prefer the Democratic candidate for Congress while 45% prefer the Republican candidate.
- Corporate Corruption: The questionable actions of executives at large companies have been headline grabbers in 2002. While the public gives both parties relatively equal scores on their current handling of corporate corruption, it sees the Democrats as better able to make sure corporations act responsibly, by a 47% to 37% margin. This may result from the commonly held perception that Republicans are more closely aligned with big business. Though few cite corporate corruption as the most important consideration in their vote, voting intentions among this limited group are solidly Democratic.
- Iraq: While Democrats have a perceptual edge on most domestic issues, it appears Republicans would benefit if the potential war against Iraq becomes a more prominent issue this fall. When asked which party would make the right decision regarding Iraq, 41% of Americans say the Republicans while only 30% say the Democrats, according to an Aug. 19-21 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll***. Voters who say the possibility of war with Iraq is a more important issue to them than economic conditions are virtually tied in their voting preferences between Republicans and Democrats, while Democrats have an eight-point lead over Republicans in the race for Congress among the total population.
Key Points
If other domestic issues can compete with the economy and terrorism for voters' attention this fall, the Democrats stand to benefit. Democrats hold an edge on most of the domestic issues, either in terms of being viewed as better able to handle the issue, as being preferred by people who say the issue is most important to their vote, or both. This helps counter the Republican advantage on terrorism, though the Democratic edge on the economy already does that to a large degree. Escalation of the situation in Iraq could help the fortunes of Republican congressional candidates.
*These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 5-8, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3%. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
**These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 28-30, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3%. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
***These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 801 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 19-21, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4%. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
