This is the second in a series of articles investigating the key issues of the 2002 elections.
As the 2002 congressional races heat up, the nation's leading Republicans and Democrats are crisscrossing the country promoting their own party's stances on this year's leading campaign issues. President Bush made stops last week in Wisconsin, Iowa and South Dakota to campaign for Republican congressional and gubernatorial candidates in tight races. Prominent Democrats Rep. Richard Gephardt and Sen. Joe Lieberman were at the Iowa State Fair on the same day as Bush, campaigning for Democratic candidates.
What issue have politicians from both parties found themselves most often discussing with potential voters? The economy. As discussed last week (see "Issues in the 2002 Election: Terrorism" in Related Items), the overwhelming majority of Gallup poll respondents name either terrorism or the struggling economy as America's most important problem -- and of those two issues, the economy is named the most.
Recent Gallup polls show that Americans do not rate current economic conditions positively, and more feel they are getting worse than feel they are getting better. Ratings of Bush's handling of the economy have taken a hit in the past month, falling from 63% approval to 52% approval. According to an Aug. 5-8 Gallup poll*, 36% of Americans name some aspect of the economy as the most important problem facing the country today. This percentage has fluctuated over the course of the year, but the economy has overtaken terrorism in recent months, as media attention to issues such as corporate scandals, a slow-growing economy, and a falling stock market has increased exponentially.
In a July 26-28 poll**, after respondents indicated what they thought was the most important problem, Gallup immediately followed up by asking which party would be better able to handle that problem. This measure has proven to be a strong predictor of voting intention. Thirty-eight percent of Americans think the Republicans would be best able to handle what they feel is the country's most important problem, compared to 36% who choose the Democrats. Among those who cite the economy as the most important problem, the public is similarly divided in its view of which party would better handle the issue, with 37% saying the Republicans and 37% saying the Democrats. Twenty-six percent of those who identify the economy as the top concern in the country believe that neither party has an advantage on the issue.
However, when asked to directly compare the parties on their ability to deal with the economy, Americans give Democrats a slight advantage of 42% compared to 37% for Republicans, according to the July 26-28 poll. This marks a shift in perceptions from earlier this year, as Republicans enjoyed a 44% to 40% edge over Democrats in a June 28-30 poll and an even larger 43% to 34% advantage in May.
The Impact of the Economy on the Vote
While the overall numbers may show only a slight advantage for the Democrats, a closer look at the data reveals that Democrats hold an important advantage on the economy. When Gallup asked registered voters who they plan to vote for in their own district's U.S. House of Representatives' election this year, voters gave a six-point advantage to the Democrats over the Republicans, by a margin of 48% to 42%. Yet among registered voters who say that the economy is the most important problem facing the country, the advantage more than doubles to 13 points, as 52% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while just 39% say they will vote for the Republican. It should be pointed out that much of this relationship results from the fact that the Democrats are more likely to cite the economy as the most important problem facing the country. Nevertheless, Republicans are vulnerable on the issue as Bush presides over a sluggish economy. This effect appears similar to what happened two decades ago during the first mid-term election of Ronald Reagan's presidency in 1982, when Democrats achieved significant gains in Congress.
Key Points
The swing in momentum toward the Democratic Party in congressional vote intentions appears to be related to an increased focus on the economy. Democrats are currently well positioned on the issue, and if the economy remains an important issue for the 2002 election, Democratic control of the 108th Congress appears to be a likely outcome.
*These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 5-8, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3%. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
**These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 26-28, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3%. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
