Twenty-three percent of Americans were following the Trent Lott story very closely as of last week, putting the level of attention below that given to the Washington, D.C., sniper shootings earlier this year, but about on par with attention given to the news stories about Iraqi declarations to the United Nations. The Lott story is apparently being followed a little more closely in the black community; our latest summary of two polls conducted Dec. 16-17 and Dec. 19-22 shows that 33% of blacks are following the Lott story closely.
The American public was clearly supportive of Lott's decision to back down from the Senate majority leader post he was scheduled to take over in January. Even rank-and-file Republicans were evenly split in their views on what Lott should do -- 40% said he should take over the Senate leadership post as planned, while 41% said he should step down. That was hardly a ringing endorsement from the members of Lott's own party, underscoring the pressures Lott was facing in dealing with the controversial situation.
Although a Dec. 23 New York Times front-page story ("Among Blacks, Mixed Feelings on Senator Lott's Fall") suggested that some blacks disapproved of the Republican pressure to oust Lott from his leadership position, our data show that 65% of blacks feel Lott is prejudiced against blacks (compared to 13% who think he isn't), and 63% feel that he "really believes that the country would have been better off if it had elected a president in 1948 who endorsed segregationist policies" (compared to 31% who say he "made a poor choice of words and did not mean to endorse segregationist policies").
There are no nationwide Gallup data at all on Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., elected by his fellow Republicans on Monday as the new Senate majority leader to replace Lott. But there is little doubt that we will begin to test Frist's image in the months ahead as he becomes more and more of a player on the national political scene.
Blacks' Views on the Republican Party
After Lott's resignation, the media quickly developed the story line that the Bush White House had masterminded the entire Lott situation with a balance of public statements and behind-the-scenes maneuvering. It was widely considered that there were two reasons for the White House's concern: the Republican Party's poor image among blacks nationwide, and the possibility that being seen as insensitive to blacks and civil rights might hurt the GOP among specific white constituencies.
There is little question that blacks hold a dim view of the Republican Party. Asked which party best reflects "your values," our weekend polling shows that blacks choose the Democrats over the Republicans by a 74% to 6% margin. Prior to the November midterm elections, our polling suggested that Republican congressional candidates were receiving just 8% of the black vote nationwide.
The GOP's overall image has not been appreciably hurt by the controversy so far, but it will probably be weeks (or perhaps months) before we know the real impact of the Lott affair on white voters' views of the Republican Party.
Bush Approval
President Bush's job approval rating is now at 61%, down slightly from the 63% ratings he received in the previous two polls. Bush's rating was at 62% in mid-October. Job approval ratings move up and down from poll to poll, but Bush's current rating (the last of 2002) marks the lowest he has received since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Al Gore
The other political event that reverberated through the nation's news channels last week was Al Gore's announcement that he would not seek his party's nomination for president in 2004. Prior to his announcement, Gore had been leading in all trial heat polls. Two new polls released this week showed that the Democratic race has developed fairly quickly into one with two front-runners -- Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (Gore's vice presidential nominee from 2000) and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.
The interesting speculation focuses on New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. Clinton says she will serve out her term as New York's junior senator (which ends in 2006), and won't be a presidential candidate in 2004, but last week's poll shows that she jumps to the No. 1 spot among Democrats when her name is included in the list of possible candidates.
The Economy
This month's UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism registers an increase in investor optimism for the second straight month, putting investors in roughly the same frame of mind that they were in just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Other Gallup Poll data show that the percentage of Americans who say the economy is getting worse has dropped slightly from 54% in early December to 50%. This is still not a good rating by any stretch of the imagination, but it is a little less negative than other readings we have measured earlier this fall.
It's worthwhile to note that Americans' ratings of their personal financial situations remain more positive than their perceptions of the national economy.
Workers, for example, are well aware of the less than optimal job situation across the country, but a surprisingly high percentage remain confident that their own jobs are secure. Eight out of 10 employees interviewed as part of the Gallup/UBS Employee Outlook Index are either extremely or very confident that they will keep their jobs over the next year. Only 8% are not confident. And slightly more than half say they are extremely or very confident that they will get a pay increase from their company within the next year. Only 27% are not.
There's little doubt that this personal optimism is helping to keep Americans spending, and thus propping up the vital consumer element of the national economy.
Iraq
Public opinion remains stable on the Iraq issue, despite new developments last week that focused on the alleged inadequacies of the dossier Iraq provided to the United Nations two weeks ago. Our latest weekend polling shows a slight drop in the percentage of Americans favoring invading Iraq with U.S. ground troops "to remove Saddam Hussein from power" -- now at 53%. Fifty-eight percent of Americans approve when asked a slightly different question -- whether they favor or oppose invading Iraq to remove Iraq's weapons of mass destruction or its programs to develop them. Perhaps the most important finding comes from a new CNN/Time poll released Friday: 60% of Americans say war with Iraq is inevitable.
Religion in America
This holiday week again focuses attention on the remarkably religious nature of the American population. More than 9 in 10 Americans claim some religious affiliation or connection; a small number, between 6% and 9%, routinely respond that they have no religious identification, or are atheists or agnostics. About 8 in 10 Americans are either Catholic or Protestant.
The majority of Americans say they attend religious services once a month or more. Two-thirds are members of a church or synagogue.
In our Dec. 9-10 survey, 61% of Americans said that religion is very important in their personal lives. Those for whom religion is particularly important include: women; blacks; those aged 65 and older; Americans living in the South and in rural areas; lower income Americans; those with lower levels of education; and political conservatives.