The big news of the week revolves -- once again -- around terrorism. Bombings in Saudi Arabia and Casablanca have reminded the world that terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda are still active and able to perpetuate their bombings, despite the worldwide war on terrorism that's been underway since Sept. 11, 2001.
The American people have generally been concerned about terrorism, even as other events have come and gone -- since the 9/11 attacks. In January, for example, terrorism was far and away at the top of the list when Americans were asked about the importance of various priorities for the president and Congress. In February, Americans ranked "preventing future acts of terrorism" as the No. 1 foreign policy priority for the nation, ahead of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons of mass destruction, securing adequate supplies of energy, and defending "our allies' security."
There has been no new polling about terrorism released since last week's attacks. Still, there is little question that terrorism had recently lost its sharp edge in the American consciousness as the war with Iraq was winding down. Fear of personally being a victim of a terrorist attack, as of the end of April, had fallen to 34% -- one of the lowest readings we have measured on this question since Sept. 11. In that same late April poll, there was a huge jump in the percentage of Americans saying that the United States and its allies were winning the war against terrorism: from 37% in early March to 65%. That's as high as this "winning the war on terrorism" number has been since late December 2001 and early January 2002.
Both in December 2001-January 2002, and in April 2003, the public was apparently reacting to victories in specific military actions (Afghanistan and Iraq), rather than to the more general and diffuse war on terrorism. Indeed, the "winning the war on terrorism" numbers quickly retreated in 2002, dropping to 33% by June. There is every reason to believe that the public's recent positive feelings about terrorism will once again fall back to the point at which the average respondent says that neither side is winning.
Political Impact of Terrorism
There is an interesting political situation developing around the terrorism issue. All polling has suggested that President Bush and the Republicans have a very strong advantage in the eyes of the public when it comes to dealing with terrorism. The most recent New York Times/CBS poll, completed on May 12, shows that 58% of Americans think the Republican Party is "more likely to make the right decisions when it comes to terrorism," while only 18% choose the Democratic Party.
That's why, for the most part (following Sun Tzu's famous dictums in The Art of War that it is best not to attack one's opponent at his point of greatest strength), Democrats have avoided attacking Bush directly on his handling of terrorism. Instead Democrats have been choosing to focus on areas in which they perceive Bush to be more vulnerable -- the economy and other domestic issues.
But there appears to be some change afoot. Democrats may be rethinking their strategy and coming to the conclusion that Bush could become vulnerable on terrorism in the months ahead. In Iowa this past weekend, some of the Democratic presidential candidates (front-runners Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and John Kerry of Massachusetts were not there) were more specific than usual in criticizing Bush on terrorism. As an example, Sen. Bob Graham of Florida (as quoted by the New York Times) said: "We have let al Qaeda off the hook. We had them on the ropes close to dismantlement, and then we moved resources out of Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight the war in Iraq."
These remarks are evidence of what could be a delicate strategy on the part of Democrats: pointing out that Bush did well in responding to terrorism initially, but he was distracted by the war in Iraq, and terrorism is still very much with us.
Iraq
There is also be some indication that Bush could become more vulnerable on the Iraqi war issue.
It's clear that several of the administration's initial justifications for the war with Iraq have not yet been borne out by events. No weapons of mass destruction (WMD) have been found, Saddam Hussein is missing and not definitely accounted for, and now -- based on the events of the last week -- it's apparent that deposing Saddam did not stop terrorism dead in its tracks in and of itself.
So far, none of these arguments have seemed to diminish Americans' support for the war. Polls indicate that a majority of Americans still support the war, even when they recognize that there have been no WMD found yet.
But this could change. One of the key issues we will be following is the degree to which Americans may sour on the war with Iraq and the administration's handling of terrorism. If there is change in these attitudes, then the Democrats will have an opening to use foreign affairs issues in their campaign, in addition to the basic attacks on the economy and domestic issues that have been the main substance of their strategy so far in this early stage of the campaign season.
Middle East
New terrorist bombings in the Middle East -- including Monday's bombing in a shopping mall in Israel that resulted in the deaths of at least three people -- is the other major story dominating the news. We don't yet have new public opinion data on reactions to these latest developments, but all of our past polling has suggested three basic summary points as far as the American public is concerned: 1) Americans are more sympathetic to the Israeli rather than the Palestinian side in the conflict, and there is little reason to suggest that this will change at any point in the near future; 2) Americans feel that U.S. involvement in attempting to find a peaceful solution to the crisis should be a high priority for American foreign policy; and 3) Americans are generally pessimistic that peace will ever come to the Middle East.
Bush 2004
President Bush filed the paperwork last week that makes him an official candidate for re-election next year. He looks strong at this point, as evidenced by a 69% overall job approval rating and clear victories when he is matched against either a generic Democratic candidate or specific Democratic candidates listed by name in trial heat polls.
But all of this doesn't mean much at this stage of the game. History tells us that any attempt to handicap either the Democratic nominee or the overall general election at this point is almost the same as flipping a coin. It's simply too early, and there is too much that can change between now and Election Day.
The Bush White House is well aware of this reality. Last month, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd attempted to dampen Republican expectations when he wrote a memo prophesizing that Bush job approval numbers will go down, and that at some point Bush will trail Democratic contenders in trial heat polls.
Everyone at the White House has the memory burned into their brains of the 1991-1992 re-election campaign of George W. Bush's father, in which the elder Bush's high approval numbers melted like winter snow in the hot heat of a poor economy. Much of what Bush and his advisers decide to do between now and Election Day will be undertaken in the context of what worked and, more importantly, what didn't work in the 1992 re-election campaign.
Shrinking Paychecks
TIME magazine's cover story this week is titled: "Hey, Where's My Raise?" The story deals with the fact that, as TIME puts it, "Shrinking paychecks are the new reality for many Americans."
What do the data show? There's actually been little change over the last year in the percentage of Americans who say they have enough money to live comfortably -- 73% say they do, compared to 75% last year. (That's a lot more, by the way, than think they will have enough to live comfortably when they retire.)
We see a slightly different picture when Americans are asked if they expect their incomes to go up, go down, or stay the same over the next six months. Our most recent reading, in early May, shows that 37% say their incomes will increase, 52% say they will stay the same, and 10% say they will decrease. These data lend some support to the idea that great numbers of Americans aren't expecting their incomes to go up any time soon, but also don't suggest than many Americans think that their paychecks are going to "shrink," as the TIME article suggests.
The current readings are clearly more negative than they have been at other points over the last year or two. In January 2002, for example, 48% expected that their incomes would go up over the next six months, and as recently as last December, 44% were expecting an increase.
Immigration
Immigration is back in the news as a result of the tragic deaths of 19 illegal immigrants trapped inside a trailer in Texas. The whole episode again raises the question of just how strict the country should be in denying access to those who want to enter from other countries.
To a large degree, Americans' views on immigration generally ebb and flow based on the economy. In our most recent poll, conducted in January, 55% wanted legal immigration into this country to be decreased, 35% wanted it to stay the same, and 7% wanted it increased. By contrast, a slightly different question asked back in 2001 (before Sept. 11) showed that a much lower 38% wanted immigration to be decreased, with 41% saying it should remain at the present level and 13% wanting it increased. Perceptions that immigration is a good thing for the country also dropped from 62% in 2001 to 52% last year.
Memorial Day
Next Monday's Memorial Day celebrations, technically honoring those Americans killed in service of their nation, will no doubt be expanded to include honors for those currently in uniform. The military in general is in a very positive perceptual position in the minds of Americans today. Last year, when we asked Americans to rate their confidence in 16 specific institutions, the military was at the top of the list. Americans also have a high regard for the honesty and ethics of military officers, who are tied for second with pharmacists, school teachers, and medical doctors, and behind nurses, who are No. 1 among all of the professions tested in our annual honesty and ethics poll.