GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With retired General Wesley Clark poised to announce whether he will compete to be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in 2004, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows the general would likely be a competitive candidate. Five candidates including Clark bunch together with low double-digit support, led by Congressman Dick Gephardt. If Clark does not run, support among the top four candidates is evenly distributed, as Senator Joe Lieberman has lost his front-runner position -- dropping 10 percentage points support in the past two weeks.
The poll, conducted Sept. 8-10, finds Gephardt in the lead with 16% support among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, followed by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (14%), Lieberman (13%), Senator John Kerry (12%), and Clark (10%). In a poll two weeks ago, Lieberman received support from 23% of Democratic voters and led by 10 percentage points over his next closest rival. Clark received just 2% of the vote, suggesting that recent publicity about his pending announcement has boosted his name recognition and support.
|
Support for Democratic Candidates for
President |
|||||
|
Congressman Dick Gephardt |
Former Vt. Gov. Howard Dean |
U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman |
U.S. Senator John Kerry |
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Sept. 8-10 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
|
Sept. 8-10 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
15 |
ra |
|
Aug. 25-26 |
13 |
12 |
23 |
10 |
2 |
|
Aug. 4-6 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
12 |
na |
|
July 25-27 |
16 |
11 |
21 |
15 |
na |
|
June 12-18 |
17 |
7 |
21 |
13 |
na |
|
May-June |
14 |
5 |
20 |
17 |
na |
|
April 22-23 |
16 |
6 |
22 |
18 |
na |
|
ra = Clark's vote was reallocated based on who respondents said would be their second choice after Clark. |
|||||
|
na = not asked |
|||||
The poll shows that Clark's candidacy would draw support from all of the four other major candidates, but that Kerry would probably be most affected. The Massachusetts Senator receives 12% of the vote with Clark in the running, but 15% with Clark not a candidate. Dean loses two percentage points to Clark, while Lieberman and Gephardt each lose one point. (The rest of Clark's support comes from the other candidates and otherwise unsure voters.)
Other findings from the poll:
- The support of two candidates reflects a major gender gap.
- Clark is in first place among men, receiving 16% support, but ties for sixth place among women with just 5% of their vote.
- Gephardt receives much greater support from women (21%) than from men (12%).
- The support of most candidates is not related to voters' political philosophy, but Dean is a major exception.
- Among liberals, Dean receives 29% support, compared with 11% among moderates and 6% among conservatives.
- Kerry also receives little support among conservative Democrats (7%), but does about equally well among moderates (15%) and liberals (13%).
- The other three top candidates receive about the same percentage of the vote from each group.
- Gephardt is the first choice among conservatives and moderates, and the second choice (behind Dean) among liberals.
- Support for some of the candidates is highly related to how closely people follow politics.
- Kerry and Clark fare especially well among people who follow national politics very closely, with both candidates' support falling dramatically among people who are not paying attention.
|
Candidate Support Compared By |
|||||
|
Gephardt |
Dean |
Lieberman |
Kerry |
Clark |
|
|
Follow politics: |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Very closely |
15 |
17 |
7 |
21 |
18 |
|
Somewhat closely |
18 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
7 |
|
Not closely |
16 |
10 |
18 |
3 |
6 |
- Lieberman, by contrast, receives much more support from the inattentive voters than among the more attentive ones -- suggesting that it is Lieberman's name recognition from being the vice presidential candidate in 2000, not his current campaigning, that accounts for his standing.
- Support for several of the candidates is also somewhat related to how frequently people vote.
- Dean comes in first among Democrats who say they "always" vote, receiving 20% of these voters' support -- compared with just 11% among less frequent voters.
- Gephardt, Kerry, and Clark all receive just one to two percentage points more support among the more frequent voters than among the less frequent voters.
|
Candidate Support Compared By |
|||||
|
Gephardt |
Dean |
Lieberman |
Kerry |
Clark |
|
|
How Often Vote: |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Always |
17 |
20 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
|
Almost always |
16 |
11 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
|
Part of time/ seldom/ never^ |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
^Too few cases to report |
|||||
- Lieberman is the only one of the five candidates to receive less support among the more frequent voters, again reflecting Lieberman's general name recognition from being the vice presidential candidate in 2000.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Sept. 8-10, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 407 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
48. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED: Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Florida Senator, Bob Graham, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun, Retired General, Wesley Clark]
49. If Wesley Clark DOES NOT run for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the nomination. [ROTATED: Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Florida Senator, Bob Graham, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun]
BASED ON -- 480 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
BASED ON -- 407 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE
|
2003 Sep 8-10 |
2003 Sep 8-10 |
|||
|
Q.48 |
Q.48-49 (Combined Responses) |
|||
|
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
15 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
|
Howard Dean |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
12 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
|
John Kerry |
11 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
|
Wesley Clark |
9 |
10 |
-- |
-- |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
|
Bob Graham |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
John Edwards |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
No One |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
|
No Opinion |
14 |
12 |
15 |
13 |
|
RV = Registered Voters |
||||
|
NA = National Adults |
||||
Trends for Comparison:
|
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
|||||||
|
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
23 |
23 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
10 |
11 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
John Kerry |
9 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
16 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
|
John Edwards |
5 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Bob Graham |
6 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
Wesley Clark |
2 |
2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Other |
2 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
No One |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
No Opinion |
12 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
9 |
9 |
|
RV = Registered Voters |
||||||||||||
|
NA = National Adults |
||||||||||||
|
* Less than 0.5% |
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