This early in the presidential nomination campaign, it is difficult to get a handle on which Democratic candidate will appeal most to voters as the Democrats select a nominee to challenge George W. Bush. Four months before the first major primary election in New Hampshire, relatively few Democrats are paying attention to the campaign, and the candidates are still struggling to become known among their party's supporters. The media have dubbed former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean the front-runner because of his lead in several polls conducted in New Hampshire and his advantage in fundraising thus far. But Gallup Polls have shown Dean only recently breaking into the double-digit support range among Democrats nationally, and until recently trailing better-known candidates such as Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt, and John Kerry.
It is possible that Dean, or any of the other candidates, could emerge as the clear front-runner nationally as the New Hampshire primary approaches, as has happened in past nomination fights. A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll attempted to gauge what type of candidate might have most appeal to Democrats in 2004, in terms of their stances on key issues and their ideological orientation. (The poll was conducted before Ret. Army Gen. Wesley Clark officially entered the race, and showed Lieberman in the lead, although a more recent poll shows a closer race between Gephardt, Lieberman, Kerry, and Dean.)
The poll asked Democrats (and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party) to choose between hypothetical candidates based on their standings on several issues -- Iraq, the Bush tax cuts, spending versus the deficit, and their overall ideology.
"If you had to choose, would you rather see the Democrats nominate someone for president in 2004 who [takes Position A or Position B]"
The issues tested are ones on which the Democratic candidates' stances clearly distinguish them from the others, or on which one or more candidates have expressed a clear policy position.
Generally speaking, the type of hypothetical candidate Democrats say they would support does not match the candidate they say they are supporting for the nomination. This is particularly true with respect to Democrats' preferences in the areas of tax cuts, federal budget policy, and candidate ideology. Democrats' real and hypothetical preferences are better aligned when it comes to U.S. policy toward Iraq. The fact that there is a substantial disconnect between the hypothetical and the real may be a symptom of Democrats' current low levels of attention to the campaign, or may be indicative that other factors beyond issues have more influence on candidate preference.
Tax Cuts
Gallup polling over the past several years shows that Democrats are much less likely than Republicans to favor the federal income tax cuts proposed by the Bush administration and passed by Congress. On the campaign trail, the Democratic candidates have criticized the Bush tax cuts, with some preferring to repeal the tax cuts that benefit wealthy Americans, and some preferring to see all of the tax cuts repealed. Among the candidates, Dean, Gephardt, and the Rev. Al Sharpton favor a total repeal as a means of funding healthcare and other programs, while the others, most notably Kerry, Lieberman, John Edwards, Carol Moseley Braun, Dennis Kucinich, and Bob Graham, favor only a partial repeal.
According to the poll, Democrats show a decided preference for a candidate who would repeal the tax cuts on the rich but keep them for the middle class, over a candidate who would repeal tax cuts for all Americans. Sixty-two percent prefer a candidate who supports the partial repeal, while 33% prefer a candidate who backs a total repeal.
When comparing respondents' preferred tax policy with their choice for the Democratic nomination, Gallup finds there is not much of a connection. Lieberman's support was just as high among those who favored a total repeal of the tax cuts as among those who favored a partial repeal, and Gephardt and Dean did about as well among those favoring a partial repeal as among those who want a total repeal.
Support for Democratic Candidates by Preference for Tax Cut Policy
|
Prefer Candidate Who Would |
Prefer Candidate Who Would |
||
|
Lieberman |
22% |
Lieberman |
23% |
|
Gephardt |
11% |
Gephardt |
15% |
|
Kerry |
11% |
Kerry |
7% |
|
Dean |
11% |
Dean |
12% |
|
Edwards |
7% |
Edwards |
4% |
|
Graham |
5% |
Graham |
6% |
Federal Budget Deficit
When George W. Bush entered office in January 2001, the federal budget was running a rare surplus, taking in more tax revenues than it expended. However, a sluggish economy, the war on terrorism, and the new tax cuts changed things in a hurry, and now the government is poised to run record deficits. The budget deficit will certainly be a weakness for Bush as he seeks re-election, but thus far, the Democratic candidates have not made deficit reduction a high priority, either.
A candidate who places a priority on federal spending over reducing the deficit appeals to most Democrats -- 66% prefer a candidate who takes that position, while 27% would prefer the opposite. On this issue, Lieberman seems somewhat more committed to fiscal restraint. The data suggest that Democrats who prefer a greater focus on the deficit show slightly higher levels of support for Lieberman than those who do not. Kerry gets higher support among those who would make deficit reduction a higher priority, while Gephardt does slightly better among those who give a higher priority to domestic spending.
Support for Democratic Candidates by Preference for Reducing Deficit Versus Federal Spending on Domestic Programs
|
Prefer Candidate Who Would Give |
Prefer Candidate Who Would Give |
||
|
Lieberman |
26% |
Lieberman |
22% |
|
Gephardt |
10% |
Gephardt |
14% |
|
Dean |
10% |
Dean |
12% |
|
Kerry |
15% |
Kerry |
7% |
|
Graham |
7% |
Graham |
6% |
The War in Iraq
Some experts attribute Dean's rise in the polls to his opposition to the Iraq war, a position few other Democratic candidates have taken (although the candidates are nearly universal in criticizing the postwar efforts at establishing order and rebuilding Iraq). Gallup Polls taken earlier this year showed a majority of Democrats in favor of the war with Iraq, but the late August poll shows a majority of Democrats (54%) now saying they prefer a candidate who opposed the war with Iraq, while 41% prefer a candidate who supported the war.
The majority in favor of an anti-war candidate and Dean's status as a war opponent stood to gain him considerable support among Democrats. The poll confirms that Dean does much better among war opponents than among war supporters, getting twice as much support among Iraq "doves," even though at the time of the poll Lieberman had the highest support among war opponents. Lieberman, a strong supporter of the war effort, did better among war supporters than among war opponents.
Support for Democratic Candidates by Views on Iraq War
|
Prefer Candidate Who |
Prefer Candidate Who |
||
|
Lieberman |
27% |
Lieberman |
20% |
|
Gephardt |
15% |
Gephardt |
12% |
|
Dean |
6% |
Dean |
14% |
|
Kerry |
9% |
Kerry |
8% |
|
Graham |
6% |
Graham |
6% |
|
Sharpton |
1% |
Sharpton |
6% |
Candidate Ideology
Dean's anti-war position and support for a universal health insurance plan has positioned him to the "left" or liberal end of the ideological spectrum among the Democratic contenders, while Lieberman's conservative moral views and strong support for national defense have positioned him on the "right." Edwards has campaigned as a moderate Southerner, a strategy that successfully worked for Bill Clinton in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Among Democrats, 66% say they prefer a presidential candidate in 2004 who is a moderate, while 29% prefer a candidate who is a liberal. The distinction does not appear to make much difference among the party's rank and file. While Lieberman's candidacy attracts more support among those preferring a moderate to a liberal candidate, Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry show relatively little difference according to respondents' preferences for candidate ideology. Edwards attracts only 6% support of those who prefer a moderate candidate, better than his 3% support among those who prefer a liberal candidate, but this shows that he has not been able to gain a foothold in the middle of the ideological spectrum at this stage in the campaign.
Support for Democratic Candidates by Candidate's Ideology
|
Prefer Candidate Who |
Prefer Candidate Who |
||
|
Lieberman |
18% |
Lieberman |
25% |
|
Gephardt |
15% |
Gephardt |
13% |
|
Dean |
12% |
Dean |
12% |
|
Kerry |
8% |
Kerry |
10% |
|
Graham |
8% |
Graham |
5% |
|
Edwards |
3% |
Edwards |
6% |
Bottom Line
While the data suggest a rather substantial disconnect between what Democrats want in a candidate and whom they are currently supporting, that could certainly change as the nomination race heats up and voters pay more attention to the campaign. But it also may suggest that these characteristics are not key factors in deciding whom Democrats are likely to support. Other factors, which are often hard to measure in a poll, such as a candidate's perceived experience, charisma, campaigning performance, or ability to defeat Bush, could be more important in Democrats' minds when they select their presidential nominee in 2004.
Results are based on telephone interviews with 443 Democrats or independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, conducted Aug. 25-26, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±5 percentage points.