Americans' Perceptions: World Affairs

INTRODUCTION

This document presents results of the annual Gallup Poll Social Series update on World Affairs, conducted Feb. 4-6, 2002. The findings of the current poll, along with historical comparisons to existing Gallup data, reveal the following:

• World affairs and terrorism have a more prominent place in Americans' minds than they did last year.
• Americans show overwhelming approval of George W. Bush as an international leader, to a much greater degree than they did last year.
• There has been little change in the way Americans view the United States' position in the world, although more Americans think the United States should play a leading role in solving international problems than did so prior to Sept. 11.
• Iraq and Iran are the nations Americans view least favorably. Americans' views of Saudi Arabia have shown the greatest decline following Sept. 11. Americans have also become more negative about Egypt. All three countries identified by President Bush as comprising the "Axis of Evil"-- Iraq, Iran and North Korea -- are viewed unfavorably by Americans.
• The five countries Americans view most favorably are Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Japan and France. Americans have become more positive toward Russia in the last year.
• Attitudes about national defense and defense spending are very similar to last year. Americans are actually less likely now than they were last year to say the United States is spending too little on defense, and more likely to say defense spending is about right.
• There has been an increase in support for the development of a missile defense system.
• Views about the Arab-Israeli conflict have changed very little over the last year, although a majority of Americans now believe that the development of a peaceful solution to that conflict is a very important U.S. foreign policy goal.

Contents

• Introduction
• Americans' Concern With World Affairs Increasing
• Impressions of Bush as a World Leader Have Improved Dramatically
• Views of the United States' Position in the World Have Changed Very Little
• Iraq, Iran Are Least Favorably Viewed Nations; Views of Saudi Arabia decline
• Development of Peace in Middle East Seen as More Important Goal to Americans
• Americans Remain Pessimistic That Peace Will Ever Develop between Arabs and Israelis
• Little Change in Americans' Evaluation of the Nation's Defense Capabilities
• Americans' Views on Foreign Aid Have Held Steady
• Evaluations of the United Nations Virtually Unchanged
• Detailed findings

Americans' Concern With World Affairs Increasing

The percentage of Americans who mention "terrorism," "war," or some other aspect of international affairs as the country's most important problem has increased dramatically since last year, from 9% to 44%.

Percentage Mentioning Terrorism or International Issues as Most Important Problem

Based on percentage mentioning "terrorism," "feeling of fear in the country or fear of war," "national security," "international issues or problems," or "lack of military defense."

As might be expected, the percentage of Americans who cite "terrorism" or "war" as the most important problem facing the nation has declined in recent months, although this percentage now appears to be holding steady at roughly one-third, down from 56% in October.

Most Important Problem: Percentage Mentioning Terrorism (Sept. 2001-Feb. 2002)

More Americans today say they are closely following news about foreign affairs than said this a year ago. The percentage who say they are following international news "very closely" has risen from 16% to 26%, although this increase is comparatively modest given the events of the past five months.

In general, how closely do you follow news about foreign countries around the world, including relations between the United States and other countries -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

Americans' Impressions of George W. Bush as a World Leader Have Improved Dramatically

The percentage of Americans who approve of the way President Bush is handling foreign affairs spiked following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and remains high, near 80%. These trends are strongly correlated to the pattern found for Bush's overall job approval rating.

Bush Approval on Foreign Affairs

Americans are much more likely now than they were before Sept. 11 to believe that foreign leaders respect Bush. The level is 75% now, while it stood in the 40% range prior to Sept. 11.

Respect for President Bush Around the World

Eight in 10 Americans now think that Bush does a good job of representing America to the world, representing an increase of 25 percentage points from last June.

Do you think George W. Bush does a good job representing America to the world, or not?

Americans' Views of the United States' Position in the World Have Changed Very Little Since Sept. 11

There has been surprisingly little change in Americans' satisfaction with the position of the United States in the world. Today, 71% of Americans say they are satisfied with the position of the United States in the world, up only slightly from 2000 and 2001. The recent numbers, however, are considerably higher than the corresponding numbers from the 1960s.

Satisfaction With U.S. Position in the World

Following Sept. 11, there has been a slight increase in the public's trust in government to handle international problems. Currently, 81% express a great deal or fair amount of trust in the government, compared with 75% in February 2001.

Trust in Government to Handle International Problems

Overall, 79% of Americans believe the United States is viewed favorably in the eyes of the world, virtually unchanged from last year.

In general, how do you think the United States rates in the eyes of the world -- very favorably, somewhat favorably, somewhat unfavorably, or very unfavorably?

There has been a modest increase in the percentage of Americans who believe that the United States should take the leading role in solving international problems, from 16% in Feb. 2001 to 26% today. Only 20% of Americans now believe that the United States should play a minor role or no role at all in world affairs.

U.S. Role in Solving International Problems

Saudi Arabia Took the Biggest Perceptual Hit in Last Year; Iraq, Iran Are Least Favorably Viewed Nations

The current survey asked Americans to rate their opinions of a list of 25 countries -- some of which have been measured in this fashion for decades.

The basic pattern of the attitudes is not surprising:

• Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Japan and France are most favorably viewed by Americans.
• Iraq, Iran, The Palestinian Authority, Libya and North Korea are least favorably viewed.

Favorability of Nations Around the World: Sorted by Percent "Total Favorable"

There have been several significant changes in these country evaluations since last year. In particular, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have lost considerable ground. Saudi Arabia went from a net +1 positive rating to a net -37 negative rating. Egypt went from a net +42 rating to a net +20 rating. On the other hand, Americans' ratings of Russia improved from a net +10 rating to a net +39 rating.

Americans Have Become More Likely to Believe that the Development of Peace Between the Israelis and the Palestinians Is an Important Goal for the United States

A majority of the American public, 54%, now believes the development of a peaceful solution to the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians should be an important foreign policy goal for the United States, up from 43% who felt this way last February. Americans see resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a more important foreign policy goal than resolving the India-Pakistan conflict and much more important than resolving the Catholic-Protestant conflict in Northern Ireland.

As far as you are concerned, should the development of a peaceful solution to … be a very important foreign policy goal of the United States, a somewhat important goal, not too important, or not an important goal at all?

Americans Still Overwhelmingly Side With Israel in the Middle East Conflict, but Remain Pessimistic That Peace Will Ever Come to That Region

A majority of Americans say they sympathize more with the Israelis than with the Palestinian Arabs; only 14% sympathize more with the Palestinians. These numbers have been consistent over time and show little change since Sept. 11.

Sympathies in the Middle East Situation

However, Americans have grown increasingly negative in their evaluations of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Currently, 73% of Americans view him unfavorably.

Opinion About Yasser Arafat

At the same time, opinions about Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon are much more positive.

Opinion About Ariel Sharon

Just 37% of Americans believe there will come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will settle their differences and live in peace, while 59% think this time will never come. These attitudes have changed little since Sept. 11, but are more pessimistic than they were in July 1999 and January 2000, when a plurality thought peace was possible.

Peace for Israel and the Arab Nations?

Surprisingly, There Has Been Little Change in Americans' Evaluation of the Nation's Defense Capabilities

Half of the public believes the nation's defense is currently at about the right strength, essentially the same percentage who believed that in February 2001. Currently, 43% say the nation's defense is not strong enough, compared to 44% last year.

Do you, yourself, feel that our national defense is stronger now than it needs to be, not strong enough, or about right at the present time?

Nearly half the public feels the federal government spends the right amount on national defense, up from 38% last year. Despite large increases in defense spending in this year's budget, only 17% say the nation spends too much on defense, little changed from last year (19%). There has been a drop in the percentage of Americans saying the government spends too little on defense, from 41% last year to 33% this year.

There is much discussion as to the amount of money the government in Washington should spend for national defense and military purposes. How do you feel about this? Do you think we are spending too little, about the right amount, or too much?

Americans have become more likely to support the development of a missile defense system. Now, a majority of Americans (51%) support spending the money to build such a system, compared with just 41% support in July 2001.

Recently there has been some discussion about the possibility of the United States building a defense system against nuclear missiles. Do you think the government should or should not spend the money that would be required for research and possible development of such a system, or are you unsure?

Americans' Views on Foreign Aid Have Held Steady

Fifty-four percent of Americans say the United States spends too much on foreign aid, compared with 53% last year.

Turning to the issue of foreign aid, do you think the United States is now spending -- too little on foreign aid, about the right amount, or too much on foreign aid?

Evaluations of the United Nations Virtually Unchanged

Americans' views about the job the United Nations is doing are only slightly more positive this year (58% say it is doing a good job) than last year (54%).

Do you think the United Nations is doing a good job or a poor job in trying to solve the problems it has had to face?

GALLUP POLL NEWS SERVICE

Gallup Poll Social Series: World Affairs

-- FINAL TOPLINE --

Results are based on telephone interviews with - 1,011 - National Adults, aged 18+, conducted February 4-6, 2002. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [ROTATED]? How about -- ?

A. The economy

B. Foreign affairs

Do you think leaders of other countries around the world have respect for George W. Bush, or do you think they don't have much respect for him?

In general, how closely do you follow news about foreign countries around the world, including relations between the United States and other countries -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

On the whole, would you say that you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the position of the United States in the world today?

How much trust and confidence do you have in our federal government in Washington when it comes to handling [READ A-B] -- a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all?

A. International Problems

B. Domestic Problems

In general, how do you think the United States rates in the eyes of the world -- very favorably, somewhat favorably, somewhat unfavorably, or very unfavorably?

Next we would like you to think about the role the U.S. should play in trying to solve international problems. Do you think the U.S. should -- [ROTATED: take the leading role in world affairs, take a major role, but not the leading role, take a minor role, (or) take no role at all in world affairs]?

Turning to the issue of foreign aid, do you think the United States is now spending -- [ROTATED: too little on foreign aid, about the right amount, (or) too much on foreign aid]?

There is much discussion as to the amount of money the government in Washington should spend for national defense and military purposes. How do you feel about this? Do you think we are spending too little, about the right amount, or too much?

Do you, yourself, feel that our national defense is stronger now than it needs to be, not strong enough, or about right at the present time?

GALLUP POLL NEWS SERVICE

Gallup Poll Social Series: World Affairs

-- FINAL TOPLINE --

Results are based on telephone interviews with - 1,011 - National Adults, aged 18+, conducted February 4-6, 2002. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Now thinking about the United Nations,

Do you think the United Nations is doing a good job or a poor job in trying to solve the problems it has had to face?

Recently there has been some discussion about the possibility of the United States building a defense system against nuclear missiles. Do you think the government should or should not spend the money that would be required for research and possible development of such a system, or are you unsure?

How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?

BASED ON -- 506 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A; ±5 PCT. PTS.

How likely do you think it is that a terrorist attack of some sort will occur at the Winter Olympics taking place in Salt Lake City -- very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

BASED ON -- 505 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B; ±5 PCT. PTS.

Next, I'd like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. First, is your overall opinion of [RANDOM ORDER]very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? How about -- [INSERT NEXT ITEM]?

FAVORABILITY OF NATIONS TREND

A. Afghanistan

B. Canada

C. China

D. Colombia

E. Cuba

F. Egypt

G. France

H. Germany

GALLUP POLL NEWS SERVICE

Gallup Poll Social Series: World Affairs

-- FINAL TOPLINE --

Results are based on telephone interviews with - 1,011 - National Adults, aged 18+, conducted February 4-6, 2002. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

FAVORABILITY OF NATIONS TREND, continued

I. Great Britain

J. India

K. Iran

L. Iraq

M. Israel

N. Japan

O. Libya

P. Mexico

GALLUP POLL NEWS SERVICE

Gallup Poll Social Series: World Affairs

-- FINAL TOPLINE --

Results are based on telephone interviews with - 1,011 - National Adults, aged 18+, conducted February 4-6, 2002. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

FAVORABILITY OF NATIONS TREND, continued

Q. North Korea

R. Pakistan

S. The Philippines

T. Russia

U. Saudi Arabia

V. South Korea

W. Taiwan

X. The Palestinian Authority

Y. Vietnam