Questions and Answers About the California Recall Election
Tuesday, August 19, 2003
by Joseph Carroll
1. Is the Recall Effort Likely to Succeed?
At this stage in the campaign, less than two months before the Oct. 7 special election, the answer appears to be yes. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Aug. 7-10 found 64% of registered voters in California saying incumbent Gov. Gray Davis should be removed from office. Only 29% said he should stay in office.
A more recent poll, conducted Aug. 10-13 by the Field Institute in San Francisco, finds similar results. Fifty-eight percent of likely voters in California say they will vote to remove Davis from office. These results show a seven-percentage-point increase from a Field poll conducted last month. More than 9 in 10 California Republicans support the idea of the recall, compared with 27% of California Democrats.
Recall opponents are planning major efforts, including a visit from former President Bill Clinton, to help keep Davis as governor.
2. Who Leads the Race to Replace Davis as Governor of California?
The Field poll shows Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and Republican actor Arnold Schwarzenegger drawing the most support to replace Davis if the recall passes on Oct. 7. Bustamante was supported by 25% of poll respondents and Schwarzenegger by 22%. Other contenders on the list include: Republican State Senator Tom McClintock at 9%, 2002 GOP gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bill Simon at 8%, and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth at 5%. However, a substantial 44% of voters with a candidate preference said they could change their minds between now and the election.
The Aug. 7-10 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll asked Californians if there was a very good chance, a good chance, some chance, not much chance, or no chance that they would vote for a list of major candidates. The results show that 42% of registered voters said there would be a very good or good chance of them voting for Schwarzenegger, followed by 24% for former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan (who subsequently withdrew his name from the ballot), and 22% for Bustamante.
3. How Do Californians Feel About Arnold Schwarzenegger?
There has been much discussion in the media about the degree to which the candidacy of movie actor Schwarzenegger is a serious effort by a well-qualified candidate. But the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that the vast majority of California registered voters take his candidacy seriously (73%), while just 23% consider it "a joke." Sixty-nine percent of California voters believe that Schwarzenegger has the personal qualities a governor should have, while 23% disagree.
Additionally, California voters appear sanguine about the actor's lack of political experience. By a 2-to-1 margin, 52% to 26%, they think he would do a better job, rather than worse job, than someone with a career as an elected public official. Reinforcing the electoral support Schwarzenegger receives is an exceptionally high favorability rating, with 79% of registered voters in California expressing a positive view of the former bodybuilding champion and current movie star, and just 12% having an unfavorable opinion.