GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Not only did Arnold Schwarzenegger succeed in convincing California voters that he is the best person to run that state, but he has achieved a national image as a political outsider who is up to the difficult tasks facing him. A solid majority of Americans believe Schwarzenegger will be successful in his new job. Also, despite a number of sexual misconduct allegations leveled at him during the recent recall election -- some of which he acknowledged were true -- he is as popular among women nationwide as he is among men.
Confidence in the Republican governor-elect of California is generally bipartisan across the country. A majority of Democrats and independents, as well as Republicans, believe Schwarzenegger will be successful (although Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independents to believe this).
| Just your best guess, do you think Arnold Schwarzenegger will be successful – or not successful – as governor of California? |
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| Oct. 10-12, 2003 |
Most Americans -- including a majority of Republicans and Democrats -- also agree that he "represents a new approach to politics, different from the usual politicians." This was certainly a central theme in the Schwarzenegger gubernatorial campaign. The fact that a substantial majority disagrees may indicate a natural skepticism among Americans about the inherently political nature of anyone who runs for office.
| Please tell me if you tend to agree or disagree that Arnold Schwarzenegger represents a new approach to politics, different from the usual politicians. |
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| Oct. 10-12, 2003 |
Although the majority of Americans think that Schwarzenegger will be successful, only two in five Americans living outside California tell Gallup they would vote for Schwarzenegger if he were running for governor in their state. This sentiment did not change between late August and shortly after the October recall election.
| Would you vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger if he were running for governor in your state, or not? |
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| Based on 893 Non-Californians |
However, this seemingly anti-Schwarzenegger finding most likely reflects the fact that the majority of Americans are generally content with the current leadership of their own states, and thus see no need for Schwarzenegger to step in. In an early September Gallup survey, 53% of national adults said they had a great deal or fair amount of confidence in their state governments; 46% had little or no confidence. In the latest survey, a quarter of non-California residents nationwide would recall their own governors if they had the chance.
| If you had the chance, would you vote to recall the governor of your state, or not? |
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| Based on 893 Non-Californians Oct. 10-12, 2003 |
No Female Backlash
According to the Los Angeles Times exit poll conducted on Election Day, Oct. 7, the vote for Schwarzenegger as a replacement candidate for Gov. Gray Davis was highly partisan. He received the support of 76% of Republicans, 46% of independents, and 23% of Democrats. There was also a modest gender gap, with only 44% of women versus 52% of men voting for Schwarzenegger. According to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, outside California he is less divisive, as only eight points separate Republican and Democratic support for Schwarzenegger, and equal levels of men and women say they would vote for him.
| Would you vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger if he were running for governor in your state, or not? |
 |
| Based on 893 Non-Californians Oct. 10-12, 2003 |
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 10-12, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. For the subsample of 893 non-Californians, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
29. If you had the chance, would you vote to recall the governor of your state, or not?
BASED ON –893—NON-CALIFORNIANS
|
Yes, would |
No, would not |
No opinion |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
25 |
72 |
3 |
|
|
2003 Jul 25-27 ^ |
29 |
68 |
3 |
|
|
^ |
Based on –906—non-Californians |
|||
30. Please tell me if you tend to agree or disagree that Arnold Schwarzeneggerrepresents a new approach to politics, different from the usual politicians.
|
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
65% |
31 |
4 |
Trends for Comparison:
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about Ronald Reagan? He represents a new approach to politics, different from most politicians (Source: Louis Harris and Associates)
|
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
|
|
1967 Dec |
55% |
19 |
26 |
|
1968 Sep |
58% |
12 |
30 |
31. Just your best guess, do you think Arnold Schwarzenegger will be successful – or not successful – as governor of California?
|
Successful |
Not |
No |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
61% |
34 |
5 |
32. Would you vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger if he were running for governor in your state, or not?
BASED ON –893—NON-CALIFORNIANS
|
Yes, would |
No, would not |
No opinion |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
39 |
55 |
6 |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 ^ |
40 |
55 |
5 |
|
|
^ |
Based on –905—non-Californians |
|||
