2004 Election
After all the campaigning and hype, this week marks the first actual voting of election 2004. Residents of the District of Columbia go to the polls for their (often overlooked) Democratic primary today, less than one week ahead of the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19. The caucuses will in turn be followed by the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 27. I think it's fair to say that we enter this year's election season with two "starting point" hypotheses, based on Gallup's latest analysis of public opinion data.
First, President George W. Bush has to be considered the initial favorite to win next November -- on a statistical basis alone. Six of the nine presidents who have attempted re-election since 1948 have been successful; only three were not. Bush has job approval ratings well above 50% as the year begins, and there are no imminent signs that he will suffer from the severe economic problems that beset the last two presidents to be defeated, Jimmy Carter and Bush the elder.
Second, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean remains the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. He maintains a slim lead nationally when Democrats are asked for whom they are going to vote, he is ahead or tied in polling in the first two major voting events of the year (Iowa and New Hampshire), and he is the Democratic leader in fund-raising and high-profile endorsements.
Will Howard Dean Be Nominated?
With that said, much can change that would affect both of these initial assumptions. There are as many theories about how the primary season may play out as there are pundits contemplating the process. From our perspective here at Gallup, we can say with some certitude that historically, the candidate who leads in national polling at the beginning of the year by no means always goes on to win his party's nomination. Front-runners often falter. In other words, Dean is not a shoe-in.
Indeed, our last two Gallup Polls have shown that Dean's lead among registered Democrats nationally has shrunk, with retired Gen. Wesley Clark now within six points of Dean in the latest trial heat measure conducted this weekend. An additional examination of Democrats' second choices for their party's nomination (respondents were first asked whom they would support for the Democratic nomination, then they were asked for a second choice) confirms that the race is shaping up into a two-person affair; Dean gets 45% of the first and second choices of registered Democrats, Clark gets 34%, and no other candidate gets more than 18%.
Additionally, our data confirm that Dean does no better (but no worse) against Bush than several of the other potential Democratic candidates do. Bush beats Dean by 56% to 41% among likely voters nationwide; Bush beats Clark by an almost identical 56% to 42%; Bush beats Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt by 56% to 42%; and Bush beats Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry by 55% to 43%.
These national numbers are to some degree the bottom line to monitor as the primary and caucus results begin to come in. The caucuses in Iowa, for example, represent the opinions of just a fraction of Democratic voters across the country. Their significance lies in their impact in the thinking of voters elsewhere. Gephardt (who is either tied with or leading Dean in Iowa polling) and the other candidates' hope is that they will do so well in Iowa that it will force Democrats in other states to take notice. Our tracking of what Democrats across the country feel about the candidates will be a key measure of how this process plays itself out.
Can Bush Be Defeated?
What would need to happen for a Democrat to unseat Bush on Nov. 2? First, the Democratic candidate (whomever he/she may be) needs to come across to voters in a charismatic, appealing way. Despite all the focus on issues in an election campaign, a candidate's style, demeanor, and personality can be extremely important to voters. I think that's likely what happened in California when actor Arnold Schwarzenegger impressed voters with the sheer novelty and force of his personality.
I don't see signs of this type of Schwarzeneggerian charisma in any of the Democratic candidates yet, but the race is still young. And we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that so far, Dean has been able to impress a significant number of Democratic primary voters.
Second, a Democratic win in November probably is going to depend on a widely recognized retrenchment in the economy -- significant enough to make voters perceive that a change in the White House would be more likely than the status quo to restore economic progress.
Such a retrenchment certainly isn't happening now. All of Gallup's economic indicators are up. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will stay up (economic optimism jumped in the spring of 2002, only to fall again fairly quickly), but the odds of a significant downturn are probably less than 50/50.
Democrats are attempting to play up the fact that economic progress is seemingly occurring without major gains in jobs, and this issue could possibly grow into a major Achilles' heel for the Republicans. But all in all, it's hard to overlook the fact that the majority of Americans are not worried about being laid off, they are not worried about their standard of living eroding, and they are not worried about being able to pay their healthcare costs.
Finally, there is the international sphere, which so far has been the major issue Dean and other Democratic candidates have used in their attacks on the Bush administration. The U.S. foreign affairs situation is the most unstable of all the circumstances that could possibly affect the election. No one knows how the Iraqi situation will look six months from now (although there is 59% support for U.S. involvement there at the moment), and there is always the huge potential impact of possible new terrorist events. However, all Gallup data suggest that handling terror is a strength for Bush, so it is unclear what the impact of any new events will be on the election race.
Still, the Democrats have some key issues that could potentially help them if they could somehow move voters to the point at which they perceive these issues as major concerns to be taken into account in the election. Democrats have strong positioning on the environment, healthcare, and education, but to date these issues have been swamped in the campaigning by Iraq, terrorism, and the economy.
All in all, despite my initial assumptions that Dean is a tenuous favorite for his party's nomination and that Bush is the favorite to win re-election next fall, it's still too early to make such estimates with any certainty. In fact, a sizable hunk of voters are still "in play," as the political professionals say. Gallup's weekend poll shows that 39% of likely voters are core Bush supporters and won't change their minds about voting for him. Another 33% say they are core "anybody-but-Bush" voters and won't change their minds the other way. That leaves 28% who have still not made up their minds, and that's a big enough group to make a big difference in the eventual election outcome.
Mexico
There are other things in the news this week besides the election. Bush is in Monterrey, Mexico, for the Summit of the Americas. Our latest data on Americans' views of foreign countries shows that 75% have a favorable opinion of Mexico. Thirty-four percent say Mexico is an ally, while another 54% say it is friendly, if not an ally.
Over the last decade, there has been much disagreement over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its benefits or lack thereof for the American public, and Mexico plays a large role in those debates. Gallup's weekend poll shows that 38% of Americans think NAFTA has been good for the country, while 46% think it has been bad. Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to say it has been bad for the country.
Martha Stewart
Martha Stewart's trial on obstruction of justice and securities fraud charges is set to begin later this month. Asked about the lifestyle guru in our weekend poll, 36% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of her, while 55% say they have an unfavorable opinion. Her image is roughly the same as it was in September 2002.
Pete Rose
Baseball player (and admitted gambler) Pete Rose isn't doing too well in the eyes of the people, either. He has an unfavorable image among 49% of Americans, compared to a 34% favorable image. Still, a slight majority (54%) of Americans say he should be allowed into the baseball Hall of Fame despite his gambling history, although support for his enshrinement in Cooperstown is lower than it was the three previous times we asked about it (twice in 2003 and once in 1999).
Space
According to reports, this week the Bush administration will announce an ambitious plan to return Americans to the moon, and from that point launch manned missions to Mars within the next 15 to 20 years. Many scientists disagree with this approach to space exploration, arguing that unmanned probes (such as the NASA rover, Spirit, which is on the surface of Mars now) are a much less dangerous and much more cost-efficient way to explore space and obtain scientific data about the universe.
All of the available survey evidence, however, suggests that Americans like the idea of manned space exploration, perhaps for the psychological benefits it brings to the human species. Gallup has given the public a choice between manned and unmanned space exploration a number of times since 1989, and found most times that Americans favor the manned option. Most recently, in a Feb. 7-9, 2003, poll, 52% favored manned missions while 37% preferred unmanned.
Smoking
Jan. 11 marked the 40th anniversary of the surgeon general's first warning about the dangers of smoking. How far have we come since that point? The percentage of American adults who smoke cigarettes is now at 26%, compared to 45% in the mid-1950s. Clearly, Americans recognize the dangers of smoking -- 97% now agree that smoking is very or somewhat harmful to adults who smoke, and 87% agree that second-hand smoke is very/somewhat harmful to adults. But the majority of Americans, 84%, still agree that despite these dangers, the decision to smoke should be left up to the individual and smoking should not be made totally illegal.