PRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has moved into the lead among likely New Hampshire primary voters. The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll in New Hampshire, with interviews conducted Jan. 19-21, shows Kerry with 30% of the vote, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean with 25%, retired Gen. Wesley Clark with 18%, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 11%. Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, and the Rev. Al Sharpton are all in single digits.
| Likely New Hampshire Voters: If the Democratic Primary Were Held Today, for Whom Would You Vote? |
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| Jan. 19-21, 2004 |
The latest three-day rolling average includes two nights of interviewing conducted after the results of the Iowa caucuses became widely known, and one night of interviewing (Monday) as the Iowa caucuses were taking place. It is clear that Kerry's victory in Iowa benefited him among New Hampshire voters, and it is plausible that Dean was hurt not only by his third-place showing in Iowa, but also by the extraordinary visibility being given to his high-intensity exhortations to his supporters in Iowa on Monday night, including what is now being called "the scream."
| Likely New Hampshire Voters: If the Democratic Primary Were Held Today, for Whom Would You Vote? |
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Still, it appears from an analysis of trends in the tracking data that Kerry did no better on Wednesday night than he did on Tuesday, suggesting that Kerry's margin over Dean will not necessarily continue to increase. In fact, there are two high-profile events on Thursday night that may shake up the race even further: a) a debate at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, N.H., among the seven Democratic candidates still left standing, and b) a nationally televised interview with Dean and his wife, Dr. Judith Steinberg, conducted by ABC News' Diane Sawyer. The Dean campaign has been subject to criticism for his wife's absence from the campaign trail (save for one recent appearance in Iowa). These events, of course, are in addition to the barrage of campaigning, advertisements, phone calls, and radio and television advertisements to which New Hampshire voters are being subjected and which also have the potential to change voters' minds.
Thus, it is by no means inevitable that Kerry will win in New Hampshire on Tuesday, any more than it was inevitable that Dean was going to win in New Hampshire because he was ahead in other, earlier polls. Much can and no doubt will change going into the weekend, although by Saturday and Sunday there should be a good indication of how the race will ultimately shake out.
Edwards has shown some improvement in New Hampshire after his surprising second-place showing in the Iowa caucuses, but is still far behind the leaders. Edwards now gets 11% of the projected votes of likely New Hampshire primary voters, up modestly from 7% in the Jan. 17-19 (pre-Iowa) poll.
Clark, who had come from behind into a clear second-place position in some polls conducted in New Hampshire prior to the Iowa caucuses (and prior to the rise of Kerry), has drifted from 21% of the vote in the Jan. 17-19 polling to 18% in the latest Jan. 19-21 sample.
An analysis of the trends within subgroups in New Hampshire indicates that Kerry has improved his positioning most among 18- to 34-year-old likely voters -- Dean's strongest demographic group -- over the last several days. In the Jan. 17-19 poll, Kerry was behind Dean among this younger age group, 40% to 9%. Now, in the Jan. 19-21 poll, Dean still leads among 18- to 34-year-olds, but by only 33% to 21%.
Not only is Kerry now ahead of Dean by 5 points in terms of Democratic likely voters' first choices, he has a more commanding 10-point lead when first and second choices are taken into account. In short, more likely voters choose Kerry as their second choice than choose Dean. Kerry has 50% of all first and second choices, compared with 40% for Dean, 34% for Clark, 27% for Edwards, and 18% for Lieberman.
Survey Methods
New Hampshire tracking results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 280 New Hampshire residents per night who say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary. Results are reported in three-day rolling averages.
The most recent results are based on interviews conducted Jan. 19-21, 2004, with 646 New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the Democratic primary on Jan. 27. For this sample, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±4 percentage points.
The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout rate of 60% of those who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, approximately 25% of New Hampshire adults. The likely voter results are weighted to match this assumption (weighted sample size is 502).
All results reported here are based on likely voters.
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Number of Interviews |
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Plan to vote in |
Likely |
Margin of error, |
|
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2004 Jan 19-21 |
852 |
646 |
±4 |