GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- If Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry wins the New Hampshire presidential primary today, as the final CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll results suggests he will, it will be a broad-based victory for him. According to the final tracking poll results, conducted Jan. 24-25 among New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the primary, Kerry leads or is at least statistically tied for the lead within each key demographic subgroup.
Overall, 36% of likely voters plan to vote for Kerry. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is second with 25% of the vote, and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (13%), Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (10%), and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (10%) will be competing for third place. Long-shot candidates Dennis Kucinich and the Rev. Al Sharpton are each being supported by just 1% of likely voters. The final poll showed 4% of New Hampshire likely voters are still undecided. The analysis presented below is limited to the top five candidates.
Gender
Kerry is the top candidate among both men and women likely voters, leading Dean by 11 points among men and by 13 among women. Kerry does slightly better among women (39%) than men (34%). Clark and Lieberman are both polling better among men than women.
Voting Intention in New Hampshire Primary by Gender, Likely Voters
|
Men |
Women |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Kerry |
34 |
39 |
|
Dean |
23 |
26 |
|
Clark |
16 |
11 |
|
Lieberman |
12 |
8 |
|
Edwards |
9 |
11 |
Age
To date, the conventional wisdom (as well as the finding of many polls) is that Dean has the market cornered on the youth vote. Indeed, Dean cites the enthusiasm of his young supporters in Iowa as the reason for his now-famous scream in his concession speech there. In New Hampshire, however, Kerry (35%) gets a larger share of the vote among 18- to 34-year-olds than does Dean (32%), though the difference is within the margin of error. Dean's support is not as great among older voters in New Hampshire, while Kerry scores similarly among all age groups. As a result, Kerry has a fairly strong lead among middle-aged voters (he leads Dean by 10 percentage points) and older voters (he leads Dean by 17 points). Edwards does considerably worse among the youngest age group (getting just 6% support) than he does among voters aged 35 to 54 (12%). Clark and Lieberman, like Kerry, score about the same among all age groups.
Voting Intention in New Hampshire Primary by Age, Likely Voters
|
18 to 34 |
35 to 54 |
55+ |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Kerry |
35 |
35 |
39 |
|
Dean |
32 |
25 |
22 |
|
Clark |
13 |
13 |
15 |
|
Lieberman |
8 |
10 |
11 |
|
Edwards |
6 |
12 |
8 |
Education
Dean's national lead in fundraising is often attributed to his appeal to highly educated, wealthier Democrats. In New Hampshire, Dean does considerably better among those with a postgraduate education (29%) than among those with a four-year college degree (19%) and somewhat better among those who do not have a college degree (24%). But again, Kerry does just as well as Dean does among postgrads, and much better among those with less education than that. Kerry leads Dean by 22 points among college graduates and 14 points among non-college graduates. Edwards receives a larger share of support from college graduates than postgraduates or non-college graduates.
Voting Intention in New Hampshire Primary by Education, Likely Voters
|
Postgraduate |
College graduate |
Non-college graduate |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Kerry |
31 |
41 |
38 |
|
Dean |
29 |
19 |
24 |
|
Clark |
13 |
12 |
15 |
|
Lieberman |
12 |
9 |
9 |
|
Edwards |
9 |
14 |
8 |
Ideology
Some of the largest subgroup differences in primary voting this year are found among ideological groups. Even so, New Hampshire voters of all political persuasions support Kerry at high levels. Other candidates' support is more related to ideology. Specifically, 40% of self-identified liberal New Hampshire voters are supporting Dean, while only 3% support Lieberman and just 7% support Clark. Among self-described conservative primary voters (which amounts to only one out of six primary voters), 24% support Lieberman and 16% support Clark, while just 8% support Dean, placing him fifth in this subgroup. Moderate voters' candidate preferences generally mirror the results of the overall ballot, though Clark tends to do somewhat better and Dean somewhat worse among this group.
Voting Intention in New Hampshire Primary by Political Ideology, Likely Voters
|
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Kerry |
38 |
37 |
32 |
|
Dean |
40 |
20 |
8 |
|
Clark |
7 |
17 |
16 |
|
Lieberman |
3 |
10 |
24 |
|
Edwards |
8 |
11 |
12 |
Party Registration
The New Hampshire primary is a "semi-open primary," meaning residents who are not currently registered to vote, or who are registered as independents, may vote in the primary (Republicans may not vote in this year's Democratic primary). As such, significant numbers of independents often vote in the presidential primaries in New Hampshire, and Gallup's polling suggests that a larger number of independents may vote in this year's primary than has been the case historically. Again, the data show Kerry leads comfortably among both groups. If New Hampshire were a closed primary state (in which only those currently registered as Democrats would be able to vote), Clark and Lieberman would probably not be faring as well as the polls indicate. If larger numbers of independent voters go to the polls as predicted, that would likely mean higher levels of support for Clark, Lieberman, and Edwards.
Voting Intention in New Hampshire Primary by Party Registration, Likely Voters
|
|
Registered Independent/Other Party |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Kerry |
40 |
33 |
|
Dean |
28 |
20 |
|
Clark |
9 |
18 |
|
Lieberman |
7 |
14 |
|
Edwards |
9 |
11 |
Additionally, the data generally do not show any regional differences, dividing New Hampshire into its Northern and Central counties (Grafton, Carroll, Coos, Cheshire, Sullivan, Belknap, and Merrimack) and the more populous southern counties (Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Strafford). Dean's support is somewhat higher in the northern and central counties than in the southern counties.
As Monday's Gallup release showed, Kerry also tends to be the favored candidate regardless of which issue New Hampshire voters identify as the most important for them in the primary election. Kerry's broad-based support most likely results from the widely held perception among likely New Hampshire primary voters that he has the best chance of beating George W. Bush in the November general election.
Survey Methods
The most recent results are based on interviews conducted Jan. 24-25, 2004, with 970 New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the Democratic primary. For this sample, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±3 percentage points. Margins of error for sample subgroups would be slightly higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
The likely voter model assumes a turnout rate of 60% of those who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, approximately 25% of New Hampshire adults. The likely voter results are weighted to match this assumption (weighted sample size is 720).
All results reported here are based on likely voters.
