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McCain’s Odds of Winning the Nomination Look Good

McCain’s Odds of Winning the Nomination Look Good

Frank Newport

All signs look positive for John McCain now. Our Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that McCain leads the Republican field nationally. Even before his Florida victory, McCain's lead over Mitt Romney was expanding in our interviewing we did on Monday night. Currently, in interviewing that includes Tuesday night -- but still doesn't reflect the full impact of his Florida win -- he is leading Romney by 11 points. Romney remains just slightly ahead of Mike Huckabee in second place.

Given the wide expanse of states voting next week on Super Tuesday, these national numbers are critically important. McCain's strong positioning is bolstered when we look at his leads in USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in both California and New York. Again, we conducted these surveys prior to the Florida vote, and the possible bounce McCain will get from his victory there in the Sunshine State.

Gallup will track the GOP race every day, as it will be important to see what happens when Rudy Giuliani officially drops out the race, as is widely expected, and if he endorses McCain. This would then reduce the field to four players: McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Ron Paul. It would not be surprising to find McCain further expanding his national lead in Wednesday night's interviewing.

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