GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Massachusetts senator and potential Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry leading President George W. Bush by a 53% to 46% margin in a trial-heat matchup among likely voters. The poll also probed deeper into Americans' views of Kerry and Bush, and finds both candidates have relative strengths and weaknesses. Americans are slightly more likely to see Kerry's political views, rather Bush's views, as acceptable. Neither candidate has a decided advantage on war issues, but Kerry appears to have an edge on the economy. In terms of personality characteristics, Americans tend to think of Kerry as a champion of the average American, while they view Bush as the stronger leader.
The poll, conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 1 and prior to Tuesday's Democratic primaries and caucuses in seven states, shows Kerry as the strongest Democratic challenger to Bush at this point in the campaign. Kerry's relative standing to Bush has changed dramatically in recent weeks. A Jan. 9-11 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush with a 12-point lead over Kerry among likely voters, for a net shift of 19 points.
Kerry currently has a higher favorable rating than Bush does -- 61% of Americans view Kerry favorably, while just 52% view Bush positively. Kerry's favorable rating surged following his wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, from 31% to 61%, and is the most positive among the Democratic presidential candidates.
Policy Views
When asked to describe the overall political views of Kerry and Bush, 46% of Americans say Kerry's views are "about right," 29% say they are too liberal, and 8% say they are too conservative. A smaller percentage, 36%, says Bush's political views are about right. The plurality of Americans say Bush is too conservative (39%), while about one in five (18%) say his views are too liberal.
| Opinion of Candidate’s Political Views |
 |
| Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004 |
Looking at specific issues, neither candidate appears to have a decided edge on war-related issues, at least based on the results of the two questions on the issue. Half of Americans say they would trust Kerry more than Bush to decide whether to send U.S. troops to war, while 45% take the opposing view. On the other hand, half believe Bush would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq, while 44% think Kerry would.
| Opinion of Candidate’s Ability to Handle War and Iraq |
 |
| Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004 |
On the economy, Kerry appears to have a slight edge. The poll asked about three specific economic concerns, and Kerry did no worse than tie Bush on each. Specifically, by a 53% to 41% margin, Americans say they have more trust in Kerry than in Bush to protect their families' economic interests. Kerry has a slightly larger advantage, 56% to 36%, on the matter of making sure good jobs are available to all Americans. The two candidates are essentially tied on making sure business conditions and the stock market are good, with 46% expressing more confidence in Kerry and 45% in Bush.
| Opinion of Candidate’s Ability to Handle Economic Issues |
 |
| Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004 |
Personal Characteristics
Even at this early stage in the campaign, the American public has fairly distinct views of the two candidates' personal characteristics. Generally speaking, Kerry is viewed as more in tune with the needs of the average American, while Bush is seen as having better leadership characteristics.
ADVANTAGE ON PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRAITS
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|||
|
Is in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face |
56 |
33 |
+23 |
|
|
Puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests |
52 |
38 |
+14 |
|
|
Shares your values |
50 |
41 |
+9 |
|
|
Has a likeable personality |
46 |
43 |
+3 |
|
|
Can manage the government effectively |
46 |
45 |
+1 |
|
|
Is a strong and decisive leader |
39 |
53 |
-14 |
|
|
Is patriotic |
34 |
49 |
-15 |
|
|
Stands up for what he believes in |
34 |
53 |
-19 |
|
|
+ |
Advantage indicates Kerry lead |
|||
|
- |
Advantage indicates Bush lead |
|||
Kerry's relative strengths are the perceptions that he is "in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face," "puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests," and "shares your values." Conversely, Bush has an advantage for "standing up for what he believes in," for being "patriotic," and for being a "strong and decisive leader." The two candidates are more evenly matched on having a likeable personality and being able to manage the government effectively.
As the campaign continues, the candidates will strive to draw greater distinctions between themselves on policy issues and on their qualifications for leading the country for the next four years. In the current political environment, Kerry appears to be a strong challenger to Bush. However, Kerry still has some apparent weaknesses in relation to Bush.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,001 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
8. Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. First, ... How about... [ITEM A READ FIRST, THEN ITEMS B-D ROTATED, ITEM E READ LAST]
|
George W. Bush |
||||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
52 |
47 |
-- |
1 |
|
2004 Jan 2-5 |
65 |
35 |
-- |
* |
|
2003 Oct 6-8 |
60 |
39 |
-- |
1 |
|
2003 Jun 27-29 |
65 |
34 |
-- |
1 |
|
2003 Jun 9-10 |
66 |
33 |
-- |
1 |
|
2003 Jan 31-Feb 2 |
68 |
32 |
-- |
* |
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
68 |
30 |
-- |
2 |
|
2002 Sep 23-26 |
70 |
28 |
-- |
2 |
|
2002 Jul 26-28 |
71 |
26 |
-- |
3 |
|
2002 May 20-22 |
80 |
18 |
-- |
2 |
|
2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
79 |
19 |
-- |
2 |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
83 |
15 |
-- |
2 |
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
87 |
11 |
-- |
2 |
|
2001 Aug 3-5 |
60 |
35 |
1 |
4 |
|
2001 Jun 8-10 |
62 |
36 |
* |
2 |
|
2001 Apr 20-22 |
65 |
32 |
0 |
3 |
|
2001 Mar 9-11 |
63 |
32 |
0 |
5 |
|
2001 Mar 5-7 |
69 |
28 |
* |
3 |
|
2001 Feb 19-21 |
67 |
27 |
* |
6 |
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
64 |
33 |
* |
3 |
|
2001 Jan 15-16 |
62 |
36 |
* |
2 |
|
2000 Dec 15-17 |
59 |
36 |
1 |
4 |
|
2000 Dec 2-4 |
56 |
40 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Nov 13-15 |
53 |
43 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Nov 4-5 ^ |
55 |
39 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Oct 24-26 ^ |
62 |
33 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Oct 23-25 ^ |
60 |
35 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Oct 20-22 ^ |
59 |
37 |
* |
4 |
|
2000 Oct 5-7 ^ |
58 |
36 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Sep 28-30 ^ |
55 |
38 |
0 |
7 |
|
2000 Sep 15-17^ |
51 |
41 |
1 |
7 |
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
60 |
34 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
67 |
28 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Jul 25-26 |
63 |
31 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Jul 14-16 |
64 |
29 |
* |
7 |
|
2000 Jun 23-25 |
60 |
31 |
0 |
9 |
|
2000 Jun 6-7 |
64 |
29 |
0 |
7 |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
61 |
33 |
* |
6 |
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
63 |
32 |
* |
5 |
|
2000 Feb 25-27 |
57 |
35 |
1 |
7 |
|
2000 Feb 20-21 |
58 |
35 |
* |
7 |
|
2000 Feb 4-6 |
63 |
31 |
0 |
6 |
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
66 |
26 |
* |
8 |
|
1999 Dec 9-12 |
68 |
25 |
1 |
6 |
|
1999 Oct 21-24 |
71 |
21 |
1 |
7 |
|
1999 Oct 8-10 |
70 |
25 |
1 |
4 |
|
1999 Sept 23-26 |
71 |
22 |
1 |
6 |
|
1999 Aug 16-18 |
68 |
21 |
1 |
10 |
|
1999 June 25-27 |
69 |
16 |
4 |
11 |
|
1999 Apr 13-14 |
73 |
15 |
3 |
9 |
|
1999 Feb 19-21 |
69 |
12 |
5 |
14 |
|
^ Based on registered voters |
||||
B. John Kerry
|
|
|
Never |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2004 J2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
61 |
23 |
6 |
10 |
|
2004 J2004 Jan 2-5 |
31 |
32 |
19 |
18 |
|
2003 22003 Nov 10-12 |
31 |
24 |
26 |
19 |
|
2002 22002 Dec 16-17 |
31 |
13 |
32 |
24 |
|
1999 11999 Feb 19-21 |
30 |
9 |
39 |
22 |
20. For each of the following candidates, please say whether you think his political views are too conservative, about right, or too liberal. How about –[RANDOM ORDER]?
A. George W. Bush
|
Too |
About |
Too |
No |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
39 |
36 |
18 |
7 |
|
|
2000 Aug 18-19 |
40 |
41 |
12 |
7 |
|
|
2000 Aug 4-5 |
30 |
50 |
13 |
7 |
|
|
2000 Jul 25-26 ^ |
30 |
45 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
2000 Mar 10-12 |
30 |
47 |
14 |
9 |
|
|
2000 Feb 25-27 |
33 |
38 |
16 |
13 |
|
|
2000 Jan 17-19 |
27 |
45 |
12 |
16 |
|
|
1999 Oct 8-10 |
27 |
50 |
16 |
7 |
|
|
^ |
Asked of a half sample. |
||||
B. John Kerry
|
Too |
About |
Too |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
8% |
46 |
29 |
17 |
21. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to John Kerry or more to George W. Bush. How about –[RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Shares your values
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
50% |
41 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
B. Is in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
56% |
33 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
C. Is a strong and decisive leader
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
39% |
53 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
D. Can manage the government effectively
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
46% |
45 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
E. Puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
52% |
38 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
F. Has a likeable personality
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
46% |
43 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
G. Is patriotic
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
34% |
49 |
14 |
* |
3 |
H. Stands up for what he believes in
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
34% |
53 |
9 |
1 |
3 |
22. If a situation arose that required the president to make a decision about sending U.S. troops to war, who would you trust more to make that decision – [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?
BASED ON –469—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
50% |
45 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
23. Who do you think would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq– [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?
BASED ON –532—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B
|
|
|
BOTH |
NEIT- |
No |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
44% |
50 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
24. Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, would you say you have more confidence in John Kerry or George W. Bush to -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Protect your family's economic interests
|
Kerry |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
53% |
41 |
3 |
3 |
B. Make sure business conditions and the stock market are as good as possible
|
Kerry |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
46% |
45 |
4 |
5 |
C. Make sure good jobs are available to all Americans
|
Kerry |
Bush |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
56% |
36 |
4 |
4 |
