Bush Approval Steady at 51%

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating has remained essentially steady for the past month, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted last week. The Republican-controlled Congress, however, has not fared as well, experiencing a significant drop in approval. At the same time, a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, which is no change from the middle of January, but a significant change from early January, when Americans were approaching the new year with a more optimistic attitude.

Bush Approval

The latest poll, conducted Feb. 9-12, shows 51% of Americans approving, and 46% disapproving, of Bush's job performance. In four readings over the past month, his approval rating has fluctuated between 49% and 53%, suggesting little substantive change over that period. But the current rating is down significantly from the middle of last December, after the capture of Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein. Although Bush's approval rating had been as low as 50% twice in the fall of 2003, Hussein's capture was followed by a seven-point "rally effect," with public approval of the president's job performance jumping from 56% to 63%.

Bush Approval Rating Overall and Compared by Party Affiliation (Percentage Who Approve in Each Group)

The rally lasted only a month, with Bush's approval rating returning to its pre-capture level by the middle of January, and then declining still further at the end of the month. Since then, his approval has remained in the low 50% range.

The greatest fluctuation in Bush's approval is found among Democrats, who went from a 22% approval rating of the president before Hussein's capture to 36% afterward. By contrast, Republicans and independents showed only six-point and five-point rally effects, respectively, from the capture.

Following the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll found Bush's approval by Democrats at only 12%, the lowest level of the Bush presidency. By contrast, Republican approval remained at 89%, while approval among independents, at 48%, was still six points higher than the low for that group in mid-November of last year. The low rating among Democrats may have reflected the high publicity given to the Democratic candidates, who were as likely to criticize the president as each other.

Approval of Congress

Congress also appears to have experienced a slight rally effect from Hussein's capture, though the polls measuring approval of the legislature were not conducted as close to the event as those measuring presidential approval. From September through December (before the capture), the polls showed a slight majority of Americans disapproving of the job Congress was doing, but in mid-January, a bare plurality approved -- 48% to 45%. That represented a five-point gain in approval over the previous poll. However, the current poll shows the public's rating back to the previous levels, with 51% disapproving, and just 41% approving.

Approval of Congress Overall and Compared by Party Affiliation (Percentage Who Approve in Each Group)

Again, the Democrats gave the Republican-controlled Congress the largest rally after the capture of Hussein, with approval going from 22% to 32% -- a 10-point surge. Republicans and independents, by contrast, showed increases of just 5 points and 2 points, respectively.

General Satisfaction in the United States

One of Gallup's key measures of the political climate in the United States is the degree to which people are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. Though the question does not refer to politics, it is clear that the public perceives this matter through partisan lenses.

Satisfaction With Way Things Are Going in the U.S. Overall and Compared by Party Affiliation (Percentage in Each Group Who Are Satisfied)

In a pattern that is similar to the ratings of the president and Congress, Republicans are much more likely to be "satisfied" than are either independents or Democrats. The large gaps in ratings suggest how partisan the perceptions are. Republicans typically are more satisfied by 25 to 30 percentage points than are independents, and independents are about 20 to 25 points more satisfied than Democrats.

Unlike the approval ratings of Congress and the president, however, all the trend lines in satisfaction among the three partisan groups are about parallel. These results suggest that despite the large differences in absolute ratings, the three groups react similarly to current events. The ratings before and after the capture of Hussein, for example, show a seven-point increase among Republicans, and six-point increases among both independents and Democrats.

The fact that the overall satisfaction level is below 50% is significant for the Bush re-election effort. If by November more than half the population remains dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, it will be difficult for the president to obtain a majority of the vote.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-12, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

3. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?