A Kerry "Buzz Saw" on Super Tuesday?

North Carolina Sen. John Edwards differentiates himself from Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry by emphasizing his background of poverty, growing up poor as the son of a mill worker in South Carolina. According to Edwards, this makes him especially able to identify with lower- and middle-class Americans, unlike other (unnamed) candidates (but feel free to think of the Massachusetts senator) who have never felt the pain of poverty. 

The exit polls in Iowa suggest that Edwards' argument is most persuasive to ... the rich. Lower-income voters give substantially more support to the blueblood Kerry, while high-income voters give equal or slightly more support to Edwards.

Kerry beat Edwards in Wisconsin by a six-point margin overall, 40% to 34%. But the exit poll shows a 28-point margin for Kerry in the lowest income category (less than $15,000 a year) and a 13-point margin in the second-lowest category ($15,000 to $30,000). Edwards beats or ties Kerry only in the two highest income groups.

That's just one of the insights provided by the exit polls this campaign season. But there are others. Last week, Gary Langer, director of polling operations at ABC News, spoke to members of the New York chapter of AAPOR (the American Association for Public Opinion Research) about the insights the exit polls provide for what might happen today on Super Tuesday. His conclusion: Kerry's campaign will be like a "buzz saw," demolishing Edwards' hopes for the nomination.

Langer bases his prediction on exit poll results showing Edwards doing relatively better among white voters than among blacks and minorities, and also doing better among independents and Republicans than among Democrats. Super Tuesday, Langer predicts, will include large numbers of minority voters and relatively few Republicans and independents -- making the electoral terrain much more favorable for the front-runner than the challenger. 

Minorities Prefer Kerry

Two weeks ago, in the Wisconsin primary, Edwards and Kerry each got 37% of the white vote, but Kerry beat Edwards by 50% to 17% among minorities (55% to 15% among just blacks). In Tennessee and Virginia, Kerry beat Edwards by 9 points and 15 points, respectively, among white voters, but by 32 points and 40 points, respectively, among minority voters.

This pattern is found in all of the states where there are at least modest numbers of minorities. Even in South Carolina, where Edwards was born and the only state where he came in first, Edwards beat Kerry by 25 points among whites, but just 4 points among minorities.

If history is a guide, says Langer (basing his projections on the 2000 primary exit polls), minority turnout on Super Tuesday is likely to be high (more than a third of the electorate) in the two biggest states, California and New York, and in Georgia and Maryland as well. In Connecticut and Ohio, minorities are likely to constitute about a fifth of the electorate.   

Just 12% of the electorate is likely to be minorities in Massachusetts, says Langer, but that is Kerry's home state. Langer points out that even fewer minorities will vote in Rhode Island and Vermont. But again, those states are in New England, where Edwards is not expected to do well in any case.

Independents and Republicans Favor Edwards

In the 10 primary contests for which there are exit poll data, the results show a consistent pattern in which Edwards does relatively better among Republicans and independents than among Democrats.

• Of the seven primary contests in which Republicans voted (some states do not allow Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries), Edwards beat Kerry in six, by margins that ranged from 6 points (Tennessee) to 38 points (South Carolina). 
• Among the 10 primary contests in which independents voted, Edwards beat Kerry in four, came close in one, and lost in five. 
• In the same 10 states, Kerry beat Edwards among Democrats in eight, tied in one (Oklahoma) and lost in one (South Carolina).

According to Langer, relatively few independents and almost no Republicans are likely to vote in the Super Tuesday primaries. Based on 2000, only 1% to 4% of each state's electorate is likely to be Republican. In six of the primaries, independents are likely to constitute only 13% to 21% of the electorate. The three remaining primary states with larger proportions of independents are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont, but they are all in Kerry country and are not likely to help Edwards.

Bottom line, says Langer: Kerry will win big on Super Tuesday. 

What about next week, with four Southern primaries in Florida, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi? There the electoral terrain is even less inviting, Langer says, despite the geography. Many more minorities, and considerably fewer independents and Republicans, will vote. If Edwards pushes his campaign to next week, he is not likely to fare any better in those Southern states than he did in Tennessee and Virginia, or than he is expected to do on Super Tuesday.

Caveat: These predictions assume subgroups of voters in one state will vote very similarly to the same subgroups in another state. The assumption is not unreasonable, but neither is it 100% certain. Predictions are often fraught with faulty assumptions.