Obama’s surge appears to have peaked
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's lead over John McCain, having reached a nine percentage point margin a few days ago, has been reduced for the second Gallup report in a row, and is now at a 6-point, 47% to 41%, margin among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 26-28.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking showed Obama gaining ground over McCain at the end of last week near the culmination of Obama's highly visible foreign tour. That "bounce" seems to be ebbing now, and the current evidence suggests that Obama has not been able to maintain or expand his 9-point lead as measured in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for July 24-26 -- at least in the short-term. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Obama has generally led McCain by a consistent, but small, margin for much of the summer. There have been the expected daily fluctuations in the size of that margin, including Obama's recent gain, but nothing so far to suggest any lasting disruption in the structure of the race. -- Frank Newport
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from July 26-28, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,668 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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