Kerry Maintains Small Lead, Bush Approval at 49%

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of American voters finds Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leading President George W. Bush among registered voters 50% to 45%, and among likely voters by 52% to 44%.

When Ralph Nader is included in the hypothetical matchup, the consumer activist takes votes away from Kerry, but not from Bush. Among registered voters, Kerry receives 47% support, Bush 45%, and Nader 5% -- a three-point decline for Kerry with Nader in the race, but no decline for Bush.

Support for Candidates Among Registered Voters Compared by Whether Nader Is Included

Among likely voters, Kerry gets 50% support, Bush 44%, and Nader just 2% -- a two-point decline for Kerry, no decline for Bush.

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters Compared by Whether Nader Is Included

The "likely voter" model suggests that Nader will draw far less support among people who actually turn out to vote than among the larger population of registered voters nationwide. Indeed, younger voters and political independents were among the groups most likely to support Nader in 2000, as well as among the groups with the lowest turnout rates. The net impact, however, is the same for likely voters as for registered voters -- Nader's candidacy subtracts from support Kerry would otherwise receive.

The poll results show a slight decline in support for Kerry among likely voters from the last poll, Feb. 16-17, when Kerry led Bush by 55% to 43%. Among registered voters, the margin is unchanged.

Bush vs. Kerry Among Likely Voters

The major change in likely voter sentiment came after the Iowa caucuses, where Kerry emerged the victor. Just before that, in the Jan. 9-11 poll, likely voters gave Bush a 12-point margin. Since then, Kerry has either tied Bush or led in the race for president.

Certainty of Vote

Although eight months remain until the election, most voters indicate they are certain about whom they will support. Among registered voters, 76% are certain -- 40% for Kerry and 36% for Bush. Among likely voters, an even higher 83% say they will not change their minds -- with 45% voting for Kerry and 38% for Bush.

Certainty of Vote Among Likely Voters

Among likely voters, this leaves about one in six voters who say they have yet to make a firm decision. Tens of millions of dollars will be spent by the two campaigns and other groups in an effort to persuade the as yet unpersuaded.

Red, Blue, and Purple States

A comparison of support for the two candidates by the results of the 2000 election show that among likely voters, Bush is barely ahead in the states he won four years ago by more than five percentage points (which Gallup calls "red" states). He leads Kerry by just 50% to 47%. In the "blue" states, which former Vice President Al Gore won by margins of more than five percentage points, Kerry leads Bush by a substantial margin, 55% to 42%. In "purple" states -- where the margin of victory for either candidate in 2000 was five percentage points or less -- Kerry also leads by a substantial margin, 55% to 39%.

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters Compared by States Won in 2000 (Nader not included)

With Nader in the race, the picture changes only a little. In the red states, Bush leads among likely voters by six points, 51% to 45%, but he trails badly in the purple states (52% for Kerry, 39% Bush, 4% Nader) and in the blue states (55% Kerry, 43% Bush, 1% Nader).

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters Compared by States Won in 2000 (Nader included)

Bush Approval Rating

Bush's close showing with Kerry in the presidential race mirrors the public's approval rating of the president: 49% say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, while 48% say they disapprove.

George W. Bush’s Job Approval Rating

Last November, Bush's approval had slipped to just above its current level. But after his Thanksgiving visit to Iraq, followed shortly thereafter by the capture of Saddam Hussein, public approval jumped 13 points. With the intensified campaigning in the Iowa caucuses, as Democratic candidates vigorously criticized the president, Bush's approval took a nosedive, reaching the lowest levels of his presidency.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 5-7, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 570 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 892 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

3. Are you certain now that you will vote for [John Kerry/George W. Bush] for president next fall, or do you think you may change your mind between now and the November election?

4. Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

4A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?