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Kerry Maintains Small Lead, Bush Approval at 49%

Kerry Maintains Small Lead, Bush Approval at 49%

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of American voters finds Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leading President George W. Bush among registered voters 50% to 45%, and among likely voters by 52% to 44%.

When Ralph Nader is included in the hypothetical matchup, the consumer activist takes votes away from Kerry, but not from Bush. Among registered voters, Kerry receives 47% support, Bush 45%, and Nader 5% -- a three-point decline for Kerry with Nader in the race, but no decline for Bush.

Support for Candidates
Among Registered Voters
Compared by Whether Nader Is Included

Among likely voters, Kerry gets 50% support, Bush 44%, and Nader just 2% -- a two-point decline for Kerry, no decline for Bush.

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters
Compared by Whether Nader Is Included

The "likely voter" model suggests that Nader will draw far less support among people who actually turn out to vote than among the larger population of registered voters nationwide. Indeed, younger voters and political independents were among the groups most likely to support Nader in 2000, as well as among the groups with the lowest turnout rates. The net impact, however, is the same for likely voters as for registered voters -- Nader's candidacy subtracts from support Kerry would otherwise receive.

The poll results show a slight decline in support for Kerry among likely voters from the last poll, Feb. 16-17, when Kerry led Bush by 55% to 43%. Among registered voters, the margin is unchanged.

Bush vs. Kerry
Among Likely Voters

The major change in likely voter sentiment came after the Iowa caucuses, where Kerry emerged the victor. Just before that, in the Jan. 9-11 poll, likely voters gave Bush a 12-point margin. Since then, Kerry has either tied Bush or led in the race for president.

Certainty of Vote

Although eight months remain until the election, most voters indicate they are certain about whom they will support. Among registered voters, 76% are certain -- 40% for Kerry and 36% for Bush. Among likely voters, an even higher 83% say they will not change their minds -- with 45% voting for Kerry and 38% for Bush.

Certainty of Vote
Among Likely Voters

Among likely voters, this leaves about one in six voters who say they have yet to make a firm decision. Tens of millions of dollars will be spent by the two campaigns and other groups in an effort to persuade the as yet unpersuaded.

Red, Blue, and Purple States

A comparison of support for the two candidates by the results of the 2000 election show that among likely voters, Bush is barely ahead in the states he won four years ago by more than five percentage points (which Gallup calls "red" states). He leads Kerry by just 50% to 47%. In the "blue" states, which former Vice President Al Gore won by margins of more than five percentage points, Kerry leads Bush by a substantial margin, 55% to 42%. In "purple" states -- where the margin of victory for either candidate in 2000 was five percentage points or less -- Kerry also leads by a substantial margin, 55% to 39%.

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters
Compared by States Won in 2000
(Nader not included)

With Nader in the race, the picture changes only a little. In the red states, Bush leads among likely voters by six points, 51% to 45%, but he trails badly in the purple states (52% for Kerry, 39% Bush, 4% Nader) and in the blue states (55% Kerry, 43% Bush, 1% Nader).

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters
Compared by States Won in 2000
(Nader included)

Bush Approval Rating

Bush's close showing with Kerry in the presidential race mirrors the public's approval rating of the president: 49% say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, while 48% say they disapprove.

George W. Bush’s Job Approval Rating

Last November, Bush's approval had slipped to just above its current level. But after his Thanksgiving visit to Iraq, followed shortly thereafter by the capture of Saddam Hussein, public approval jumped 13 points. With the intensified campaigning in the Iowa caucuses, as Democratic candidates vigorously criticized the president, Bush's approval took a nosedive, reaching the lowest levels of his presidency.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 5-7, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 570 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 892 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

 


Kerry


Bush

NEITHER (vol.)

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

Likely Voters

2004 Mar 5-7

52

44

2

1

1

2004 Feb 16-17

55

43

1

*

1

2004 Feb 6-8

48

49

1

*

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

53

46

*

--

1

2004 Jan 9-11

43

55

1

*

1

Registered Voters

2004 Mar 5-7

50

45

2

1

2

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

2

*

1

2004 Feb 6-8

49

48

1

*

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

51

46

1

--

2

2004 Jan 9-11

40

57

2

--

1

2003 Nov 10-12

46

52

1

--

1

2003 Sep 19-21

48

47

2

1

2

National Adults

2004 Mar 5-7

50

45

3

*

2

2004 Feb 16-17

51

44

3

*

2

2004 Feb 6-8

48

48

2

*

2

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

52

44

2

--

2

2004 Jan 9-11

40

57

2

--

1

2003 Nov 10-12

44

53

1

--

2

2003 Sep 19-21

47

48

2

1

2

* Less than 0.5%

(vol.) Volunteered response



3. Are you certain now that you will vote for [John Kerry/George W. Bush] for president next fall, or do you think you may change your mind between now and the November election?

 



Vote for Kerry, certain

Vote for Kerry, may change mind

Vote for Bush, may change mind



Vote for Bush,
certain




No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

Likely Voters

2004 Mar 5-7

45

7

6

38

4

Registered Voters

2004 Mar 5-7

40

10

9

36

5

National Adults

2004 Mar 5-7

39

11

10

35

5



4. Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

4A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

 


Kerry


Bush


Nader

NONE (vol.)

OTHER
(vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

Likely Voters

2004 Mar 5-7

50

44

2

1

1

2

Registered Voters

2004 Mar 5-7

47

45

5

1

*

2

National Adults

2004 Mar 5-7

47

44

5

1

1

2

* Less than 0.5%

(vol.) Volunteered response



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

 

 

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

%

%

%

2004 Mar 5-7

49

48

3

2004 Feb 16-17

51

46

3

2004 Feb 9-12

51

46

3

2004 Feb 6-8

52

44

4

2004 Jan 29-Feb 1

49

48

3

2004 Jan 12-15

53

44

3

2004 Jan 9-11

59

38

3

2004 Jan 2-5

60

35

5

2003 Dec 15-16

63

34

3

2003 Dec 11-14

56

41

3

2003 Dec 5-7

55

43

2

2003 Nov 14-16

50

47

3

2003 Nov 10-12

51

45

4

2003 Nov 3-5

54

43

3

2003 Oct 24-26

53

42

5

2003 Oct 10-12

56

40

4

2003 Oct 6-8

55

42

3

2003 Sep 19-21

50

47

3

2003 Sep 8-10

52

43

5

2003 Aug 25-26

59

37

4

2003 Aug 4-6

60

36

4

2003 Jul 25-27

58

38

4

2003 Jul 18-20

59

38

3

2003 Jul 7-9

62

34

4

2003 Jun 27-29

61

36

3

2003 Jun 12-15

63

33

4

2003 Jun 9-10

62

34

4

2003 May 30-Jun 1

64

32

4

2003 May 19-21

66

30

4

2003 May 5-7

69

28

3

2003 Apr 22-23

70

26

4

2003 Apr 14-16

71

24

5

2003 Apr 7-9

69

26

5

2003 Apr 5-6

70

27

3

2003 Mar 29-30

71

26

3

2003 Mar 24-25

69

27

4

2003 Mar 22-23

71

25

4

2003 Mar 14-15

58

38

4

2003 Mar 3-5

57

37

6

2003 Feb 24-26

57

37

6

2003 Feb 17-19

58

37

5

2003 Feb 7-9

61

34

5

2003 Feb 3-6

59

35

6

2003 Jan 31-Feb 2

61

35

4

2003 Jan 23-25

60

36

4

2003 Jan 20-22

58

36

6

2003 Jan 13-16

61

34

5

2003 Jan 10-12

58

37

5

2003 Jan 3-5

63

32

5

2002 Dec 19-22

61

32

7

2002 Dec 16-17

63

33

4

2002 Dec 9-10

63

32

5

2002 Dec 5-8

64

29

7

2002 Nov 22-24

65

28

7

2002 Nov 11-14

66

26

8

2002 Nov 8-10

68

27

5

2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

63

29

8

2002 Oct 21-22

67

28

5

2002 Oct 14-17

62

31

7

2002 Oct 3-6

67

28

5

2002 Sep 23-26

68

26

6

2002 Sep 20-22

66

30

4

2002 Sep 13-16

70

26

4

2002 Sep 5-8

66

30

4

2002 Sep 2-4

66

29

5

2002 Aug 19-21

65

28

7

2002 Aug 5-8

68

26

6

2002 Jul 29-31

71

23

6

2002 Jul 26-28

69

26

5

2002 Jul 22-24

69

24

7

2002 Jul 9-11

73

21

6

2002 Jul 5-8

76

18

6

2002 Jun 28-30

76

19

5

2002 Jun 21-23

73

21

6

2002 Jun 17-19

74

20

6

2002 Jun 7-8

74

18

8

2002 Jun 3-6

70

23

7

2002 May 28-29

77

17

6

2002 May 20-22

76

17

7

2002 May 6-9

76

19

5

2002 Apr 29-May 1

77

20

3

2002 Apr 22-24

77

17

6

2002 Apr 8-11

75

20

5

2002 Apr 5-7

76

19

5

2002 Mar 22-24

79

17

4

2002 Mar 18-20

79

16

5

2002 Mar 8-9

80

14

6

2002 Mar 4-7

77

18

5

2002 Mar 1-3

81

14

5

2002 Feb 8-10

82

14

4

2002 Feb 4-6

82

14

4

2002 Jan 25-27

84

13

3

2002 Jan 11-14

83

13

4

2002 Jan 7-9

84

12

4

2001 Dec 14-16

86

11

3

2001 Dec 6-9

86

10

4

2001 Nov 26-27

87

8

5

2001 Nov 8-11

87

9

4

2001 Nov 2-4

87

9

4

2001 Oct 19-21

88

9

3

2001 Oct 11-14

89

8

3

2001 Oct 5-6

87

10

3

2001 Sep 21-22

90

6

4

2001 Sep 14-15

86

10

4

2001 Sep 7-10

51

39

10

2001 Aug 24-26

55

36

9

2001 Aug 16-19

57

34

9

2001 Aug 10-12

57

35

8

2001 Aug 3-5

55

35

10

2001 Jul 19-22

56

33

11

2001 Jul 10-11

57

35

8

2001 Jun 28-Jul 1

52

34

14

2001 Jun 11-17

55

33

12

2001 Jun 8-10

55

35

10

2001 May 18-20

56

36

8

2001 May 10-14

56

31

13

2001 May 7-9

53

33

14

2001 Apr 20-22

62

29

9

2001 Apr 6-8

59

30

11

2001 Mar 26-28

53

29

18

2001 Mar 9-11

58

29

13

2001 Mar 5-7

63

22

15

2001 Feb 19-21

62

21

17

2001 Feb 9-11

57

25

18

2001 Feb 1-4

57

25

18




Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/10942/kerry-maintains-small-lead-bush-approval-49.aspx
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