Kerry Comes Down Off the Slopes
Massachusetts senator and likely Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry returns this week from a short vacation at his home in Ketchum, Idaho, and will take part in a "Democrats United Dinner" in Washington, D.C. At the dinner, Kerry, former presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, and many other Democratic luminaries will focus on their task of unseating President George W. Bush in the fall election.
At the moment, Gallup Poll data suggest that Republicans are actually slightly more in need of unification than Democrats are. Democrats are more highly represented in Gallup's pool of likely voters than they are among all national adults. (The likely voter pool consists of 40% Democrats, compared with only 35% Democrats in the national sample of all adults.) And according to Gallup's March 5-7 poll, 69% of Democrats have a great deal of interest in the upcoming election, compared with 65% of Republicans and 53% of independents.
It's important to note that polling in this election is not quite as simple as it might seem. For one thing, trial heats that include independent candidate Ralph Nader produce somewhat different results from those that do not. In general, Nader's inclusion results in a slightly better showing for Bush as compared to Kerry. Among registered voters in this past weekend's Newsweek poll, for example, Kerry and Bush are tied at 48% each without Nader in the picture, while Bush moves to a three-point lead with Nader included. (Nader receives 5% of the projected vote among registered voters.)
Bush Approval
There is little question that when an incumbent president seeks re-election, his job approval rating becomes one of the most important indicators of the potential election outcome. Bush's latest Gallup Poll job approval rating is 50%, and a series of polls conducted in recent weeks by other organizations confirm that his rating is within a point or two of this mark (Newsweek, March 18-19, 48%; CBS News/New York Times, March 10-14, 51%).
In many ways, these ratings suggest that Bush couldn't be more on the edge in terms of his re-election prospects than he is now. Every presidential incumbent who has won re-election since 1950 has had a job approval rating above 50% in the months leading up to Election Day. In fact, each incumbent had an approval rating at least slightly above 50% in March in their election year. Bush is, in other words, running at least slightly below the curve.
There is a great deal that can, and no doubt will, happen between now and Nov. 2, including in particular the projected turnover of power in Iraq at the end of June. It is reasonable to assume that Bush's job approval rating, which so far in his term has ranged between 49% and 90%, will change further. A sustained movement above 50% in the months ahead will obviously be good news for the president, while a drift downward will be a sign of real trouble.
Battleground States
The 2000 election reinforced to Americans just how important individual states are in American presidential elections, which are won or lost based on a candidate gaining a majority of electoral votes, rather than a majority of the national popular vote.
This electoral process has received a great deal of criticism over the years, and a series of Gallup Poll questions have repeatedly demonstrated that the public, given a choice, would prefer to abandon the constitutionally mandated system and revert to a pure popular vote. For example, a Gallup Poll conducted in December 2000 found that 59% of Americans wanted to amend the Constitution so the candidate who receives the most total votes nationwide wins the election, while 37% wanted to keep the current system, in which the candidate who wins the most votes in the Electoral College wins the election.
But for this year at any rate, the Electoral College system is still the law of the land, and likely will remain so. This reality has focused a great deal of attention on the so-called "battleground states," which political experts claim are so divided that they conceivably could end up going for either candidate.
Most of the money spent on Bush's election ads so far this year has gone into a set of about 17 states, and it is clear that most of the intensive campaigning by both candidates will take place only in battleground states. Such assuredly Democratic states as Massachusetts, and such assuredly Republican states as Utah, are not going to see a lot of extensive campaign activity.
Gallup researchers separated the March 5-7 responses from the battleground states (those in which neither Bush nor Gore won by more than five percentage points in the 2000 election), and compared them with responses from the so-called "red" states (strong GOP) and strong "blue" states (strong Democratic). Here's what we found:
- Bush approval in the battleground states is 48%, compared with 60% in red states and 41% in blue states.
- The percentage of respondents in the battleground states who say the war in Iraq was worth fighting is 55%, compared with 57% in the red states and 52% in the blue states.
There are also slight differences among these three groups in terms of perceived economic outlook. In the battleground states, 45% say economic conditions are getting better, while 49% say they are getting worse. In the red states, 48% say conditions are getting better, while 41% say they are getting worse. In the blue states, 40% say economic conditions are getting better, while 54% say they are getting worse.
The Economy, Stupid?
In the most general sense, Americans have once again become quite negative when asked to speculate on the direction of the U.S. economy. Economic optimism reached a recent nadir just before the Iraq war began in March 2003, when two-thirds of the public said that economic conditions were getting worse.
Then the public became more positive. By early 2004, 66% of Americans said the economy was getting better, and only 27% said it was getting worse. But the tide turned. Perceptions have become more negative with each poll we've taken this year. In the latest March 8-11 Gallup survey, the public's economic optimism has returned to net negative territory, with 47% saying things are getting worse and only 44% saying they are getting better. That's quite a turnaround in the space of a little over two months -- from a net positive rating of 39% to a net negative rating of 3%.
Additionally, the UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism for March, released Monday, shows that investors' attitudes toward the economy are also more negative. The Index has fallen 23 points over the past two months -- down 12 points in March after declining 11 points in February. The overall Index now stands at 85.
It's clear that a good deal of the drop in economic confidence reflects the less-than-glowing news coverage of the economy. The stock market has been down. News reports have focused on the problem of outsourcing and the lack of growth in jobs. And there's been the virtually non-stop focus on the Democratic primary race and the candidates' (not unexpected) criticism of the state of the current economy.
Just because the media may be influencing people's views on the economy doesn't mean that their perceptions aren't "real." Social psychologist W.I. Thomas once said that if people define a situation as real, the consequences will be real. In other words, it may not matter why people are discouraged about the economy, because people will operate on that negative assumption in their personal and political lives. That may not be good news for retail spending, or for Bush.
Most Important Problem
What will be the most important problem in the nation 25 years from now? A recent Gallup Poll shows that Americans don't believe the main issues will be international; only 4% mention terrorism and 4% mention war. The problems that the public is convinced will be the most bedeviling in a quarter century (that is, in the year 2029) are domestic: the economy (12%), Social Security (11%), unemployment (7%), and healthcare (6%). The environment, at 8%, is the only other problem to intrude into the list, but this percentage is lower than it has been in previous Gallup surveys including this question.
Pledge of Allegiance
On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will take up the case of an avowed atheist in California who contends that public schools should not be allowed to lead students in the Pledge of Allegiance, which includes the words "under God." The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in California upheld a decision agreeing with Michael Newdow, the man who filed the suit, and the issue is likely to generate significant attention for its great symbolic value. The Bush administration has already filed a brief in support of the school district that Newdow originally sued.
The feelings of the American public on this issue are clear. The Gallup Poll asked Americans in June 2002 if they agreed or disagreed with the federal appeal court's decision that it is unconstitutional for the Pledge of Allegiance to be said in public school classrooms because it contains the words "under God." Eighty-four percent disagreed with that court's decision, and only 14% agreed.
Passion
An article in last week's New York Times reported that Hollywood executives, noting the huge box office grosses of the "The Passion of the Christ," are now contemplating more religiously themed movies. Strong U.S. interest in religious movies? As the kids would say, this is a big "duh."
Gallup Poll data suggest why "The Passion" has done so well -- the United States is an intensely religious and highly Christian nation. Last year, more than 6 in 10 Americans indicated that they attend church on a semi-regular basis. About that same number say that religion is very important in their lives. And most importantly, more than 8 in 10 American adults identify with a Christian religion of one sort or another, including about a quarter who are Roman Catholic and another 49% who are members of an identifiable Protestant denomination.
Additionally, Gallup's March 5-7 poll found that a majority of Americans have either seen "The Passion of the Christ" or want to see it. Of those who have seen the movie, the reviews are overwhelmingly positive, and a substantial majority say that their own personal religious faith has been strengthened by the movie.