Little Change in Presidential Contest

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite a spate of high-profile political events in the past week and a half -- President George W. Bush's nationally televised press conference, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice's testimony before the 9/11 commission, and media appearances by Richard Clarke, the author of a new book criticizing the Bush administration for its handling of the war on terrorism -- a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds little change in the presidential contest. Among likely voters, Bush continues to enjoy a slight lead over Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, as he has since the end of March. Also, Bush's job approval rating as well as the favorable ratings of both Bush and Kerry are all essentially the same as they were three weeks ago.

The poll, conducted April 16-18, shows Bush leading Kerry among likely voters, 51% to 46%. In an April 5-8 poll, Bush's lead was three points, while he had a four-point lead in a March 26-28 poll. In the past three weeks, the figures have fluctuated within a small range, suggesting no real change in the preferences of American voters over that time.

Presidential Preference Among Likely Voters (Nader not included)

The same conclusion can be drawn by looking at the results of a voting choice question that includes independent Ralph Nader. In the current poll, Bush leads Kerry by six points, 50% to 44%. In the early April poll, Bush led by four points, as he did in the poll at the end of March.

Presidential Preference Among Likely Voters (Nader included)

An analysis of vote preferences by how people voted in 2000 shows that Bush leads 62% to 33% in the "red" states (where he won in 2000 by more than five percentage points), but trails 57% to 41% in the "blue" states (won by former Vice President Al Gore by more than five percentage points). In the "purple" or competitive states (where the margins of victory were five percentage points or less), Bush and Kerry are tied at 49% of the vote each.

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters Compared by States Won in 2000 (Nader not included)

April 16-18, 2004

When Nader is included in the matchup, Bush receives 47% of the vote in the competitive states, Kerry 45%, and Nader 6%. These results suggest that Nader's candidacy is more likely to hurt Kerry's chances of winning the election than Bush's chances.

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters Compared by States Won in 2000 (Nader included)

April 16-18, 2004

Approval and Favorable Ratings Remain Steady

Another indication that little has changed politically in the past three weeks is that Bush's job rating has remained in the low 50% range, and his and Kerry's favorable ratings are essentially unchanged as well.

Bush's approval has fluctuated within a narrow range since the middle of January, from a low of 49% to a high of 53%, suggesting no significant change in the public's evaluation of the job Bush is doing over this three-month period.

Bush Approval Ratings -- 2004

Similarly, Bush's favorable rating has remained within a narrow range during that period, from a low of 52% (at the end of January) to the 56% to 57% level where it is now.

Favorability Ratings of Bush and Kerry

When Kerry first emerged as a leading candidate for the Democratic nomination in late January, his favorable rating was at 61%. But as the Bush re-election campaign criticized Kerry, the senator's rating slipped. Today, at 54%, it is just about the same as Bush's rating (56%). Kerry's unfavorable rating moved up at the end of March, coincident with an effort by the Bush campaign to define Kerry negatively through speeches and advertisements. Since that time, Kerry's unfavorable rating has remained the same.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 16-18, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 767 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

3. Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat, Bush, the Republican,(or) Nader, the independent]?

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

6. Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. First, ... How about... [ITEM A READ FIRST, THEN ITEMS B-D ROTATED, ITEM E READ LAST]

A. George W. Bush

Q.6 CONTINUED

B. John Kerry