GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- New CNN/USA Today/Gallup surveys in three states won by President George W. Bush in 2000 all show close races. The president leads Sen. John Kerry by three to four percentage points in Florida, the two candidates are tied in Missouri, and Bush trails Kerry by five to six points in Ohio. In all three states, the economy is the most important issue among four measured in the polls, which also included Iraq, terrorism, and healthcare.
The polls were all conducted July 19-22, and include from 775 to 869 registered voters per state, with 636 to 699 likely voters. The results in each state are as follows:
- Ohio -- Kerry leads Bush by 51% to 45% among likely voters in a
two-way contest, and by 48% to 43% in a three-way matchup that
includes independent Ralph Nader.
- Missouri -- A dead heat, whether Nader is in the race or not.
There is a 48%-48% tie in the two-way, and a 47%-47% tie in the
three-way, race.
- Florida -- Bush leads by 50% to 47% in a two-way contest, and by 50% to 46% if Nader is included.
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?
|
Likely Voters |
||||||
|
Two-Way Race |
Three-Way Race |
|||||
|
2004 Jul 19-22 |
Florida ^ |
Missouri |
Ohio |
Florida ^ |
Missouri |
Ohio |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
John Kerry and John Edwards (D) |
47 |
48 |
51 |
46 |
47 |
48 |
|
George W. Bush and Dick Cheney (R) |
50 |
48 |
45 |
50 |
47 |
43 |
|
Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo (I) |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
3 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Neither/other/no opinion |
3 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
Two-Way Race |
Three-Way Race |
||||||
|
2004 Jul 19-22 |
Florida ^ |
Missouri |
Ohio |
Florida ^ |
Missouri |
Ohio |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
John Kerry and John Edwards (D) |
45 |
48 |
49 |
44 |
47 |
47 |
|
|
George W. Bush and Dick Cheney (R) |
49 |
46 |
44 |
49 |
44 |
42 |
|
|
Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo (I) |
-- |
-- |
-- |
2 |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Neither/other/no opinion |
6 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
^ |
NOTE: In Florida, the three-way ballot was asked first of all respondents. Nader voters only were then asked whom they would vote for if Nader were not on the ballot to figure the two-way ballot in that state. |
||||||
There is little difference between the results based on registered voters and the results based on a subset of likely voters, so identified by Gallup because of their past voting behavior and interest in the election.
Similar to voters in the rest of the country, voters in these three states have mostly made up their minds and do not expect to change them before Election Day. About 80% to 85% in each state say there is no chance they would vote for the other major party's candidate.
The three states are also similar to each other in the issues that voters deem to be most important to their vote preferences. The economy ranks in first in all three states, while terrorism is a clear second in Florida. In Missouri and Ohio, voters see terrorism, Iraq, and healthcare as about equally important issues.
If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president this year -- [ROTATED: the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq, (or) healthcare]?
|
Likely Voters |
|||
|
2004 Jul 19-22 |
Florida |
Missouri |
Ohio |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
The economy |
27 |
28 |
29 |
|
Terrorism |
24 |
20 |
20 |
|
The situation in Iraq |
16 |
20 |
19 |
|
Healthcare |
16 |
17 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
All equally (vol.) |
14 |
10 |
11 |
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
None/no opinion |
2 |
3 |
* |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
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Nevertheless, there are major differences in how citizens rate their states' economies.
-
Ohio has the lowest rating among its likely voters -- 36% say the economy in their state is excellent or good, while 27% say it is poor. The net economic score is +9 percentage points.
-
By contrast, Missouri's net economic score is +26 percentage points -- with 41% who rate the economy in that state as excellent or good and 15% poor.
-
Florida voters are most positive. More than half, 54%, rate the economy in their state as excellent or good, just 12% as poor -- for a net economic score of +42 percentage points.
History shows that an incumbent president's chances of being re-elected are highly related to voters' perceptions of the economy. The economic ratings of the three states seem to reinforce this point: Bush does worst where the economic rating is lowest (Ohio) and best where the economic rating is most positive (Florida).
The last presidential race was so close that if Bush loses only one large state in 2004 that he won in 2000, and Kerry wins all of the states that former Vice President Al Gore won, Kerry will win the presidency. That makes the Kerry lead in Ohio particularly significant. If that state goes Democratic this year and there are no other states that switch in either direction, Kerry would win the election with 280 electoral votes to 258 for Bush.
However, polls in other "showdown" states -- where either Bush or Gore won by five percentage points or less -- show very competitive races. The overall contest remains too close to call.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 869 registered voters in Florida, aged 18 and older, conducted July 19-22, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Results for likely voters in Florida are based on the subsample of 699 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 presidential election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Florida, turnout is assumed to be 50% of the voting-age population.
Approximately 3% of all interviews in Florida were conducted in Spanish.
Results are based on telephone interviews with 798 registered voters in Missouri, aged 18 and older, conducted July 19-22, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
Results for likely voters in Missouri are based on the subsample of 636 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 presidential election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Missouri, turnout is assumed to be 55% of the voting-age population.
Results are based on telephone interviews with 775 registered voters in Ohio, aged 18 and older, conducted July 19-22, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Results for likely voters in Ohio are based on the subsample of 639 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 presidential election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Ohio, turnout is assumed to be 55% of the voting-age population.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.