Over the last several days, hundreds of commentators have attempted to summarize the essence of the Democratic convention. What would you say is the defining sense of the election so far -- from the public's perspective?
One of the most important findings we have picked up from our analysis of public opinion data is the sense of importance the public is placing on this election. Americans are paying more attention at this relatively early stage than in previous elections, and 60% of registered voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual. These findings suggest that ratings for the convention coverage this year may be higher than usual, and they certainly suggest that the Democrats may have a greater-than-usual opportunity to make their case to the public.
Does this high interest translate into people making up their minds earlier?
Yes. All of the data I have reviewed suggest that there are fewer swing voters this year than normal. In Gallup's pre-convention poll conducted July 19-21, we asked both John Kerry and George Bush voters if there was any chance they might vote for the other candidate. Only 6% of Kerry voters and 7% of Bush voters said yes. Factoring in the 4% of voters who are undecided and don't lean toward one candidate or the other, only 17% of likely voters (and 23% of registered voters) admit they are open to changing their minds.
So both parties are playing to a small group of people?
Yes. That's the evolving conventional wisdom. To a large degree, the entire election is being played out in the attempt to influence a quite small group of voters who are susceptible to campaign blandishments.
Core (or base) voters are still important, of course, because of turnout considerations. Both candidates need to generate enthusiasm and motivation among their hard-core voters to ensure that they go to the polls. This means that Kerry, for example, will continue to focus on blacks, who are overwhelmingly Democratic in their voting intentions, and Bush will continue to focus on white evangelical Protestants, who vote strongly Republican.
Are there more swing voters in swing states?
Interestingly, there are no more undecided voters in the swing states than in other states. A recent Gallup analysis shows that the percentage of undecided voters in the 16 "showdown" states (states in which the margin of victory for either Bush or Al Gore was no more than five percentage points in 2000) is virtually the same as the percentage of undecided voters in the strong Republican and strong Democratic states.
In other words, although the voting sentiment is closely divided between the two parties within swing states, there is no concomitantly larger number of undecided voters.
Where do some of the key swing states stand at the moment?
New Gallup/CNN/USA Today polls in Ohio, Florida, and Missouri reflect some interesting patterns.
Bush is slightly ahead in Florida, but most certainly not outside the margin of error, suggesting that this showdown state -- so important in 2000 -- will again be close this year.
Missouri is dead even. Among likely voters, it's Bush 47% and Kerry 47%. That's potentially important because some observers have classified Missouri as tilting toward Bush. Not so, based on our data.
On the other hand, Kerry is ahead by a slightly more substantial margin in Ohio -- 48% for Kerry, 43% for Bush, and 5% for Ralph Nader among likely voters. History shows that in recent elections, Republicans who have won the national election have also won Ohio, so that's not good news for the Bush camp.
Will the state of the economy in swing states be a big factor this November?
Yes. Our polling in all three of these states shows that more voters choose the economy as the most important issue to their presidential vote than Iraq, terrorism, or healthcare.
Furthermore, voters currently rate the economy most positively in Florida, less so in Missouri, and least positively in Ohio. As noted, Bush is doing best in Florida and least well in Ohio -- suggesting that voters in states where the economy is perceived as doing poorly are most inclined to support a candidate other than Bush (Nader also does best in Ohio, it's worth noting).
Is the potential for a Kerry "bounce" after the Democratic convention larger or smaller than usual?
We've given this a lot of thought. On one hand, there is a case to be made that the potential for a large bounce coming out of the Democratic convention (or the Republican convention, for that matter) may be higher than usual. Why? Because the high levels of interest in the campaign suggest that voters are paying more attention to the conventions and may be more susceptible to the impact of the campaign messages.
Additionally, there is evidence from some polls that a significant percentage of Americans want to know more about Kerry -- meaning that they could be converted to his side if things go well for him at the convention.
And on the other hand…?
The close attention being paid to this election could also mean that people have already gotten a great deal of information about the candidates, and that what they learn at the conventions will have a more minimal impact. That there are fewer swing voters this year could also mean less of a bounce.
The broadcast networks are giving little prime-time coverage to the convention, but I'm not sure that will be a factor in the impact of the conventions, given the degree to which coverage will reach Americans though cable channels, local news coverage, print, and radio.
Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief campaign strategist, was quoted by the Los Angeles Times as saying: "The more important news is that President Bush's approval rating has steadily risen in the last two months. This is the more important underlying number." Is this a correct assessment of Bush's approval numbers?
It's unclear to what polls Dowd is referring. Bush's approval rating has, in fact, not changed much at all over the last two months. Almost exactly two months ago, in Gallup's May 21-23 poll, Bush's approval rating was 47%. Now it is 49%, statistically unchanged. In fact, over the last seven polls Gallup has conducted over the last three months, Bush's job approval rating has varied only within a three-point range -- between 46% and 49%. His May average was 47.33%. His June average was 48.5%. His July average -- so far -- has been 48%. This is hardly a steady increase.
Indeed, a new Gallup analysis shows that Bush's average approval rating for this last quarter (ending with Gallup's July 19-21 poll) is 47.9%, the worst of his administration.
In short, there is little sign of Bush momentum in the presidential job approval measure. Furthermore, it is quite possible that Bush approval may take a further hit after the Democratic convention.
Should we expect Bush to regain some of the ground he loses as a result of the Democratic convention?
Yes. There is little doubt that in August the Bush campaign will begin a major effort to whittle down Kerry's all-but-certain post-convention lead. As I've said before, one of the most important polls Gallup conducts this year will be after the Republican convention -- measuring the net impact of Kerry's convention, Bush's offensive during August, and the Republican convention.
All signs point to a higher election turnout this fall. To whose advantage would that be?
It's not absolutely certain that turnout this year will be higher than usual, but it's certainly a possibility given the high levels of interest we have seen so far. Generally speaking, our working assumption is that high turnout helps the Democratic candidate, given that the GOP base is likely to turn out regardless. But at this point, Gallup's modeling shows little difference between turnout assumptions of 50% and 55%, and only a minor difference if turnout gets as high as 60%.
Kerry will be emphasizing his military background and Vietnam service at the convention. Any indication of how effective this strategy will be?
Kerry's military service could be a modest plus. We reminded voters in Gallup's pre-convention July 19-21 poll about Kerry's military service in the Vietnam War and asked about its impact. The results show that 27% of likely voters say they are more likely to vote for Kerry as a result of his service, while 12% say they are less likely. (The rest say it makes no difference.)
Thirty-one percent of independents say that Kerry's military background makes them more likely to vote for him, suggesting that it may have some effect on those who are not already voting Democratic.
Is it important for Kerry to counter the Republican efforts to label him as a liberal and a "flipflopper"?
Yes. These are issues that are not playing well for Kerry at this point.
Asked which candidate "does not change his positions on issues for political reasons," voters choose Bush over Kerry by a 52% to 30% margin. Asked who is a "strong and decisive leader," voters choose Bush by a 54% to 37% margin.
Also, 46% of Americans identify Kerry as a liberal. That compares to the fact that only 20% of Americans in the same poll identified themselves as liberals.
Will last week's 9/11 Commission report hurt Bush politically?
Unlikely. There has been no diminution in the public's view of Bush's strength on handling terrorism, at least through last week. The latest Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll shows Bush has an 18-point lead over Kerry as the candidate best able to handle terrorism, and that percentage is basically unchanged over the last two months.
Furthermore, there has been no change in Bush's job approval or on his positioning vis-à-vis Kerry on the ballot.
There are several keys to determining the long-term impact of terrorism and/or the 9/11 Commission report on the election. First and foremost will be what happens in the real world. Needless to say, any new terrorist attack directly affecting the United States could have a major effect on the election. In fact, a majority of Americans are at least somewhat worried that there will be more terrorist attacks between now and Election Day.
Second is the effectiveness of Kerry's attempts at the convention this week to convince Americans that he can do as good a job as Bush in handling the terrorist threat. Third is the issue of what is done with the recommendations promulgated in the commission report. It appears that Bush will move quickly to take action on the recommendations, thus removing a potential political plus for Kerry -- who has already said he would implement the recommendations if elected.