"Values" Seen as Most Important Characteristic of Presidential Candidates

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Although the campaigns of President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry have attacked each other's candidates on various personal grounds -- for example, that Kerry is a "flip-flopper," or that Bush does not care about the needs of the average American -- the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey suggests many of those criticisms are falling on deaf ears. Only a few characteristics appear to correlate with voters' choices of a presidential candidate.

The survey, conducted July 19-21, just prior to the start of the Democratic National Convention, asked respondents to say whether each of nine characteristics applied more to Kerry or Bush. On five of the characteristics, close to the same percentage picked Kerry as Bush. On two characteristics, being a "strong and decisive leader," and not changing "his positions on issues for political reasons," Bush fares much better than Kerry -- by 17 and 24 percentage points, respectively.

The latter characteristic was designed to measure how successful the Bush campaign's efforts to characterize Kerry as a "flip-flopper" have been. The results suggest a great deal of success. Fifty-three percent of voters see Bush as more likely not to change positions for political reasons, while only 29% say that about Kerry.

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to John Kerry or more to George W. Bush. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

The results also suggest the Bush campaign has been successful in portraying the president as a strong and decisive leader, with 55% of likely voters saying that description applies more to Bush and just 38% saying it applies more to Kerry.

Bush also does better than Kerry on being "knowledgeable about the issues" (by 7 percentage points), while Kerry fares better than Bush on caring about "the needs of people like you" (by 6 percentage points).

A recent Republican ad criticized Kerry for being too negative about the overall well-being of the country. The "optimism" battle reached a new level when some Democrats touted the sunny optimism of Sen. John Edwards, Kerry's running mate, as an antidote to the Republican charges. However, voters are equally likely to see the two candidates as being optimistic about the country's future.

Despite charges that Bush "misled" the country and world about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, voters are just as likely to say that Bush is "honest and trustworthy" as they are to say that about Kerry. Of course, the "flip-flop" characterization may be hurting Kerry on this trait as well.

Which Issues Affect the Vote?

It would seem clear that not all of these trait evaluations can affect voters' preferences to the same degree. If the flip-flop issue were important, for example, the fact that Bush is rated 24 points better than Kerry should mean that the president would also be leading in his race for re-election. But the poll shows Kerry ahead by a slim 49% to 47% margin among likely voters.

A statistical analysis to determine how strongly each of the traits is correlated with vote choice shows that the most important characteristic -- the one that most strongly relates to how people actually vote -- is "shares your values."

The traits were given "importance scores," which indicate their relative importance to vote choice. The trait with the highest correlation to vote choice ("shares your values") was assigned a value of 100 on this scale. The next-highest trait ("can manage the government effectively") received a score of 49 because its correlation with vote choice is only 49% as powerful as the highest correlation.

Only the top five traits -- which include the party identification of the respondents -- show statistically significant correlations with people's choices for president. Note that party affiliation is not the most important factor in the vote -- people's assessments of the candidates on three issues are more important than party.

The fact that "shares your values" emerges as the top characteristic predicting people's votes may not be surprising. Both campaigns continually stress "values" in their campaign ads and speeches, along with the issues of the economy, Iraq, terrorism, and healthcare.

These results show that "values" are not the only focus; how well the candidates can manage the government is also important. Being "honest and trustworthy" ranks just below managing the government, followed by party affiliation, and finally, voters' overall assessment of which candidate they admire more.

On the four most important traits (excluding party affiliation), voters' evaluations of the candidates are virtually identical -- reflecting in yet another way how close is the election this year.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 19-21, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 709 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.