This week marks the 30th anniversary of the resignation of Richard Nixon as a result of the Watergate scandal. Had Nixon lost the support of the American public by the time of his resignation?
Yes. Nixon's job approval rating was 24% in the last Gallup Poll conducted before he left office. That's within two points of the lowest presidential job approval rating Gallup has ever recorded (Harry Truman had a 22% rating in February 1952).
Perhaps more importantly, 57% of Americans in the August 1974 poll said that Nixon should be impeached, convicted, and removed from office, up from 46% in July of that year. The jump coincided with the release of an audiotape documenting the fact that Nixon had tried to use the CIA to stop the investigation of the Watergate burglary of Democratic national headquarters only six days after it occurred in 1972.
In his resignation speech on Aug. 8, 1974, Nixon said he was leaving office because he had lost the support of Congress. But there is little doubt that having a majority of the country calling for his removal was the underlying reason he felt compelled to resign.
Nixon tried valiantly to overcome the Watergate stigma in the 20 years between his resignation and his death in 1994. Did he succeed?
There are few signs that Nixon's image has undergone a positive renaissance in the years since he left office. In a June 2004 Gallup Poll, 51% of Americans said they believe Nixon will go down in history as a below-average or poor president -- the worst negative rating of any of the 10 presidents rated in the poll.
In March 2002, Gallup asked Americans to rate -- retrospectively -- their approval or disapproval of the job Nixon did while in office. He received a 34% positive rating -- exactly the average for his second term in office. This finding suggests that today, Nixon is seen in roughly the same light as in the year or two just before he was forced to resign.
Last Friday, a less-than-impressive jobs report and high oil prices led to the lowest daily Dow Jones average of the year so far. Where does the public stand on the economy?
There simply aren't any signs indicating the public is convinced that the economy is on a strong road to recovery. Americans have shown occasional signs of economic optimism this year, but the upbeat attitudes simply haven't been sustainable.
The weekend after the Democratic convention, the public's economic expectations took a turn for the worse yet again. Just 48% of Americans said that the economy is getting better, while 43% said it is getting worse. That's a net positive rating of 5 -- way down from the net positive rating of 13 Gallup measured as recently as mid-July.
Additionally, 38% of Americans now rate the current economy as excellent or good. That rating is actually little changed from the last two months -- higher than this year's low point of 32% measured in March, but well below the 2004 high point of 43% in January.
Do you think the economy will be a major issue in the fall election campaign?
Yes. Despite the continuing emphasis on Iraq and terrorism, I think the economy could be the most important issue of all in the campaign.
Reporters may be focused on international issues in part because they're following the lead of Democratic candidate John Kerry. The Democratic convention was largely designed to convince voters that Kerry is up to the task of leading the nation against foreign foes and terrorists. Viewers learned a good deal about his Vietnam experience, and watched as fellow veterans, generals, and admirals lined the stage to support Kerry's candidacy.
But the more I look at our polling data, the more I come back to the crucial importance of the economy in this presidential race. All our evidence suggests that the issue of the economy is not going away.
We have asked voters several times this year to select which of four issues is going to be most important to their vote for president. In all four instances, the economy was most often selected -- beating out healthcare, Iraq, and terrorism.
Most recently, an Aug. 3-5 TIME poll asked Americans: "Which of the following issues is most important to you in deciding how you might vote for president in November?" Given five choices, 27% of Americans chose the economy,19% chose Iraq, 18% chose terrorism, 18% chose moral issues, and 11% said healthcare.
Not surprisingly, Democrats are the most negative partisan group in America, perhaps unwilling to say anything positive while a Republican is in the White House. Only 24% of Democrats say the economy is getting better, and 66% say it's getting worse. In contrast, Republicans are glowingly positive. But a crucial finding for the candidates is that two key groups remain less than overwhelmingly positive: independents, among whom only 43% say the economy is getting better, and Americans who live in the 16 states we consider to be swing, or "showdown" states, only 47% of whom are optimistic.
It's a little puzzling why Kerry doesn't focus more on the economy, considering that he continues to have a decided advantage on the issue compared to Bush. Asked to choose which candidate can handle the economy better in a July 30-Aug. 1 Gallup Poll, 53% of said Kerry and 43% said Bush.
Will Americans be surprised if the Fed raises interests rates this week?
No. For a number of months now, a significant majority of Americans have expected interest rates (and inflation, for that matter) to go up. In our most recent July poll, 78% said they think interest rates will rise over the next six months.
How are Americans reacting to the government's latest terror alert?
It's a confusing time for Americans, who are told on the one hand to be on the alert, but on the other hand to go about their normal business. Also, the fact that the most recent alert was focused only on New York City, Newark, N.J., and Washington, D.C., meant that the vast majority of Americans were not directly affected.
The TIME poll released this weekend showed that only 26% of Americans are being "more careful" as a result of the terrorism alert, while the rest say it's "business as usual." Indeed, the poll found that just about a third of Americans follow the news about the alert levels very carefully.
The other big story in the news this week is the continued fighting in Iraq. Where does the public stand on that issue?
There has been a slight pullback in the percentage of Americans who say that U.S. involvement in the war in Iraq was a mistake. During a period in late June and early July, two separate Gallup Polls found that 54% of Americans believed that the United States had made a mistake in getting involved in Iraq -- the first time a majority had felt this way since the war began in March 2003. But since that time, the percentage saying the war was a mistake has slipped back to 47%, while a bare majority of Americans now say that it was not a mistake.
Americans are fairly pessimistic that either presidential candidate has a plan for handling the situation in Iraq. Forty-two percent say that Bush has a clear plan, while 38% say Kerry has a clear plan for the situation there.
This week, John Kerry will be emphasizing his disagreement with George W. Bush's decision several years ago to limit federal embryonic stem cell research, and the issue achieved prominence at the Democratic convention when Ron Reagan called for relaxed restrictions on stem cell research. How do Americans feel about it?
A May Gallup Poll showed that 54% of Americans believe that "medical research using stem cells obtained from human embryos" is morally acceptable. Thirty-seven percent said that it is morally wrong, while the rest have no opinion or said it depends on the situation.
Voters in Missouri last week approved an amendment to their state's constitution that defined marriage as only between a man and a woman. Is gay marriage a hot issue this year?
More than 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of marriage between same-sex partners. A little less than half (48%) favor a U.S. constitutional amendment that would restrict marriage to a man and a woman.
No polling with which I am familiar indicates that same-sex marriage is going to be a major issue to large numbers of Americans. But the Missouri vote indicates the salience that gay marriage may have to certain groups that could make a difference in a close election. Bush is heavily courting conservative Christians, who mostly oppose same-sex marriage, while a core group of Kerry's base consists of liberal white Americans who favor a broader definition of marriage.
The GOP has been attempting to set expectations that there will be no bounce for Bush after the Republican convention. What do you think?
There's no way to know at this point. Despite all of the focus on what I called "structural explanations" for the lack of a major Kerry bounce after the Democratic convention, I still think conventions can matter. An outstanding Republican performance in New York could give Bush a bounce regardless of what happened in Boston.
The Bush administration sent two women to last Sunday's talk shows to speak about terrorism: national security adviser, Condeleezza Rice, and homeland security adviser, Fran Townsend. Is there still a "gender gap" in the presidential race?
Yes. The precise difference between the voting intentions of men and women varies from poll to poll, but overall there is little question that women are more likely to support Kerry and men are more likely to support Bush.
According to our latest poll, conducted just after the Democratic convention (July 30-Aug. 1), female registered voters choose Kerry over Bush by 51% to 45%, while male registered voters choose Bush by 52% to 45%.