Gap Widens Between “Red” and “Blue” States’ Ratings of Economy

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Recent Gallup Poll data show substantial differences in the way Americans in core Democratic states and those in core Republican states rate the nation's economy. Residents of Republican states express a greater amount of optimism about the economy, while those living in Democratic states show much more pessimism. Americans living in the highly important showdown states -- those that narrowly went for President George W. Bush or former Vice President Al Gore in the 2000 election -- rate the economy somewhere in the middle.

For this analysis, Gallup examined the results of its two basic economic measures that are updated monthly in what Gallup calls the "red" states (states Bush won by more than five percentage points in the 2000 presidential election), the "blue" states (states Gore won by more than five points), and the "purple" states or key showdown states, where the margin of victory for either candidate was five points or less in the 2000 election. The critically important showdown, or "purple," states include Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Rating the Economy

Every month, Gallup asks Americans two questions to assess the overall state of the economy: "How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?" and "Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?"

Since June, the data show that residents of the red (Republican-oriented) states are expressing increased optimism about the economy, while at the same time there is greater pessimism about the economy in the blue (Democratically leaning) states. Perhaps most importantly, ratings of the economy in the purple states fall between the two.

The gap between the economic views of red- and blue-state residents, in fact, is now larger than at any point this year -- providing one more piece of evidence underscoring the extreme polarization of the election landscape in 2004.

The net positive margin for current economic conditions (the percentage rating the economy "excellent" or "good" minus the percentage rating it "poor") in the red states is 24 percentage points, while the net score is only 3 points in the blue states. The net score in the purple states is currently between the scores for the red and blue states, at 17 points.

The most recent data, from the July 30-Aug. 1 poll, also show the widest gap this year between the red and blue states when Americans are asked to say if economic conditions in the country are getting better or getting worse. The net score on this measure (the percentage "getting better" minus the percentage "getting worse") stands at 18 points in the red states, while it is -12 in the blue states. The net score in the purple states is now 4 points.

As the graphs above illustrate, the gap in economic ratings between red and blue states was much smaller in the first part of the year. In fact, the current relatively large gap occurs only in the past two polls, both conducted in July. Generally, the trends show that since June, residents in the red and purple states have become more positive about the current state of the nation's economy, but optimism about the economy was much higher at the very beginning of the year.

This gap between red and blue states does not hold true with all of Gallup's key economic ratings, however. For example, the most recent data indicate only slight variations among residents in these states with regard to the percentage saying now is "a good time to find a quality job." In the red states, 36% of respondents say now is a good time, compared with 34% of those in the blue states and 36% of those in the purple states. The results do show increasing optimism about the job market recently among respondents in the three state groupings.

Gallup's longstanding trend on the "most important problem facing the country" also shows relatively little difference by state in the number of people mentioning the economy as the nation's top problem. The latest results show that 30% of residents in the red states mention some aspect of the economy as the most important problem, just slightly lower than the 35% of residents in the blue states and 34% of residents in the purple states.

Implications for Election '04?

The public's perceptions of the economy in the coming months will almost certainly help to determine which candidate voters pick in this fall's presidential election. Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry continue to focus much of their attention on the key showdown states and continue to talk about the nation's economy. Right now, optimism about the economy in the competitive showdown states has increased since June, but ratings of the economy in these states are neither as optimistic as the red states' ratings nor as pessimistic as the blue states' ratings. This could be good news for Bush, if he can continue to convince voters that his economic policies are sound, but it could also be good news for Kerry, if he can convince voters that new economic leadership is necessary. 

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,518 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 30-Aug. 1, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

7. How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

8. Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?