Iraq still dominates the news, with reports that two more Americans were killed. Where do Americans stand on Iraq?
If anything, Americans have become slightly more positive about Iraq in recent weeks. Our Aug. 9-11 Gallup Poll shows that 49% of Americans feel that Iraq was worth going to war over, while 48% think that it was not. That's the first time the "not worth it" percentage has dropped below 50% since early May. To be sure, the changes we are seeing from survey to survey aren't large, but one can certainly reject the hypothesis that Americans' perceptions of the situation in Iraq have been getting more negative as recent events have unfolded.
Additionally, our July 30-Aug. 1 poll found that slightly less than half of Americans (47%) now say the war was a mistake, down from 54% who felt that way in two consecutive polls in late June and mid-July.
Do Americans think that things are improving in Iraq?
On balance, the perception that things are going badly in Iraq still outweighs the perception that things are going well, but there has been a slight improvement in perceptions. Forty-five percent of Americans now say things are going either moderately or very well in Iraq. In June and July, that number was 40%. People are more positive about Iraq now than they have been since March of this year.
Does this translate into better ratings for President Bush on his handling of Iraq?
Just slightly better. The salient feature of the trends for Bush on Iraq is the fact that the disapproval rating is still above 50% -- 52% in the latest August poll. But disapproval averaged 56.5% over the four previous times Gallup asked this question in May and June, so what we are seeing now reflects a small drop in negativity.
All in all, how would you say Iraq is going to affect the election?
This month, Americans are slightly less likely than in previous months to mention Iraq as the most important problem facing the country. Twenty-one percent of Americans say Iraq is the most important problem -- lower than the 26% and 27% levels found in April, May, and June Gallup Polls.
Other recent polls have given respondents a choice of several issues and asked them which will be most important to their vote. Iraq generally loses out to the economy, which always tops the list on such questions.
This suggests that Iraq may be fading slightly as an important election issue at the moment, despite the fact that it generally dominates the news. But as always, this may change. And it's important to note that Democrats generally are more likely than Republicans to cite Iraq as a major issue, suggesting that the John Kerry-John Edwards ticket may continue to make it a centerpiece of its campaign strategy as November approaches.
Who has an edge on Iraq -- Bush or Kerry?
Neither, and I think that's a key point. Iraq is not a Bush strength, but it's not a Kerry strength either.
There is little question that a majority of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling Iraq, which means that he is vulnerable on the issue. But Kerry does no better, and has apparently been unable to differentiate himself from Bush on Iraq. Only 38% of Americans say that Kerry has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq, slightly lower than the percentage who believe that Bush has a clear plan.
When Gallup asked Americans in a July 30-Aug. 1 Gallup Poll which of the two candidates could better handle Iraq, 48% said Kerry and 47% chose Bush. This rough parity between the two candidates has held across four Gallup Polls conducted since May.
Is there a consensus among Americans on what to do about Iraq?
The American people do not coalesce around a clear strategy on what to do about Iraq at this point. There is no firm majority calling for all troops to be withdrawn immediately, nor is there a sense that a large number of additional troops should be sent to Iraq. Most Americans seem to adopt a stance of short-term troop retention in Iraq, with a longer-term focus on figuring out a way to withdraw troops.
Gallup has asked the public five times this year about the "number of U.S. troops in Iraq" and in each instance, a third or less of Americans chose the two extreme alternatives -- sending in more troops or withdrawing all troops. Instead, Americans seem divided between the other two alternatives -- keeping troop levels as they are now or withdrawing some troops.
Other polls have found similar results. In no major poll recently have a majority of Americans said that troops should all be brought home immediately.
What's the status of the presidential race?
How many times can one say that the presidential race is too close to call? Bush maintains a slight (statistically insignificant) lead among both likely voters and registered voters. It looks like things are going to remain fairly steady until the Republican convention, when the big question will be how big of a bounce Bush will get.
One clear indicator of an incumbent's success in his election year is job approval. What is George W. Bush's job approval right now?
For the first time since April, Bush's job approval rating has risen above 50%. It's now at 51%, with disapproval at 46%. That's only a slight increase, but symbolically important. All five of the most recent presidents who have won re-election had job approval ratings consistently above 50% during their election years, while none of the last three who lost had approval ratings above 50%.
It's too early to tell if this is an upward trend or a momentary blip that will settle back down, but I certainly think that there is a reasonably high probability that Bush's job approval rating will go up more during the coming GOP convention.
Is protecting against terrorism still Bush's greatest strength as perceived by the American public?
Yes. Our latest poll asked Americans to say whether they approve or disapprove of Bush in five specific areas. The president's approval rating was above 50% on only one -- terrorism, at 57%. Bush received roughly identical sub-50% ratings on the other four issues tested: 47% on education, 44% on foreign affairs, 46% on the economy, and 45% on Iraq.
Did the recent terrorism alerts make a difference in Americans' psyches?
There has been little change in American concern about terrorism. About a third (34%) of Americans now say they are either somewhat or very worried about terrorism -- slightly lower than the 40% who were worried in February. But 18% of Americans now mention terrorism as the most important problem facing the country today, up slightly from previous polls this year.
What about the economy?
Americans have become slightly less positive about the direction of the economy. For the first time since May, a slight plurality (46%) say that economic conditions are getting worse, compared with 45% who say conditions are getting better. As recently as July, a much healthier 51% said the economy was getting better, compared with 38% who said it was getting worse.
In similar fashion, the percentage of Americans who feel that the economy is the nation's most important problem is up slightly to 41%. About the same percentage mentioned the economy in April, May, and June, but only 33% felt the economy was the most important problem in July, as America experienced a slight burst of economic optimism.
Does decreased economic optimism mean that American workers are dissatisfied with their personal job situations?
Apparently not. There are certainly some, like Kerry and Edwards, who argue that worker dissatisfaction has been increasing. Edwards has made it his signature claim that there are "two Americas" today, and Kerry consistently talks about the middle-class squeeze affecting the nation's workers. But in reality, workers are slightly more satisfied with their jobs now than at any time since Gallup began measuring worker happiness about 15 years ago.
The basic facts of the matter are these: According to the Aug. 9-11 poll, 59% of adult Americans are employed either full or part time. (The rest are retired, homemakers, students, or are unemployed.) Exactly 50% of these working Americans indicate that they are completely satisfied with their jobs today. Another 39% are somewhat satisfied. Just 11% of workers are either somewhat or completely dissatisfied.
These numbers are remarkably more positive than they were when Gallup first asked the worker satisfaction question in 1989. At that time, only 28% of workers indicated that they were completely satisfied with their jobs. Even as recently as last summer, just 44% of U.S. workers were completely satisfied.
What are workers most satisfied about?
Of course, satisfaction varies substantially when we ask workers about specific aspects of their jobs. They are most likely to report being completely satisfied with their relations with coworkers, the physical safety conditions of their workplaces, the flexibility of their hours, and their bosses. At the other end of the spectrum, workers are less likely to be completed satisfied with -- not surprisingly -- the amount of money they earn, workplace stress, retirement benefits, health insurance, and chances for promotion.
Would most workers quit if they could?
No. The relatively low levels of satisfaction with pay and benefits aren't enough to make workers wish they could just up and quit. We asked workers, "If you won $10 million in the lottery, would you continue to work, or would you stop working?" The perhaps surprising results: 55% of employees would continue working, and two-thirds of workers in that group say they would even stay at their current jobs. All in all, 44% of workers say they would quit.
The Olympics are underway in Athens. Preliminary indications are that television ratings in the United States have been less than overwhelming. Do Americans care about the Olympics?
The August Gallup Poll found that interest in watching the Olympics this year is about the same as for the 2000 Summer Olympics in Sydney and also for the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. But according to the poll, 71% of Americans were able to spontaneously name the location of the 2004 Olympics as Athens or Greece. This level of awareness is much higher than it was in June 1952, when only 28% knew the Olympics were to be held in Helsinki, Finland, or in July 1948, when just 37% identified the Olympic venue as London or England.
Which Olympic events are Americans most interested in?
Interest in events varies widely by gender, perhaps not surprisingly. Women say that their favorite Summer Olympic sports to watch are gymnastics and swimming (both at 25%), followed by track and field (10%). Men, on the other hand, identify track and field (25%), followed by swimming (17%). Men are much less likely than women to mention gymnastics. Few Americans mention basketball as their favorite Summer Olympic sport -- regardless of gender.