At 8:30 a.m. on Aug. 6, economists once again experienced a familiar feeling of surprise when the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy added only 32,000 new jobs in July. Since then, economic experts have invoked everything from seasonal fluctuations, to increased labor costs, to the situation in Iraq in explaining this disappointing number, and the reality is that job growth is unlikely to rebound before the coming election. Recent data from Gallup's Work and Education poll* reveal Americans' views on what could be a key election issue.
The Most Important Problem
As the payroll numbers for July (reported in early August) remained essentially unchanged, the number of Americans who are worried about jobs increased. Twenty-one percent of Americans name the economy in general as their top economic concern, but Americans are more concerned about the employment situation than any other specific economic problem facing the country today. In answer to an open-ended question on what is the most important problem facing the country today, 15% of Americans mentioned unemployment or jobs in August, up from 10% in July, and about where it was earlier this year.
Good Time to Look for a Job?
Americans remain pessimistic about the job market in the United States -- 63% say that now is a "bad time to find a quality job." But sentiment on this issue has improved significantly since last year. The percentage of Americans saying now is a bad time to go job hunting exceeded 80% in March and August 2003.
What Employees Worry About
What do those currently on the job worry about most? The media have devoted a great deal of attention to outsourcing, but workers are least worried about this possibility. When presented with a list of job-related concerns (including outsourcing), the highest percentage of working Americans are worried that their benefits will be reduced (28%). Twenty percent worry that they will be laid off and 17% worry their wages will be reduced.
Gallup's poll does find a decrease in the percentage of American workers who report layoffs at their place of employment. In August 2003, 34% of employed Americans said that their organizations had laid off employees in the past six months. That number has fallen to 26% in August 2004.
Bottom Line
About one in three American workers are concerned that their benefits will be reduced. As it turns out, these two worries are inextricably linked. Companies faced with the rising cost of providing health benefits to their employees are often forced to downsize or delay hiring. Given the intricacy and intermingling of the issues, it looks like it is going to take more than a friendly business cycle to create jobs.
*Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 9-11, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 580 adults employed full or part-time, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
