Another Photo Finish in Store for Florida?

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in Florida confirms the findings of Gallup's previous survey in that state, conducted in July, showing a very close race between President George W. Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry. According to the Aug. 20-22 survey, Bush currently leads Kerry among likely voters in Florida by a slight, but not statistically significant margin: 48% to 46%. Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who is waiting for papers to be filed on his behalf by the Florida Reform Party to be included on the Florida election ballot, garners 2%.

When Nader voters are asked whom they would choose in the event their candidate does not earn a spot on the Florida ballot, Kerry picks up one point, making the race virtually tied at 48% for Bush and 47% for Kerry.

With the number of Republicans and Democrats falling into Gallup's likely voter pool running about even, Bush's slight lead in Florida is mostly owed to the fact that the percentage of Republicans supporting Bush (90%) is higher than the percentage of Democrats supporting Kerry (84%). But that advantage is precarious because political independents favor Kerry by a rather strong margin: 51% to 36%.

The poll also suggests that Bush performs slightly better among men than women in the Sunshine State. Mirroring the gender break seen in July, women favor Kerry by a 2-point margin, 49% to 47%, while men favor Bush by 5 points, 49% to 44%. In July women favored Kerry by 3 points -- 50% to 47% -- while men favored Bush by 10 points -- 53% to 43%.

Also, Kerry leads in southern Florida, while Bush has a strong hold on central and northern Florida.

The Non-Political Storms

Three in four respondents (74%) say they are paying "quite a lot" of attention to the race for president. That is slightly higher than the 68% of Americans paying such close attention to the election according to a national Aug. 9-11 Gallup survey.

But Floridians clearly had another issue on their minds at the same time: the aftermath of Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley -- storms that hit the state about a week or so before the latest poll. About half of Florida's adults say that the threat of hurricanes generally, worries them. Fifty-two percent say they are either very or somewhat worried that they or their families will "suffer significant property damage or financial loss caused by a hurricane in the area where you live." Forty-six percent indicate little to no worry about this.

Indeed, 17% of the state's adults say they have personally experienced losses as a direct result of a hurricane. One in 10 Floridians say they personally suffered in recent days due to either Tropical Storm Bonnie or Hurricane Charley, specifically.

Both President Bush and his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, receive high marks from state residents for their handling of the situation. Seven in 10 Florida adults (71%) say they approve of the way President Bush handled the response to the hurricanes. This is only slightly lower than the 76% who approve of Governor Bush's performance.

Hurricane Charley is reported to be the most severe storm to hit Florida since Hurricane Andrew pounded the state on Aug. 24, 1992. At that time, President Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, was running for re-election. A CBS News/New York Times poll conducted in September 1992 found that 61% of Floridians approved of the way the elder President Bush handled the aftermath of that hurricane. The elder Bush narrowly carried Florida in the 1992 election, beating former President Bill Clinton by approximately two percentage points, 41% to 39%, with former Reform Party candidate Ross Perot taking just about 20%.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected sample of 1,002 Florida adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 20-22, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Results for likely voters in Florida are based on the subsample of 671 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 Presidential Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Florida, turnout is assumed to be 50% of the voting age population.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

4. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, (or) Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates]?

4A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans (or) Nader and Camejo, the independents]?

Trend for Comparison: Latest National Results

2. (Asked of Nader voters) If Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in your state on Election Day, would you vote for -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

Re-calculated two-candidate race

10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush has handled the response to the hurricanes that hit Florida last week?

Trend for Comparison: George H.W. Bush

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush has handled the response to Hurricane Andrew? (Source: CBS/New York Times poll)

11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Jeb Bush has handled the response to the hurricanes that hit Florida last week?