Three States Gore Won in 2000 Show Close Race

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In three states that former Vice President Al Gore won in 2000, and that Sen. John Kerry will probably need to win in 2004 if he is to become the next president of the United States, the contest between Kerry and President George W. Bush is close. A new set of CNN/USA Today/Gallup state polls, conducted Aug. 23-26, finds Kerry leading Bush by six points among likely voters in Iowa, Kerry trailing Bush by three points in Wisconsin, and a dead heat in Pennsylvania.

THREE-WAY CONTEST FOR PRESIDENT AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

BUSH VS. KERRY VS. NADER

The maximum margin of error for the estimate of each candidate's support in each of the three state polls is ±5 percentage points. This means in theory that neither major candidate enjoys a statistically significant lead in any of the three states.

Gore's margin of victory in each of the three states was small, so it is not surprising that the states are very competitive once again in 2004.

• Among the three states, the closest contest in 2000 was in Wisconsin, which Gore won by just under 6,000 votes out of 2.6 million. The percentage was 47.83% for Gore, 47.61% for Bush -- a difference of .22 percentage points.

• Gore's victory in Iowa in 2000 was not much larger -- 48.54% to Bush's 48.22%, for a difference of .32 percentage points. This amounted to a 4,144-vote margin out of more than 1.3 million votes cast.

• Gore won by little more than four percentage points in Pennsylvania, 50.60% to 46.43% -- about 205,000 votes more than Bush out of 4.9 million votes.

Among all registered voters, Kerry fares better in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (on the three-way ballot) than he does among likely voters. On the two-way ballot, Kerry fares better in all three states among registered than among likely voters. These results suggest that in all three states, Republicans are a little more likely to turn out to vote than are Democrats. The differences in estimates of vote preferences between likely and registered voters underscores the importance that each party places on getting out the vote among its core supporters.

Among registered voters on the three-way ballot, the poll shows Kerry with a six-point lead both in Iowa and in Pennsylvania, and a two-point lead in Wisconsin. Again, these differences are within the polls' margins of error.

THREE-WAY CONTEST FOR PRESIDENT AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS

BUSH VS. KERRY VS. NADER

Nader's presence in the race has only a slight impact on the relative support for Bush and Kerry, although in a very close race, Nader's votes could still make a crucial difference. The poll results suggest -- contrary to conventional wisdom -- that Nader might actually help Kerry among likely voters in Iowa and Pennsylvania and have no effect in Wisconsin.

• Kerry's margin is one point higher in Iowa with Nader included on the ballot than it is without Nader.
  
  
  
• Bush's one-point lead in Pennsylvania in the two-way race is reduced to a dead heat with Nader on the ballot.

• In Wisconsin, Nader has no impact: Bush has a three-point lead in the poll in either the two-way or three-way race.

TWO-WAY CONTEST FOR PRESIDENT AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

BUSH VS. KERRY

These results need to be viewed with caution, given the margins of error and the small differences in support when Nader is on the ballot and when he is not. But the results at least suggest that Nader's candidacy is not hurting Kerry in these three states at this time.

War and the Economy

The ratings of the economy in each of the three states are quite similar to the rating measured by Gallup nationally. Less than half of likely voters rate their state's economy as excellent or good. 

How would you rate economic conditions in (your state/this country) today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Similarly, likely voters in Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin reflect the views of the country more generally on their attitudes about the Iraq war. Slightly more voters say the war was not a mistake than say it was.

In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

A question asked in the three states, but not in the national poll, shows that most voters in those states tend to believe that Kerry is telling the truth about his war record, despite charges by other Vietnam veterans that he has exaggerated his actions. By margins of about 2-to-1 or greater, voters say Kerry is either definitely or probably telling the truth, rather than probably or definitely lying.

Based on what you have heard or read about John Kerry's accounts of his military service in the Vietnam War, do you think Kerry is -- [ROTATED: definitely telling the truth about his military service in Vietnam, probably telling the truth, probably lying, (or) definitely lying about his military service in Vietnam]?

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 747 registered voters in Iowa, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 23-26, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results for likely voters in Iowa are based on the subsample of 606 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 presidential election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Iowa, turnout is assumed to be 65% of the voting-age population.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 879 registered voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 23-26, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results for likely voters in Pennsylvania are based on the subsample of 729 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 presidential election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Pennsylvania, turnout is assumed to be 55% of the voting-age population.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 737 registered voters in Wisconsin, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 23-26, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Results for likely voters in Wisconsin are based on the subsample of 645 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 presidential election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Based on past voting history in Wisconsin, turnout is assumed to be 65% of the voting-age population.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.