GOP Convention “Leadership” Theme Plays to Bush’s Strength

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush is playing to his political forte by staging the Republican National Convention in the emotional shadow of Ground Zero in New York City -- the symbolic epicenter of the threat of terrorism -- and encouraging opening-night speakers to focus on the "leadership in dangerous times" message to hail his presidency.

A pre-GOP convention CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Aug. 23-25, finds Bush leading his opponent, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, by 20 points in public perceptions that he is a "strong and decisive leader." Bush leads by 17 points as the candidate better able to handle terrorism. At the same time, he leads Kerry by only three points among likely voters in the race for president -- 50% to 47%. Clearly, voters have priorities other than terrorism in mind when making their vote choice, and clearly Bush's re-election team is trying to change that this week.

Bush fares well on most aspects of the presidential qualities tested in the poll. At worst he is statistically tied with Kerry on some perceptual dimensions, such as for being honest and trustworthy and for having an optimistic vision for the future. Bush and Kerry are more closely rated when it comes to perceptions of who is better able to handle a variety of policy issues. Bush has a strong lead on terrorism, just as Kerry has a strong lead on Medicare. The two are closely matched on the other four issues rated, including on the key issue of the economy.

Bush's Image Rebounds After the Democratic National Convention

Bush's job of presenting a positive image this week has been made somewhat easier by the fact that the modestly positive effects of last month's Democratic convention on Kerry's public image have dissipated. Whether this is the result of the long pause between the conventions, or due to the criticism of Kerry's war record and character being made by a group of Vietnam Swift Boat veterans, is not clear. But the result is that Bush has re-solidified his image as a strong and steady leader, has reclaimed the perceptual edge as the candidate better able to handle Iraq, and has narrowed the gap with Kerry in the perception that he can handle the economy. At the same time, Gallup has seen no change in the overall horse race, with Bush consistently leading Kerry by three to four percentage points since the conclusion of the Democratic convention.

Bush now has solid advantages over Kerry in the perceptions that he is a strong and decisive leader, stands up for what he believes in, and can manage the government effectively.

Bush is also more likely to be seen as "a person you admire," and as "honest and trustworthy," but by smaller margins.

In a separate question, Bush leads Kerry by an eight-point margin, 51% to 43%, as the candidate most trusted to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief.

Bush stands about even with Kerry on four other qualities: "shares your values," "understands complex issues," "has an optimistic vision for the country's future," and "cares about the needs of people like you."

Bush and Kerry are more evenly matched in public perceptions of their ability to handle six different issues facing the nation. Each candidate has one strong suit -- Bush's being terrorism and Kerry's being Medicare -- while the gaps in their ratings are within the margin of error on the other four issues measured: the situation in Iraq, taxes, education, and the economy.

The Battle for Independents

To attract more voter support, Bush and Kerry seem compelled to appeal to independent voters. According to the latest poll, both candidates are already supported by roughly 9 out of 10 members of their own party -- and as history suggests, that figure is unlikely to increase much further. The target of opportunity is political independents, who currently favor Kerry over Bush by a 13-point margin, 52% to 39%.

In focusing on his image as a strong leader, Bush is tapping into a perception that resonates well with independent voters (who otherwise tend to favor Kerry). By more than 2-to-1, (54% vs. 25%) independents say the phrase "a strong and decisive leader" applies more to Bush than it does to Kerry. Independents also favor Bush over Kerry as someone who stands up for what he believes in and who can manage the government effectively.

Similarly, the Republican convention's focus on the terrorist threat to the United States plays into Bush's one issue strength with independent voters, as recorded in the latest survey. Close to half of independents (48%) name Bush as better able to handle terrorism, versus only 36% who name Kerry. Bush and Kerry are about at parity among independents on Iraq and taxes, while Kerry has a strong edge on three important domestic issues: education, the economy, and Medicare.

Bush's convention-week gamble is that he will have more success attracting independents to his candidacy by raising the relevance of his leadership skills with the ongoing threat of terrorism as a backdrop, than he would at persuading these same voters that he is better than Kerry on other issues, such as the economy and Medicare.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 23-25, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 524 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 480 national adults in the Form B half-sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

10. Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

BASED ON 524 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

A. The economy

B. The situation in Iraq

C. Terrorism

D. Medicare

E. Education

F. Taxes

SUMMARY TABLE: ADVANTAGE ON ISSUES

11. Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to John Kerry or more to George W. Bush. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

BASED ON 480 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

A. Can manage the government effectively

B. Cares about the needs of people like you

C. Has an optimistic vision for the country's future

D. Is a strong and decisive leader

E. Is a person you admire

F. Is honest and trustworthy

G. Shares your values

H. Stands up for what he believes in

I. Understands complex issues

SUMMARY TABLE: ADVANTAGE ON PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TRAITS

12. Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of the military -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?