Bush Bounce Keeps On Going

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In a new Gallup Poll, conducted Sept. 13-15, President George W. Bush leads Democratic candidate John Kerry by 55% to 42% among likely voters, and by 52% to 44% among registered voters. These figures represent a significant improvement for Bush since just before the beginning of the Republican National Convention.

In the immediate aftermath of that convention, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush receiving a modest bounce from his standing before the convention. Among likely voters, Bush's support was up two points and Kerry's was down two points. Among the larger sample of registered voters, Bush's support was up two points, while Kerry's was unchanged. 

The bounce was small, whether measured among the likely or the registered voter groups, so that it was well within the margin of error of the post-convention poll. Given the sample sizes of the two groups, one could not say with 95% certainty that Bush's support had actually increased.

Now, in the new poll, the figures show Bush with a 13-point lead over Kerry among likely voters and an 8-point lead among registered voters. Both sets of figures represent significant increases in Bush's standing in the race since just before the beginning of the Republican convention in late August, when likely voters chose Bush over Kerry by a slight three-point margin (50% to 47%), and registered voters leaned toward Kerry by an even smaller margin of one point (48% to 47%). 

KERRY VS. BUSH
AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

KERRY VS. BUSH
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS

Bush's job approval rating has not changed in the past week and a half, though it did increase from 49% before the Republican National Convention to 52% right after -- where it has remained.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush  is handling his job as president?

Minor Candidates Barely Known by Public

After being asked whom they would vote for in a two-way ballot, poll respondents were asked a six-way ballot that included independent candidate Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik, Green Party candidate David Cobb, and Constitution Party candidate Michael Peroutka. Those candidates should appear on the ballot in half the states or more. 

SIX-WAY BALLOT
INCLUDING MINOR-PARTY CANDIDATES

Nader receives 3% support among likely voters and 4% among registered voters. Badnarik garners 1% support among each group, while the other two candidates receive less than one-half of 1% support. The results for the minor-party candidates may be slight overestimates because the candidates will not appear on all 50 state ballots, as Bush and Kerry will.

Respondents were also asked to indicate whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of the candidates, or if they had never heard of the candidates. Among the minor-party contenders, only Nader is recognized by the vast majority of Americans (just 4% say they have never heard of him). By contrast, large majorities have never heard of Badnarik (65%), Cobb (58%), and Peroutka (69%).

If only those who give the candidates a rating are counted, 23% of Americans know enough of Badnarik to rate him either favorably or unfavorably, compared with 27% for Cobb, and 18% for Peroutka. It is also possible that some of the ratings were given not because respondents knew of the candidates, but because of their perceptions of the parties the candidates represent.

Younger Voters Show Greatest Change in Past Three Weeks

The poll shows that among registered voters, people under age 50 are more likely to change their minds than people in the 50 to 64 age group, and those 65 and older. Kerry had a one-point advantage (48% to 47%) among 18- to 49-year-old voters just before the Republican National Convention, but now Bush enjoys a 13-point lead among this group (54% to 41%). This represents a net increase in Bush's standing of 14 percentage points.

The other two age groups show much smaller changes. Among the middle age group (50 to 64), Kerry gains slightly. Now Bush leads Kerry in this group by 50% to 49%, while he led by 51% to 44% three weeks ago.

In the oldest age group (65+), Bush trailed Kerry by five points three weeks ago (50% to Kerry to 45% for Bush), but now Bush has a one-point advantage (48% to 47%).

Bush gained about equally among men (his lead is up nine points) and women (up eight points). Three weeks ago, Bush had a 6-point advantage among men (51% to 45%), while today that advantage is 15 points (56% to 41%). Similarly, Bush trailed Kerry by seven points among women three weeks ago (51% for Kerry to 44% for Bush), but Bush is up by one point now (49% to 48%).

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,022 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 13-15, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 767 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults.  The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 935 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2.         Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates.  Would you vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

2A.      As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

Q.2/2A CONTINUED

Next, I'm going to read a list of six candidates for president who may appear on the ballot in a significant number of states this November. Supposing that all of these candidates were on the ballot in your state, which one would you be most likely to vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, Ralph Nader, the Independent or Reform Party candidate, Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Party candidate, David Cobb, the Green Party candidate, Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party candidate] or will you be voting for someone else?

3A.      As of today which one of these candidates do you lean toward -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, Ralph Nader, the Independent or Reform Party candidate, Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Party candidate, David Cobb, the Green Party candidate, Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party candidate] or will you be voting for someone else?

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Q.34 ASKED OF A HALF SAMPLE

34.       Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news.  As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.  First, ... How about... [ITEMS A-B READ, HALF SAMPLE READ ITEMS C-F ROTATED, HALF SAMPLE READ ITEMS G-H ROTATED AND THEN ITEMS I-J ROTATED]

BASED ON  508 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

A. George W. Bush

Q.34 CONTINUED

 B. John Kerry

C. Ralph Nader

 D. Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Party candidate for president

E. David Cobb, the Green Party candidate for president

F. Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party candidate for president